Weather Will Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 WB 6Z HRRR 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 34 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 6Z HRRR Liking the HRRR trends for sure. 18/2.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 The upcoming HRRR runs should help balance out those horrendous nam runs from about 20 hours ago. Back in '16, some models were printing out about 47 inches of snow; the reality was about in the middle: 27 inches for Dale City. In this case, take the worst runs of the nam and the best runs from other models that we were all hugging like a once in a lifetime gf, and average them all out. the outcome will end up about in the middle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 I’ll leave the snowfall map to others, but the 06z NAM nest is similar to prior. Lose the column at 5pm after 0.15” precip in DC, lose the surface at 7pm after an additional 0.15” frozen. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 5 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: I’ll leave the snowfall map to others, but the 06z NAM nest is similar to prior. Lose the column at 5pm after 0.15” precip in DC, lose the surface at 7pm after an additional 0.15” frozen. Comparing to the 06z HRRR, the frozen precip totals are very similar, but the HRRR hangs on to snow for an hour longer, so the snow totals are more like 2” with a bit of IP/ZR on top. By the way, for the Winchester area folks, ignore the NAM nest precip totals. The NAM is too aggressive with topographic lifting. There is still a 800mb warm nose that is problematic, but you should get more precipitation than the nest shows. Hopefully the HRRR pans out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeff B Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 9/230.34 and steady4 miles WSW of Hunt Valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Hrrr snows in Loudoun from 1pm to 715pm lol. Nam till 525pm smh 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 16/1 latest HRRR is pretty tasty...DCA doesn't mix until 6-ish or maybe even later...sounds like its been trending that way. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 6 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: 16/1 latest HRRR is pretty tasty...DCA doesn't mix until 6-ish or maybe even later...sounds like its been trending that way. Looks like DCA gets to 0.35" QPF by 00z on latest HRRR... and sounding shows us flirting with some sleet... so I'm guessing that's all snow before... 2 to 4 before being erased by cold rain would be acceptable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 16/1 latest HRRR is pretty tasty...DCA doesn't mix until 6-ish or maybe even later...sounds like its been trending that way.Hopefully nam is too high res for its own good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 This ice event is looking less impressive. Hrrr is mostly snow.. bit of ice and some rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 The hrrr seems to have a better handle on current temp than the nam 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rickymdwx Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 12/3 edgewood md Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 DCA was at 18 at 4am 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Hrrrr still friendly 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miss Pixee Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Bottoming out at 15/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nukeing Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 7.5/2.4 in Mt airy. About 3 degrees lower than forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 13/4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 9/-1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 14 degrees in Takoma park, coldest morning in a long time. HRRR looks great, 2-4 inches of daytime snow. Let’s do this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 17/1 in my neck of Charlottesville. NE wind at 8. Will be very interesting who wins the battle of the short-term models. HRRR gives us 7+. NAM gives us basically nothing. I'll be happy with a split decision. Will also report how it feels later today, headed outside shortly. Might be the coldest its been here, wind chill wise, in several years. Usually when it's in the teens there's no wind at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Down to 8 degrees in Reisterstown. Damn. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 10 / -3 Columbia 6:45am Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
diatae Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 14/7 here in the plains. Happy snow day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeff B Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 8/1 Lowest of the night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Based off what's happening to our SW, maybe we get a better front end thump? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 DCA down to 17 at least 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 NAM radar prediction for 12z off by about 100 miles. I expect it to be able to nail the rest of its forecast though 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Eric Webb says that actual snow is over-performing down south- verifying closer to HRRR. Good news for us, maybe… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LittleVillageWx Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 11/4 on the south side of Frederick. The arriving clouds are making for a beautiful sunrise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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