WinterWxLuvr Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 The NAM show 0.00” of precip in places in WV by 9z tomorrow night that are forecast to have 6+” of snow by then 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Took me a minute to get this one yeah we have 5 min ob of now either 21 or 22, and the wind is basically perfect for temps to drop in the urban core (fresh north wind). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 14 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Moving towards the euro My point exactly!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 What is the consensus on the freezing rain situation? It would seem to be raining hard enough that it would not be as bad as a lighter and longer-duration rain. But 45+ MPH winds make it a difficult and worrisome forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 DCA probably going to break through 22F tonight… wonder if this streak is still alive? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWC Split Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 18/4 mostly clear skies in Haymarket. Gut feeling that we are going to hit the Cap Weather Gang boom forecast of up to 6 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 WB NCEP WRF-ARW - NCEP WRF-ARW Core 12Z v 0Z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 7 minutes ago, SnowDreamer said: DCA probably going to break through 22F tonight… wonder if this streak is still alive? lol see above. it's going on 1000+ days now. It probably ended this hour. We still have a streak ongoing of days reaching at least 30F that stretches back to the beginning of Feb 2019. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmk Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, PWC Split said: 18/4 mostly clear skies in Haymarket. Gut feeling that we are going to hit the Cap Weather Gang boom forecast of up to 6 inches. Close to Haymarket here and been feeling the same. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 4 minutes ago, jmk said: Close to Haymarket here and been feeling the same. You’d be surprised how SE winds and warmer than they should be ocean temps can decimate cold air faster than mustard gets on a tie at a county fair…whatever that means. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 lol - DCA doin DCA things still 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWC Split Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 7 minutes ago, BristowWx said: You’d be surprised how SE winds and warmer than they should be ocean temps can decimate cold air faster than mustard gets on a tie at a county fair…whatever that means. I have lived here long enough to understand our climo. History says we get 2-3 inches, a little bit longer then expected period of frozen precip, and then rain. However, for some reason I have my weenie goggles on. Maybe it’s the bourbon talking, or maybe it’s the euphoria of the Bills pounding the Pats. Either way I am glass half full on this one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 9 minutes ago, BristowWx said: You’d be surprised how SE winds and warmer than they should be ocean temps can decimate cold air faster than mustard gets on a tie at a county fair…whatever that means. Yep same people who said no way would snow stick after days in the 60’s. I think we’re all very lucky the entire event isn’t freezing rain…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 18.9. Coldest since 2/2/19 at home. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Just now, PWC Split said: I have lived here long enough to understand our climo. History says we get 2-3 inches, a little bit longer then expected period of frozen precip, and then rain. However, for some reason I have my weenie goggles on. Maybe it’s the bourbon talking, or maybe it’s the euphoria of the Bills pounding the Pats. Either way I am glass half full on this one. I think you may be underestimating that mild ocean temp and strong easterly fetch we’re going to experience rather quickly. I would also say when have we boomed with this particular storm track ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lake Frederick Mike Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 16/8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 1 minute ago, jewell2188 said: I think you may be underestimating that mild ocean temp and strong easterly fetch we’re going to experience rather quickly. I would also say when have we boomed with this particular storm track ?? There hasnt been this type of track before so... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 There hasnt been this type of track before so...I don’t know about this argument… I mean every weather event is unique but it’s not like you can’t take from others where the low was running way less far to the west and extrapolate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 14.2 in Reisterstown. New record low for my site (5 years of data). 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: I don’t know about this argument… I mean every weather event is unique but it’s not like you can’t take from others where the low was running way less far to the west and extrapolate. I've been following the SNE thread on the storm and even ORH was mentioning how unique this storm path is 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 RGEM is very similar to the NAM. I'll leave it at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shoshanaz Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 15/2 in Pikesville/Greenspring 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 I've been following the SNE thread on the storm and even ORH was mentioning how unique this storm path isThat’s probably very true, but I don’t think it means you throw meteorology 101 out the window here in hopes of a weenie miracle, I guess is the point I’m trying to make. We obviously have some hope for a strong WAA push that helps keep things cooler. Psu mentioned something like that a few nights ago. I just don’t think that depends on a unique “this has never been seen before” event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWC Split Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 3 minutes ago, jewell2188 said: I think you may be underestimating that mild ocean temp and strong easterly fetch we’re going to experience rather quickly. I would also say when have we boomed with this particular storm track ?? Not underestimating at all. I have zero scientific support for my assertion. Just a weenie who has a gut feeling. 17/3 as an obs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 They moved Charlottesville into the 5-8” from 4-6”. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 RGEM is very similar to the NAM. I'll leave it at that. EURO/HRRR combo isn’t bad. Hug it and ignore everything else.19/2 in Arlington, which is where my obs willbe for this one. Good luck to my Charlottesville brethren. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: 14.2 in Reisterstown. New record low for my site (5 years of data). It's a damn shame that shortwave is tugging it west. A little less phase and it could of been a real nice snow. Probably needed some phase to get it up the coast, just less than were getting . Always needing to thread the needle but that how we roll lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 1 hour ago, Snowchaser said: HRRR That map shows 28” less than what the Euro shows for Erie, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 16 minutes ago, pazzo83 said: lol - DCA doin DCA things still 21.9 next a plane’s jet engine lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeff B Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 14.2/94 miles WSW of Hunt Valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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