Arctic cold and new threat emerges for the 26th. Patience Grasshoppers.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, JC-CT said:

It really already started to at 6z

Yup, but I got flamed for posting it got worse. People don’t want to hear the truth, so it’s not even worth giving your thoughts.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

I personally fell the Euro is out to lunch on the 22nd.  

True.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

I personally fell the Euro is out to lunch on the 22nd.  

It has no support, anyone thinking rationally about the threat would think it’s very suspect 

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Yup, but I got flamed for posting it got worse. People don’t want to hear the truth, so it’s not even worth giving your thoughts.

I think some people might feel that there is a "broken clock is right twice a day" dynamic at play

[MJO812]

Gfs holds back the energy  for Sunday  and the Euro doesn't for Saturday. Weird thing is that the Euro is the one that usually holds back energy.

Both models do have a coastal now but 1 day later.

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Yup, but I got flamed for posting it got worse. People don’t want to hear the truth, so it’s not even worth giving your thoughts.

I'm not going to put lipstick on a pig, If its not looking like its there, I'm going to tell it like it is, If i'm wrong, I'm wrong.

[Damage In Tolland]

Beer, weed, anger 

In no particular order 

[mahk_webstah]

5 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

I personally fell.   the Euro is out to lunch on the 22nd.  

Was it a physical or moral fall?  I hope you are okay, and have risen.  Yes on the Euro.  The GFS has led the way a few times this winter.  It's been interesting.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, JC-CT said:

I think some people might feel that there is a "broken clock is right twice a day" dynamic at play

Maybe, but people didn’t like it last storm either, and that ended up a dud as well.

Im not going to get into semantics with people. No other guidance has any real interest in the threat and the euro got worse at 6z. Those are indisputable facts.

Maybe the euro at 12z is zonked and we start to get more support; but that currently is not the case 

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Maybe, but people didn’t like it last storm either, and that ended up a dud as well.

Im not going to get into semantics with people. No other guidance has any real interest in the threat and the euro got worse at 6z. Those are indisputable facts.

Maybe the euro at 12z is zonked and we start to get more support; but that currently is not the case 

there's always the next [model fantasy] one!

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Beer, weed, anger 

In no particular order 

Left one out............

[MJO812]

Cmc is not even close

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, dryslot said:

I'm not going to put lipstick on a pig, If its not looking like its there, I'm going to tell it like it is, If i'm wrong, I'm wrong.

Yeah, I don't BS around when I'm looking at models.  Tell it like I see it.

And verbatim the GFS is ever so close to a huge hit on the 24th.  Need to sharpen up the trough a tad.

[Great Snow 1717]

9 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Gfs looks like hot dung for Saturday. Given other models… it’s more likely that the euro folds like a cheap suit for Saturday than the other way around 

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Yeah, I don't BS around when I'm looking at models.  Tell it like I see it.

And verbatim the GFS is ever so close to a huge hit on the 24th.  Need to sharpen up the trough a tad.

If some don't like to hear it, Then they can ignore me......lol, That one wouldn't take much on the 24th, I think the Euro is focused on the wrong one., We shall see.

[Torch Tiger]

anyone looking for a "big dog" in this pattern is going to probably be disappointed.  A few forgettable light events seem more reasonable.

[PhineasC]

One of these will start looking good and then screw a bunch of us 48 hours out. 

[snowgeek]

People love to bully models in here.  Models are tools with known biases.  We are lucky to have so many tools to help us play this game we call who's weenie gonna get snowed on.  Saying the Euro sucks doesn't add to the constructive discussion in here.  Waste of a post....every time.  That being said, I think that this one is out to sea.  Nothing stopping it's longitudinal progression.   But ona positive note, we got a nice blocking high!  Too bad the low doens't look to be in a fighting mode.  Just gonna quietly slip away.

[Great Snow 1717]

The positivity is this thread is heading downhill rapidly....

[PhineasC]

GFS looks fine for the 24th to me? I don’t get the wailing and gnashing of teeth at this range. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, Great Snow 1717 said:

The positivity is this thread is heading downhill rapidly....

And I thought I was bringing it back. 

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

GFS looks fine for the 24th to me? I don’t get the wailing and gnashing of teeth at this range. 

I even like the clipper after that threat, That has popped up for several days now.

[dryslot]

Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

And I thought I was bringing it back. 

Some need to get hit with the reality hammer first.............

[JC-CT]

One thing people should keep in mind, especially when thinking about after the 22nd, is that model continuity is pretty poor right now regarding these shortwaves over the CONUS. Even at 60hrs out, there are some pretty big changes happening from run to run...more than we saw with the last system.

[Great Snow 1717]

2 minutes ago, snowgeek said:

People love to bully models in here.  Models are tools with known biases.  We are lucky to have so many tools to help us play this game we call who's weenie gonna get snowed on.  Saying the Euro sucks doesn't add to the constructive discussion in here.  Waste of a post....every time.  That being said, I think that this one is out to sea.  Nothing stopping it's longitudinal progression.   But ona positive note, we got a nice blocking high!  Too bad the low doens't look to be in a fighting mode.  Just gonna quietly slip away.

I'd much rather have 1 really good model that can be relied upon than several mediocre models. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

12z GEFS flatter with the 22nd.

[Great Snow 1717]

5 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

And I thought I was bringing it back. 

Trust me your efforts will not go unnoticed by some individuals!!

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

GFS looks fine for the 24th to me? I don’t get the wailing and gnashing of teeth at this range. 

It's a defense mechanism for many on here to whine. The GFS actually improved a little for 1/22 even though it still misses. Bit I do think the 1/24 threat has more room to work with even though there are still some minor spacing issues with the 1/22 wave ahead of it.

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

12z GEFS flatter with the 22nd.

It blew chunks with the last storm

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

10 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Cmc is not even close

You’ll have a good stretch soon, stay with us friend.

 

Just now, JC-CT said:

One thing people should keep in mind, especially when thinking about after the 22nd, is that model continuity is pretty poor right now regarding these shortwaves over the CONUS. Even at 60hrs out, there are some pretty big changes happening from run to run...more than we saw with the last system.

Yup. We maybe get a more consolidated system on the 24th as a result. We’ll see. Until then, patience amongst the sea of chaos.