Arctic cold and new threat emerges for the 26th. Patience Grasshoppers.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, MJO812 said:

It blew chunks with the last storm

A part of this forum that annoys me.  Disregard a model because of past results rather than look at it and see if it fits the pattern and other model consensus.

[WxFreak11]

Suppression sucks

[Snowcrazed71]

So.. With the last storm... It seemed to me that the GFS handled it better much sooner than the Euro.  I guess we can argue that the Euro has also beat out the GFS as well with other storms. I almost think they are both onto something and the 22nd and the 24th might be converging into 1 storm where they both meet eachother in the middle. We'll see I guess.

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, WxFreak11 said:

Suppression sucks

it has to ease at some point

[dryslot]

Just now, JC-CT said:

it has to ease at some point

Probably april.

[Great Snow 1717]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

it has to ease at some point

22-23.???

[Baroclinic Zone]

12z GEFS looking better for the 24th timeframe.

[PhineasC]

We know the deal when we have these systems all jammed up on each other. One wins out and IMO it’s often the second or third of the bunch. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

12z GEFS looking better for the 24th timeframe.

Yea. It was showing an invt for the 24th initially too which Will always comments it could be a hint into a more consolidated look as we get closer.  

[WxFreak11]

11 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

it has to ease at some point

With such a great pattern it’s so f’n frustrating. Inland runners or suppression storms. Hopefully we get one good storm before the pattern flips.

[ORH_wxman]

GGEM likes the 24th better too even though it's a narrow miss...it's closer than the 1/22 storm.

[JC-CT]

Just now, WxFreak11 said:

With such a great pattern it’s so f’n frustrating. Inland runners or suppression storms. Hopefully we get one good storm before the pattern flips.

that's my point though, the pattern flipping is what often triggers a big one. just hope it's not a cutter lol

[Southshorewx]

54 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said:

This subforum just hasn't been the same lately

Sub hasn't been the same since we lost messenger.  Angry observation drives up and down route 3

[JC-CT]

some of you are totally missing the forest for the trees...which one does the JMA like

[JC-CT]

Technically outside of this thread but the Canadians are HAARPing up a goddamn nuke for the 27th

[40/70 Benchmark]

35 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It's a defense mechanism for many on here to whine. The GFS actually improved a little for 1/22 even though it still misses. Bit I do think the 1/24 threat has more room to work with even though there are still some minor spacing issues with the 1/22 wave ahead of it.

I think its a mix....whining about events that have yet to happen is a defense mechanism, but whining about the past is the venting of frustration.

[40/70 Benchmark]

26 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

it has to ease at some point

It just did, and it rained.

I would rather the 24th TBH...take Monday off.

[JC-CT]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It just did, and it rained.

I would rather the 24th TBH...take Monday off.

right...

13 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

that's my point though, the pattern flipping is what often triggers a big one. just hope it's not a cutter lol

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, JC-CT said:

right...

 

Yea, nice edit lol

[JC-CT]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, nice edit lol

I didn't edit anything

[dryslot]

7 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Technically outside of this thread but the Canadians are HAARPing up a goddamn nuke for the 27th

That monster is back around the 29th on the GFS, Wrong thread for this i just noticed.

[40/70 Benchmark]

40 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

One thing people should keep in mind, especially when thinking about after the 22nd, is that model continuity is pretty poor right now regarding these shortwaves over the CONUS. Even at 60hrs out, there are some pretty big changes happening from run to run...more than we saw with the last system.

Of course, the fluky interaction the produced a cutter was locked and loaded from several days out lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

I didn't edit anything

Well, the last part of the post wasn't there when I quoted it.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

This is like a cross between looking at the Gulf coast sector winter threat page and the image of buddy who has had 8 drinks , dates big ladies and is telling you how Great this one looks 

please euro taketh away the hopium 

it isn’t a “defense mechanism “ I really dont  think this storm can be twisted as likely 

[JC-CT]

Just now, dryslot said:

That monster is back around the 29th on the GFS.

yep, commented in the Jan thread, but that time frame looks ripe at the modeling moment

[WinterWolf]

8 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Technically outside of this thread but the Canadians are HAARPing up a goddamn nuke for the 27th

Why would anyone harp up a fantasy storm that’s 9 days out? Mentioning its there is one thing, but harping on it is pure nonsense.  

[JC-CT]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, the last part of the post wasn't there when I quoted it.

It still isn't...that's not the post you quoted

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, JC-CT said:

It still isn't...that's not the post you quoted

Sorry, my mistake.

[JC-CT]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Sorry, my mistake.

No worries.

Anyway, my point is that we've definitely got some bullets in the chamber, and maybe an rpg or two.

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, dryslot said:

That monster is back around the 29th on the GFS, Wrong thread for this i just noticed.

Nice hook-and-ladder scenario via N stream capture.