Arctic cold and new threat emerges for the 26th. Patience Grasshoppers.

[snowgeek]

1 hour ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

I'd much rather have 1 really good model that can be relied upon than several mediocre models. 

Maybe by 2050.  Chaos theory and data gaps are a beyotch lol.  And more data ingested = slower models, etc.  yadda yadda yadda.

[subdude]

59 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

The positivity is this thread is heading downhill rapidly....

looks like this thread won't be 125 pages. 

[JC-CT]

2 minutes ago, snowgeek said:

Maybe by 2050.  Chaos theory and data gaps a re a beyotch lol.  And more data ingested = slower models, etc.  yadda yadda yadda.

Well don't they all pretty much use the same shared data though?

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, subdude said:

looks like this thread won't be 125 pages. 

Well, it says 1/22 through 1/24...not just 1/22.

[dryslot]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Nice hook-and-ladder scenario via N stream capture.

Modeling has showed a few of these this year, As long as it doesn't hook to BGM if it happened ha ha

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Modeling has showed a few of these this year, As long as it doesn't hook to BGM if it happened ha ha

Of course the one that worked out did precisely that-

[WinterWolf]

At least we’ve got action…and the cold. It’ll be interesting to see which period emerges out of all of this? That’s all we can ask for at this point.  
 

All speculation at this point, but maybe Thursday becomes a lil more of a player, and then the 22nd shifts to the 24th? Just thinking out loud some?  
 

We’ll see what The latest Euro shows for these ideas in 45 minutes or so. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

This has been the most challenging season to forecast in the medium range that I can recall.

[Great Snow 1717]

9 minutes ago, subdude said:

looks like this thread won't be 125 pages. 

Give it time to marinate...

[dryslot]

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Of course the one that worked out did precisely that-

Yes it did, And still sucked for the most part.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

20 minutes ago, snowgeek said:

Maybe by 2050.  Chaos theory and data gaps are a beyotch lol.  And more data ingested = slower models, etc.  yadda yadda yadda.

I doubt it will ever happen actually.  Too many variables that we may never fully understand enough to create the proper algorithms.

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Yes it did, And still sucked for the most part.

Well, you would expect it to suck cutting to BGM.

[ORH_wxman]

7 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I doubt it will ever happen actually.  Too many variables that we may never fully understand enough to create the proper algorithms.

Even if you could model the atmospheric dynamics perfectly, you'd still have to have a dense enough coverage of data to make the forecast flawless. As the ole saying goes, the output is only as good as the data being input.

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, you would expect it to suck cutting to BGM.

Good thing that's not common, Been a while since we had a inland runner, Usually we get a cutter to the UP of MI.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Good thing that's not common, Been a while since we had a inland runner, Usually we get a cutter to the UP of MI.

Still would have been a nice SWFE if the damn high was better positioned.

[dryslot]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Still would have been a nice SWFE if the damn high was better positioned.

Main issue as far as i was concerned, If it would have stayed anchored over QUE it would have been better for all.

[mahk_webstah]

11 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I doubt it will ever happen actually.  Too many variables that we may never fully understand enough to create the proper algorithms.

This is why the really good meteorologists  use the models  with a grain of salt. They look at the larger scale situation, at the analogues, at their own pattern recognition, etc. And then they put the model output in context in terms of what is more likely to happen in the end. It’s a bit like scientific detective work. We have some particularly gifted mets  on this forum.  it’s the weenies who have learned how to read model output who seem to be apoplectic about not having a model make an accurate projection. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Main issue as far as i was concerned, If it would have stayed anchored over QUE it would have been better for all.

I can afford one of the two to not work out...the high escaping, or the low cutting, but not both. Back near ORH and up to you can still get a decent thump with both. I am too close to the ocean for that.

[MJO812]

Euro is going to be bad 

[ORH_wxman]

Euro is starting to cave....1/22 will come in flatter this run.

I'm hoping we can start seeing better solutions for 1/24 because 1/22 just doesn't have much room to maneuver.

[MJO812]

Throw the model in the trash

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Euro is starting to cave....1/22 will come in flatter this run.

I'm hoping we can start seeing better solutions for 1/24 but 1/22 just doesn't have much room to maneuver.

Where is Jeff's kick the can GIF....going on a month now....

[SouthCoastMA]

The euro is just another model now. That has increased model chaos and uncertainty in the mid-range for nearly every storm. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Euro is going to be bad 

is your  deflated now?

[40/70 Benchmark]

See what it does with 1/24...if that sucks, I am taking a break.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, SouthCoastMA said:

The euro is just another model now. That has increased model chaos and uncertainty in the mid-range for nearly every storm. 

Euro is like 1A to the GFS 1B these days....there isn't a canyon-esque gap between them like there used to be.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Throw the model in the trash

More traffic stops and arrests incoming?

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

See that it does with 1/24...if that sucks, I am taking a break.

Now we need that mess to lift out faster giving room behind it.

[bristolri_wx]

1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said:

The euro is just another model now. That has increased model chaos and uncertainty in the mid-range for nearly every storm. 

All the models are having difficulty this winter.  Clearly there's something going on with data ingested and such in accurately modeling east-coast snow storms this season.  The problems may be related the increased resolution across the board on all the global models.

[SouthCoastMA]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

More traffic stops and arrests incoming?

mere warnings are now $200 tickets after that run.