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January 16-17, 2022 MLK storm obs/now cast


George BM
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17 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Hard to see how icing doesn’t over perform out west of DC, temp still 21 has not budged since 1pm. I understand that when the winds shift we warm up quick but I don’t see us gain 11 degrees in 5 hours to switch to rain, that’s over 2 degrees an hour.

 

20 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

997 mb low appears to be offshore near NC-SC border, track from pressure falls and upper level winds most likely to run inland between ORF and RIC then up the west side of Ches Bay between DC and BAL by 03z (possibly right over DCA). At the surface I think this cold wedge is trapped for the duration, at least in the DC and noVA regions, BWI may get close to 45F briefly but DCA 35F and IAD 33F with the changeover only coming near end of precip anyway, could be some lightning around by 00z especially over se MD and DE. 

Would expect final snowfalls in the 3-6" range (with obviously higher totals in mtns) west of Baltimore, around 1.5" in Baltimore. 

 

That’s an explicit idea and although I was rebuked about where the main center of circulation is, it seems like you concur? When NWS was jumping all over the place late this morning they had DcA mixing by now then reverted back to snowfall slightly past dark.  We are losing the high pressure support but the low well may end up east of here and not over or west.  1994 had one like this but the snow only lasted 30 minutes then low 20’s  freezing rain.  Right now low would have to head NW to end up west of DC.  Memories of that kind of move from on the  coast are very rare. 

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