Arctic cold and new threat emerges for the 26th. Patience Grasshoppers.

[78Blizzard]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

That’s a weird system on the gfs. Like a compact low circulating milder air around it. Check out 925.

Also, h5 @ hr138 completely different from both Euro and CMC.

[mreaves]

31 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Icon has nothing 

See starting the thread early has already ginxed it. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, weathafella said:

This ones the signature storm of the season.  Go go go!  Thanks for getting the thread started Steve.   

I think either this or early March will be.

[PhineasC]

Decent agreement on the globals for this range. Game on. 36” depth in Randolph by mid next week?

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think either this early March will be.

Early Morch is spring this year 

[Torch Tiger]

54 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

...Who cares if a thread is made this far out? I know some criticized John for his thread last week, well in advance for tomorrow's storm, but honestly, who gives a sh.it.  It's like the radio, if you don't like what's on then turn it off, and avoid the station.  My guess is that more people than not venture into these long range threads to take a peek, if only for the long range, voyeuristic view into what could be...Then if the trend turns ugly those same people cry foul for such an early thread.

Like JC said, a thread doesn't affect anything.  If you believe in the voodoo juju affecting winter storms in real life then see a witch doctor. 
 

it reduces the silly la-la land model clutter in other threads

[HoarfrostHubb]

7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Early Morch is spring this year 

It will be going out with a bang

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

It will be going out with a bang

Early end 

[Ginx snewx]

GEFS

[WinterWolf]

That’s showing Monday…so the timing is a lil questionable I guess? Some had Sunday didn’t they? 

[MJO812]

2 waves

Timing issues

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

That’s showing Monday…so the timing is a lil questionable I guess? Some had Sunday didn’t they? 

Lol it's a week away and that's 24 hr precip

[PhineasC]

Looks like 12z Euro lost it.

[JC-CT]

Wave spacing on the euro is trash. Good thing it will still change

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Lol it's a week away and that's 24 hr precip

Oh I realize that.  Ya it’ll change around a lot over the next week. 

[ORH_wxman]

Yeah euro is zilch. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

She gone on the euro 

[78Blizzard]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

She gone on the euro 

Amazing, the lack of run-to-run consistency at the mid range lately.

[Henry's Weather]

Just now, 78Blizzard said:

Amazing, the lack of run-to-run consistency at the mid range lately.

really? TBH the models seem to have been excellent recently 

[CoastalWx]

Having deterministic models all over the place a week out is perfectly normal. 

[CoastalWx]

Check the ensembles.

[Allsnow]

TPV sitting over NNE Fanny the following week 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 minute ago, Henry's Weather said:

really? TBH the models seem to have been excellent recently 

They nailed this current system being dog shit like a week out, but I’m sure with the next threat this coming weekend it’ll waffle around until it ultimately misses

[cleetussnow]

Start thread: Euro trashes

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

TPV sitting over NNE Fanny the following week 

Jeez

[78Blizzard]

5 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

They nailed this current system being dog shit like a week out, but I’m sure with the next threat this coming weekend it’ll waffle around until it ultimately misses

Here's the Euro at 6 days out for the current sh!tstorm.  They started catching a clue after that.

 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, 78Blizzard said:

Here's the Euro at 6 days out for the current sh!tstorm.  They started catching a clue after that.

 

Yeah it was really inside of 6 days. More like 132 hours or so. 
 

But even this past system was an exception to the rule. You typically won’t see model guidance honing in with such small Run to run changes 5 days out. 

[78Blizzard]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Check the ensembles.

Didn't you say that with the current one until they finally caved to the op?

[CoastalWx]

Just now, 78Blizzard said:

Didn't you say that with the current one until they finally caved to the op?

The ensembles are meant to identify stuff in the longer term. So using them to see if there is a storm signal a week out would be a good idea. 

[JC-CT]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah it was really inside of 6 days. More like 132 hours or so. 
 

But even this past system was an exception to the rule. You typically won’t see model guidance honing in with such small Run to run changes 5 days out. 

Yeah the gefs were basically OTS and then jumped 1,000 miles in one run and it was fairly locked in from there...relatively speaking.