Arctic cold and new threat emerges for the 26th. Patience Grasshoppers.

[WxWatcher007]

  On 1/18/2022 at 3:13 PM, JC-CT said:

Counterpoint, the weather doesn't care

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Winter will take my D+ and like it. 
 

  On 1/18/2022 at 3:18 PM, Cyclone-68 said:

I agree if something doesn’t happen soon, toaster futures will go through the roof 

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Local stores limiting toaster sales to one per household. National Guard being stationed at all bridges. Emergency Rooms on preemptive code blues in case the Euro chokes on the weekend threat. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Thursday doesn’t really affect Saturday. Remember when that was the fear last week with the ocean storm affecting yesterday. How’d that work out?

[JC-CT]

  On 1/18/2022 at 3:26 PM, WxWatcher007 said:

Local stores limiting toaster sales to one per household. National Guard being stationed at all bridges. Emergency Rooms on preemptive code blues in case the Euro chokes on the weekend threat. 

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The 12z ICON could end lives.

[WxWatcher007]

  On 1/18/2022 at 3:27 PM, JC-CT said:

The 12z ICON could end lives.

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If anyone jumps into a local waterway over the ICAN model, at least they will posthumously receive a well-deserved Darwin Award.

[JC-CT]

  On 1/18/2022 at 3:32 PM, WxWatcher007 said:

If anyone jumps into a local waterway over the ICAN model, at least they will posthumously receive a well-deserved Darwin Award.

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I meant if it verified

[WxFreak11]

And to think I left the South and moved back to New England because I missed the snow..sigh. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/18/2022 at 3:27 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Thursday doesn’t really affect Saturday. Remember when that was the fear last week with the ocean storm affecting yesterday. How’d that work out?

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That's because the N stream dove into the backside of the trough, tilting it negative, otherwise it would have. This is why Will is saying we need more SW energy to phase in as insurance.

[40/70 Benchmark]

If we are just relying in the s stream SW to get it done alone, then Thursday can most certainly present a wave space issue.

[snowgeek]

Kicker fears.  I feel like that shortwave diving in behind could easily boot this bad boy east in a hurry.  Either need a full phase or enough wave spacing.  Kicker fear is real.  

[Spanks45]

  On 1/18/2022 at 3:02 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It’s going to be hectic moving forward with so many sw’s flying around too. Active but model mayhem.

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Way better than cold and dry...keeps us up late, no sleep till February?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 1/18/2022 at 3:53 PM, Spanks45 said:

Way better than cold and dry...keeps us up late, no sleep till February?

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I’d rather read endless amount of posts where Wolfie virtually eats his prey, then be in a cold and dry pattern. 

[dryslot]

Chasing ghosts.

[MJO812]

If the euro busts then that model should be thrown in the garbage. 

[Torch Tiger]

  On 1/18/2022 at 1:32 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

So I guess this forum has devolved into reporting what we want to happen, not what the models actually show, got it.

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nowhere does "what could go wrong with this forecast" fit in anymore, since no one wants to read it, and it possibly threatens peoples precious snow.    it's a rip/read model and weeniefest for the biggest solutions

[TalcottWx]

This subforum just hasn't been the same lately

[dryslot]

12z GFS still says no on the 22nd.

[Great Snow 1717]

  On 1/18/2022 at 3:27 PM, JC-CT said:

The 12z ICON could end lives.

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[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/18/2022 at 4:00 PM, DotRat_Wx said:

This subforum just hasn't been the same lately

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Because the weather has sucked. Its not complicated. The only phasing action we get is when it rains.

[Baroclinic Zone]

  On 1/18/2022 at 4:01 PM, dryslot said:

12z GFS still says no on the 22nd.

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What a hot mess at 5h.  Good luck.

[dryslot]

  On 1/18/2022 at 4:03 PM, Baroclinic Zone said:

What a hot mess at 5h.  Good luck.

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If anything happens, Its going to pop up out of nowhere with all this chaos on a short lead if at all.

[MJO812]

Ukie has nothing 

[dryslot]

If i was going to pick a time, Maybe the 24th has a shot, But..........

 

[Baroclinic Zone]

  On 1/18/2022 at 4:06 PM, dryslot said:

If i was going to pick a time, Maybe the 24th has a shot.

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Yup.  Get that trough out of the way on Saturday and allow the follow-up up one in the GOM to amplify. 

[JC-CT]

  On 1/18/2022 at 4:07 PM, Baroclinic Zone said:

Yup.  Get that trough out of the way on Saturday and allow the follow-up up one in the GOM to amplify. 

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that weird invt look was always sus

[dryslot]

  On 1/18/2022 at 4:07 PM, Baroclinic Zone said:

Yup.  Get that trough out of the way on Saturday and allow the follow-up up one in the GOM to amplify. 

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GFS has liked that time frame more the the 22nd.

[Hazey]

Never bought the euro. It’s done this before with a over amped s/w. My guess is it will slink back to the other guidance. Very subtly as if no one will notice. Close shave here. Probably nail Nick. The gfs has been stubbornly insistent on the follow up wave being the player.


#NovaScotiaStrong

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Gfs looks like hot dung for Saturday. Given other models… it’s more likely that the euro folds like a cheap suit for Saturday than the other way around 

[Baroclinic Zone]

  On 1/18/2022 at 4:09 PM, dryslot said:

GFS has liked that time frame more the the 22nd.

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I personally fell the Euro is out to lunch on the 22nd.  

[JC-CT]

  On 1/18/2022 at 4:09 PM, Hazey said:

Never bought the euro. It’s done this before with a over amped s/w. My guess is it will slink back to the other guidance. Very subtly as if no one will notice. Close shave here. Probably nail Nick. The gfs has been stubbornly insistent on the follow up wave being the player.


#NovaScotiaStrong

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It really already started to at 6z

[dryslot]

  On 1/18/2022 at 4:09 PM, Hazey said:

Never bought the euro. It’s done this before with a over amped s/w. My guess is it will slink back to the other guidance. Very subtly as if no one will notice. Close shave here. Probably nail Nick. The gfs has been stubbornly insistent on the follow up wave being the player.


#NovaScotiaStrong

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Oh, Some have noticed, And others just want to believe its right, Desperation leads to bad judgement............lol