Baroclinic Zone Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 On 1/18/2022 at 4:35 PM, MJO812 said: It blew chunks with the last storm Expand A part of this forum that annoys me. Disregard a model because of past results rather than look at it and see if it fits the pattern and other model consensus. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxFreak11 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Suppression sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 So.. With the last storm... It seemed to me that the GFS handled it better much sooner than the Euro. I guess we can argue that the Euro has also beat out the GFS as well with other storms. I almost think they are both onto something and the 22nd and the 24th might be converging into 1 storm where they both meet eachother in the middle. We'll see I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 On 1/18/2022 at 4:39 PM, WxFreak11 said: Suppression sucks Expand it has to ease at some point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 On 1/18/2022 at 4:41 PM, JC-CT said: it has to ease at some point Expand Probably april. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 On 1/18/2022 at 4:41 PM, JC-CT said: it has to ease at some point Expand 22-23.??? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 12z GEFS looking better for the 24th timeframe. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 We know the deal when we have these systems all jammed up on each other. One wins out and IMO it’s often the second or third of the bunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 On 1/18/2022 at 4:44 PM, Baroclinic Zone said: 12z GEFS looking better for the 24th timeframe. Expand Yea. It was showing an invt for the 24th initially too which Will always comments it could be a hint into a more consolidated look as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxFreak11 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 On 1/18/2022 at 4:41 PM, JC-CT said: it has to ease at some point Expand With such a great pattern it’s so f’n frustrating. Inland runners or suppression storms. Hopefully we get one good storm before the pattern flips. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 GGEM likes the 24th better too even though it's a narrow miss...it's closer than the 1/22 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 On 1/18/2022 at 4:54 PM, WxFreak11 said: With such a great pattern it’s so f’n frustrating. Inland runners or suppression storms. Hopefully we get one good storm before the pattern flips. Expand that's my point though, the pattern flipping is what often triggers a big one. just hope it's not a cutter lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southshorewx Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 On 1/18/2022 at 4:00 PM, DotRat_Wx said: This subforum just hasn't been the same lately Expand Sub hasn't been the same since we lost messenger. Angry observation drives up and down route 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 some of you are totally missing the forest for the trees...which one does the JMA like 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Technically outside of this thread but the Canadians are HAARPing up a goddamn nuke for the 27th 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 On 1/18/2022 at 4:32 PM, ORH_wxman said: It's a defense mechanism for many on here to whine. The GFS actually improved a little for 1/22 even though it still misses. Bit I do think the 1/24 threat has more room to work with even though there are still some minor spacing issues with the 1/22 wave ahead of it. Expand I think its a mix....whining about events that have yet to happen is a defense mechanism, but whining about the past is the venting of frustration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 On 1/18/2022 at 4:41 PM, JC-CT said: it has to ease at some point Expand It just did, and it rained. I would rather the 24th TBH...take Monday off. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 On 1/18/2022 at 5:08 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: It just did, and it rained. I would rather the 24th TBH...take Monday off. Expand right... On 1/18/2022 at 4:55 PM, JC-CT said: that's my point though, the pattern flipping is what often triggers a big one. just hope it's not a cutter lol Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 On 1/18/2022 at 5:09 PM, JC-CT said: right... Expand Yea, nice edit lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 On 1/18/2022 at 5:10 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, nice edit lol Expand I didn't edit anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 On 1/18/2022 at 5:04 PM, JC-CT said: Technically outside of this thread but the Canadians are HAARPing up a goddamn nuke for the 27th Expand That monster is back around the 29th on the GFS, Wrong thread for this i just noticed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 On 1/18/2022 at 4:30 PM, JC-CT said: One thing people should keep in mind, especially when thinking about after the 22nd, is that model continuity is pretty poor right now regarding these shortwaves over the CONUS. Even at 60hrs out, there are some pretty big changes happening from run to run...more than we saw with the last system. Expand Of course, the fluky interaction the produced a cutter was locked and loaded from several days out lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 On 1/18/2022 at 5:10 PM, JC-CT said: I didn't edit anything Expand Well, the last part of the post wasn't there when I quoted it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 This is like a cross between looking at the Gulf coast sector winter threat page and the image of buddy who has had 8 drinks , dates big ladies and is telling you how Great this one looks please euro taketh away the hopium it isn’t a “defense mechanism “ I really dont think this storm can be twisted as likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 On 1/18/2022 at 5:12 PM, dryslot said: That monster is back around the 29th on the GFS. Expand yep, commented in the Jan thread, but that time frame looks ripe at the modeling moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 On 1/18/2022 at 5:04 PM, JC-CT said: Technically outside of this thread but the Canadians are HAARPing up a goddamn nuke for the 27th Expand Why would anyone harp up a fantasy storm that’s 9 days out? Mentioning its there is one thing, but harping on it is pure nonsense. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 On 1/18/2022 at 5:13 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Well, the last part of the post wasn't there when I quoted it. Expand It still isn't...that's not the post you quoted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 On 1/18/2022 at 5:14 PM, JC-CT said: It still isn't...that's not the post you quoted Expand Sorry, my mistake. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 On 1/18/2022 at 5:15 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Sorry, my mistake. Expand No worries. Anyway, my point is that we've definitely got some bullets in the chamber, and maybe an rpg or two. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 On 1/18/2022 at 5:12 PM, dryslot said: That monster is back around the 29th on the GFS, Wrong thread for this i just noticed. Expand Nice hook-and-ladder scenario via N stream capture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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