Arctic cold and new threat emerges for the 26th. Patience Grasshoppers.

[dendrite]

32 minutes ago, The Graupler said:

Clam down scraptus. It’s going to be aOk 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Maybe step away from the blogs ?

No. Its like working out....I dread doing it, but not as badly as I dread NOT doing it...if that makes sense....this season has just had zero payoff.

[Lava Rock]

I am optimistic not about any particular system, but about the pattern.  There is a generally good sentiment, expressed here by GYX in their last 2 AFDs:

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...Overview: Troughing will persist over New England through at leastearly next week which will favor below average temperatures and anactive weather pattern favoring snow.

Nice to see for a change

Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No. Its like working out....I dread doing it, but not as badly as I dread NOT doing it...if that makes sense....

Yeah I get it . Same with getting up to run at 4:30 AM when it’s 0 . You don’t look forward to It , but to stay in shape and health.. you balls up and do it. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Yeah I get it . Same with getting up to run at 4:30 AM when it’s 0

I knew because of that you would know exactly what I meant haha. I am the same way about lifting and jogging.

Anyway, one of these should work out...eventually.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I knew because of that you would know exactly what I meant haha. I am the same way about lifting and jogging.

Anyway, one of these should work out...eventually.

The funny thing is.. I always check the forum when I wake up and 9 X out of 10 I can tell how the tenor of the overnight runs went by that last poster icon . If I see MPM picture.. I know it’s either OTS or AEMATT. If I see Will.. it’s typically going to snow .. it I see you and the time stamp is 2:30.. and that was the last post.. it’s either good or your’re feeling a bone job coming. If it’s Scooter .. it’s typically 3-5 words and sets the demeanor of the board for the entire morning. 

[Ginx snewx]

56 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Are you constantly calculating probabilities like a money ball guy?

Will was banned from casinos for counting cards. Lol He is the ultimate probability man

[weathafella]

21 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

Posted December 14, 2020 -

"Ike came in robust for 18z...edit..similar to 12z"

I remembered this from last year because I never heard the Ikon referred to as Ike before.

Apology wasn't needed, as I agree it is a lousy model.  

Lol…13 months but good work!

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The funny thing is.. I always check the forum when I wake up and 9 X out of 10 I can tell how the tenor of the overnight runs went by that last poster icon . If I see MPM picture.. I know it’s either OTS or AEMATT. If I see Will.. it’s typically going to snow .. it I see you and the time stamp is 2:30.. and that was the last post.. it’s either good or your’re feeling a bone job coming. If it’s Scooter .. it’s typically 3-5 words and sets the demeanor of the board for the entire morning. 

?? Don’t have time for diatribes unless it’s interesting.

[MJO812]

Euro would be really nice based off H5. Let's  see what the eps shows soon.

[weathafella]

It’s a matter of which model is right at H5.   Euro looks the same as 12z at H5 96 vs 90 hours and different vs gfs.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Here are my thoughts on next week...lots of hedging because its getting like the boy who cried wolfie.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2022/01/more-mid-winter-mayhem-possible-in.html

[JoeSnowBOS]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro would be really nice based off H5. Let's  see what the eps shows soon.

Maps?

[ORH_wxman]

9 minutes ago, weathafella said:

It’s a matter of which model is right at H5.   Euro looks the same as 12z at H5 96 vs 90 hours and different vs gfs.

I actually thought 18z looked a little better too. Guess we’ll see if other guidance starts to play ball at 00z or if the euro starts to cave, but 18z was a solid double down by the Euro. 

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Here are my thoughts on next week...lots of hedging because it getting like the boy who cried wolfie.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2022/01/more-mid-winter-mayhem-possible-in.html

And Goobledegook? 

[Angus]

I'm flying Saturday at the crack of dawn to Boise to begin a four state, 10 day ski vacation. I've got enough obstacles between not catching COVID between now and then and flight crew availability...can we role this threat to Sunday please.

[weathafella]

4 minutes ago, Angus said:

I'm flying Saturday at the crack of dawn to Boise to begin a four state, 10 day ski vacation. I've got enough obstacles between not catching COVID between now and then and flight crew availability...can we role this threat to Sunday please.

Well as modeled crack of dawn from ME should be fine...even ok maybe from. BOS.

[dryslot]

Just looking at the 18z EPS on SV without seeing individuals, I would say there's going to be some members close by for the 22nd.

[weathafella]

Euro is goin to win this.  Watch models cave tomorrow night.

[WxWatcher007]

Updating the comparison…

00z

 

12z

18z

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Euro is goin to win this.  Watch models cave tomorrow night.

Agree 

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Updating the comparison…

00z

 

12z

18z

Clearly showing a trend of more members closer in. 

[WeatherX]

Big bump up on the mean vs the 12z run



.

[dendrite]

The euro is the only one fully phasing it with that s/w coming out of the SW US. Ukie is close, but disjointed…GFS and GDPS are no go’s. ICON is a partial phase. I’d like to see a run from another model jump on board soon.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

[WinterWolf]

Lot of hits in there. 

[MJO812]

Wow decent shift west

What a big solution on the eps

[NorEastermass128]

Hate to pull a Tblizz, but it looks like a thread the needle event for E SNE. Too far west and we taint. Too far east and we whiff. The AEMATT inside 95 crowd needs it just right. 

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Wow decent shift west

What a big solution on the eps

This is real deal Holyfield . Scoots is all in 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, NorEastermass128 said:

Hate to pull a Tblizz, but it looks like a thread the needle event for E SNE. Too far west and we taint. Too far east and we whiff. The AEMATT inside 95 crowd needs it just right. 

It’s like that with most snowstorms lol.