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Arctic cold and new threat emerges for the 26th. Patience Grasshoppers.

Ginx snewx

By Ginx snewx,
in New England

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The setup again looks tenuous at first with a shit positive tilted trough, but then curls left and up lol with the nrn stream s/w behind it. Why not? :lol: 

Lol... like, everything that's happened so far has been weird.   Why shouldn't weirdness work for the better, just the same -

 

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Full disclosure...I am probably going to come completely unhinged if this next one doesn't work out for my area. I've been trying to remain rational, and keep turning the page, but that one may do it.

OceanStWx
OceanStWx
ORH_wxman
ORH_wxman

At least when Tip started threads, the events actually happen. 

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WeatherX

WeatherX

Posted
Posted
47 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It is delicious looking ...

There's a classic entrance region to the upper air jet over central New England, and the exit region of the 500 mb ( echoed by the 250 above), kissing its ass off the Mid Atlantic. 

Those two fluid mechanical aspects correlate well to strong surface low pressure genesis in that region, due to causing UVM over a broad area.  Enter, that is a climatologic region there along/astride the MA, because that's where the polar continental air meets the ocean and all that.. 

Add in that at the surface, at that time, that zone is being enhanced, with a very cold air mass lingering over New England and the eastern OV ... tucking down into the regions of PHL or so... that means there is a strong llv frontal boundary extending NEward of the coast. That feature would set up a steeply elevating frontal interface - ah... it just makes the rising air do so more efficiently...which lowers the pressure beneath...etc.

Lot of synoptic signals there within that frame going for it.. 

The problem is what is happening outside, and if that frame can even evolve to a state where those goodies can take place at all.   This is actually day 5.5 really ... Not hugely absurd to be handled but still just outside the Euro's wheelhouse.

I wen all the way back to hour 24 ... it appears this system's sensitivity isn't coming from the normal uncertainty Pacific.  The contributing mechanics are all over western/NW Canada already, and also ejecting from the SW ... over time, there is modest phasing over the western MV, around 96 hours ... eventually it curls around and does it's thing along the EC. The bottom of that trough is attempting to pinch off from a positive aspect..  Basically, it all comes down to that immense engineering feat by the Euro that takes the next 4 days while over the continent.   Doesn't lend to confidence.

 

I'll be watching that 250mb jet. It rarely fails to deliver the goods when it holds up on progs and given the large scale mechanics, is less likely to provide a false signal.

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
Posted
56 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

We probably should wait 3 or so cycles and see if the trend continues/consolidates on the ensembles, then become more invested

Absolutely.  Nobody feels that idea is a bad one. 

 

24 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

I agree....hopefully my agreement isn't being too negative for some individuals....

You missed the whole point pal. When folks just poo poo something just for the sake of poo pooing it, that’s not adding anything to the forum.  
 

It’s out there..we get it. Nobody is saying the area is getting whacked. Nobody did say that. But some of you acted like they did.  Let’s see what things show tomorrow afternoon…? If it’s gone, cool, then we maybe loose another one? Nobody knows anything at this point.  Folks were just commenting on the euro run..nothing more. 

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JC-CT

JC-CT

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Henry's Weather said:

We probably should wait 3 or so cycles and see if the trend continues/consolidates on the ensembles, then become more invested

are you saying there are actually posters who aren't already invested since the first few ensemble runs showing a handful of hits around this time frame?

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, George001 said:

It’s only 5 days out from the storm. This is different, also it’s the best model there is. If anything these maps are underselling the potential of this storm, if it verifies like the Euro says the snow ratios will be much higher than 10 to 1. With the storm last week the models had my area getting 4-6 inches or so, but I got a foot due to the snow ratios being much higher than 10:1. The QPF the euro is projecting is expected to be around double what it was for that storm, and the low is expected to be stronger. If the Euro is correct, due to the frigid temps in the upper levels and the optimal snow growth soundings this would really end up being like 16-20 inches of snow for eastern mass. 

2/3 of your big 3 whiff.

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bristolri_wx

bristolri_wx

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, PhineasC said:

The are way more horrible models than the Euro. Many of them are posted here multiple times a day too. The Euro is one of the best. People can debate if there is a better model than it based on various criteria. It doesn’t matter. The Euro is a good model either way. The GFS has gotten better though and started to win some of the battles. It wasn’t that long ago where the Euro saying no pretty much meant no. 

From the high level view, the major/trusted models were pretty good with todays (1/17) storm.  We all questioned the unusual mechanics at first vs normal climo but other than shifting it east a little out of NY and into NNE, the track was pretty accurate, as was strength predictions.

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Chrisrotary12

Chrisrotary12

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

This doesn't look terrible for 1/22... there's potential there...

 

 

gfs_z500_vort_us_19.png

The latitude of the vort as it is exiting the east coast is fine. Wouldn't be a biggie, but could work. However, the orientation is all wrong. It's positively tilted which is why the surface reflection is just north of Bermuda.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Yeah, I think at some point in The near future this thread is going to have to be broken apart… there’s like 3 different potential “events” in this time period 

I don’t think both 1/22 and 1/24 work. It’s going to be one or the other like Tip said. There’s additional threats after that timeframe around 1/25-1/27 timeframe but they are different from the 1/22-1/24 threats. 

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