Arctic cold and new threat emerges for the 26th. Patience Grasshoppers.

[weathafella]

16 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

Isn't that what I hinted at? 

Yes.  But I think the players have much more to lose.  Free agents aren’t getting signed and owners can afford to lose half a season or more.  I’m not optimistic and hopefully wrong.

[bristolri_wx]

1 hour ago, JC-CT said:

Commercial flights have rebounded from 2020, but still aren't close to pre-covid levels...still something around 25% lower. I don't see how that wouldn't have an effect.

Cool graphs to play around with https://www.flightradar24.com/data/statistics

Good point - didn't even think of that, forgot the weather sensor data on commercial flights.  Also I think the fast flow that Tip is often talking about is a problem - all these waves are moving quickly and start out in locations where data sampling is minimal.  The best guesses made by the models just aren't accurate for this type of pattern until things get closer to "go time".

[78Blizzard]

4 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Yes.  But I think the players have much more to lose.  Free agents aren’t getting signed and owners can afford to lose half a season or more.  I’m not optimistic and hopefully wrong.

I think players making millions/year can afford to lose half a season as well.  It's not like they're living paycheck to paycheck. 

[JC-CT]

Hi, I seem to be lost, I'm looking for the NBA thread? 

[78Blizzard]

At this point, I'll take what the NAM 12k and 3k are selling for Thursday.

[NotSureWeather]

4 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

At this point, I'll take what the NAM 12k and 3k are selling for Thursday.

I’ll take any and all snow please. 

[JC-CT]

 

[weathafella]

6 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

I think players making millions/year can afford to lose half a season as well.  It's not like they're living paycheck to paycheck. 

But without baseball most of the young players are no longer rich.  Owners are rich no matter what and they’re pissed off.

[weathafella]

6 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

At this point, I'll take what the NAM 12k and 3k are selling for Thursday.

Get on the thread-I just found it!

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

 

 

 

[JC-CT]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

 

 

Have you ever seen something so ugly? lol

just like...weather, what u even doin right now

[Sugarloaf1989]

2 hours ago, 8611Blizz said:

At least it will be cold...

My first car, a 1989 Camaro. Very unreliable.  Went through 2 transmissions and many component failures. 

[forkyfork]

oopsie poopsie 

[JC-CT]

Just now, forkyfork said:

oopsie poopsie 

did a forky make a doodoo in his diaper?

[BombsAway1288]

1 hour ago, mahk_webstah said:

This isn’t kicking a can.  The pattern supports a significant east coast storm sometime between the 23-26th.

Yeah, for the Mid-Atlantic maybe. 

I get being optimistic, most people are just generally optimistic in everyday life that doesn't involve the weather at all but the writing is on the wall with this. Everything is going to trend away from a MECS in New England. It already has. The only model that had it was the Euro and maybe its ensembles and they have now trended with all the others. 

No storm here. This winter sucks south of MHT and north of PHL. Just the way it is. 

[mahk_webstah]

22 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

did a forky make a doodoo in his diaper?

if so I'm sure he'll just reach down and starting flinging it at us.

[mahk_webstah]

WPC feeds the SNEweenies (SNEnnies?) at 3:17pm today:

This area of
low pressure is to be positioned near the right entrance region of a potent jet streak over the
northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England, which will allow for strengthening. As a result,
blossoming precipitation is expected to the north of the low pressure system and over an area
experiencing subfreezing temperatures. A swath of heavy snow is most likely to occur from
north-central North Carolina to southeast Virginia and the southern Delmarva Peninsula. Regardless
of recent deterministic guidance trending more progressive with the system and limiting QPF over
the northern Mid-Atlantic, there remains numerous ensemble members and synoptic support hinting at
a farther north solution. Given the ridging downstream over the western Atlantic, it won't take
much to steer a system closer to the coast and extend heavy snow as far north as an area from
southern Pennsylvania to southern New England. Given the large uncertainty, the heavy snow area on
the hazards chart today depicts where most guidance overlaps the highest chances for receiving
greater than 4" of snow. However, it is important to note that changes to this forecast over the
next few days are still likely.

[IowaStorm05]

1 hour ago, Sugarloaf1989 said:

My first car, a 1989 Camaro. Very unreliable.  Went through 2 transmissions and many component failures. 

American cars were profoundly more dangerous and unreliable in the 80s. However that is a gorgeous car. Modern vehicles have been progressively perfected and safety has increased, but I do think that the pace of reliability acceleration has slowed, especially with cheaper models. The biggest gains in reliability improvement were made between, probably 1985-2000 in Japan and 1993-2004 In America, with a second acceleration in improvements between 2008 and 2015 after complacency almost pulled Detroit under during the Great Recession but bailouts and reinvestment brought American Auto back from death stronger than ever. But I don’t have statistics to back it up, just observation and memory. Reliability improved before safety did however. Ever see a 2015-2020 Chevy? Gorgeous.

I revised my statement slightly when thinking more about it. 

[snowgeek]

I doubt it will ever happen actually.  Too many variables that we may never fully understand enough to create the proper algorithms.

If models got too accurate, weather prediction would be boring and these threads would not be any fun. The more the models suck, the more fun forecasting is! People think they want perfect models……be careful what you wish for.


.

[JC-CT]

Just now, snowgeek said:

If models got too accurate, weather prediction would be boring and these threads would not be any fun. The more the models suck, the more fun forecasting is! People think they want perfect models……be careful what you wish for.
 

they want them to be perfect when they show snow

[snowgeek]

This is why the really good meteorologists  use the models  with a grain of salt. They look at the larger scale situation, at the analogues, at their own pattern recognition, etc. And then they put the model output in context in terms of what is more likely to happen in the end. It’s a bit like scientific detective work. We have some particularly gifted mets  on this forum.  it’s the weenies who have learned how to read model output who seem to be apoplectic about not having a model make an accurate projection. 

Wise words. The models probably make some off us worse at forecasting lol. They’re just one collection of tools in a tool box with many collections of tools. Some want to think that the models are screwdrivers that keep trying to screw us. Perhaps we should be using more wrenches and pliers so we can grab onto the weather weenie gods nuts.


.

[moneypitmike]

I think the remaining 100 pages of this discussion can be found in the panic thread.

[RedSky]

1 hour ago, Sugarloaf1989 said:

My first car, a 1989 Camaro. Very unreliable.  Went through 2 transmissions and many component failures. 

My old 84 Trans AM violently agrees with two transmissions, four carburetors and many component failures. Majority of the repairs I did myself or would have cost the price of the car twice over. Btw my 2015 Chevy is proving American cars still suck. 

 

[8611Blizz]

1 hour ago, Sugarloaf1989 said:

My first car, a 1989 Camaro. Very unreliable.  Went through 2 transmissions and many component failures. 

I had an '82Z i bought in 89. The 305 blew up after about six months. Replaced it with an 1982 corvette L82. 230hp. That was sweet but the transmission wasn't happy

After that car I went to Toyota cars and Ford trucks (since Toyota doesn't make larger trucks).

Toyota and Honda since then.

[JC-CT]

This is what I see when I look at the GFS

 

[RedSky]

5 minutes ago, 8611Blizz said:

I had an '82Z i bought in 89. The 305 blew up after about six months. Replaced it with an 1982 corvette L82. 230hp. That was sweet but the transmission wasn't happy

After that car I went to Toyota cars and Ford trucks (since Toyota doesn't make larger trucks).

Toyota and Honda since then.

Haha you know the pain. The original 305 blew up on the family member 6 months before I bought it. But the 350 that replaced it managed to survive up to 2008 when it drove off into the great beyond.

 

 

[78Blizzard]

41 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

I think the remaining 100 pages of this discussion can be found in the panic thread.

I have a feeling this thread won't reach the 125 pages of our last sh!tstorm discussion.

[moneypitmike]

37 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

This is what I see when I look at the GFS

 

Let's go Brandon.

[NotSureWeather]

23 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

I have a feeling this thread won't reach the 125 pages of our last sh!tstorm discussion.

I mean this basically an off topic thread at this point.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

5 minutes ago, NotSureWeather said:

I mean this basically an off topic thread at this point.

Well, if the gawdamn winter would stay on topic it would be fine!