TSG Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 The cold is really holding on strong up against the Blue Ridge. Stations still reading in the mid/upper teens all the way down to the NC/VA border. 18/8 in cville, light snow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 7 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z GFS Better or worse. I can’t remember Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Snow falling in Harrisonburg 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 32 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Dang, you’re more optimistic than I and I thought I was weenieing out a bit. I was thinking 2” was a solid bar to clear. I have (perhaps too) high expectations for the WAA thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 I live on a main road in Cville so my chief focus through the midday will be when the road caves. They pretreated the ever-loving-hell out of the main arteries. And the 5th Street Station (large strip mall) parking lot this morning was filled with linemen and their trucks ready to deploy for any power outages. Must have been 30 trucks there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Would someone more knowledgeable be willing to explain how this is a sleet/snow sounding? The highest temp in the the column is 20 degrees. It isn't. The automated algorithm clearly is struggling there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 4 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: One of the trends I like seeing on the RAP/HRRR combo is the downward adjustment of the surface temp for later this evening. It might not make it down to 32 for area east of Rt 15 beyond 03z, but it's trending colder west of their, and that spells a greater threat for ice. Also, the surface is extremely cold, especially the elevated areas where ice may occur while temp is between 32-34 degrees. Some slick spots will show up late, even for those in the rain. Keep an eye on that. Snow forecast looks pretty solid right now. I might bust a bit low on some of my ranges here if the trend holds. Ground truth to the south says this will be a better event than what we were anticipating 24 hrs ago. Love reverse, positive trends yea, seems like there's a more easterly component on the gfs than the high res models. this is one of those storms where mets earn their paper. gonna be a lot of flight delays incoming as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 What happened to the hot and heavy thump. How did this become a light snow event 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 1 minute ago, Herb@MAWS said: I have (perhaps too) high expectations for the WAA thump. You're not alone. Many cases where high expectations for the thump are left unmet. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Would someone more knowledgeable be willing to explain how this is a sleet/snow sounding? The highest temp in the the column is 20 degrees. It’s not. That’s pure snow. GFS algorithm is off there. Would say it’s an artifact of the site calculation. Wouldn’t worry too much about the GFS at this range. Stick to hi-res guidance and observations. It’s go time!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 1 minute ago, MN Transplant said: It isn't. The automated algorithm clearly is struggling there. Ninja’d 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Western low not as intense 15z HRR 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 1 minute ago, MN Transplant said: It isn't. The automated algorithm clearly is struggling there. What do you think about what Pann tweeted ref Theta-e advection? Not sure I’ve read a reference to that by you or other red taggers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 May develop secondary more.. who knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Just now, BristowWx said: What do you think about what Pann tweeted ref Theta-e advection? Not sure I’ve read a reference to that by you or other red taggers Even if the storm gravitates to the tongue of Theta-E along the coast, the phasing s/w with the ULL will allow for a negative tilt of the mean trough and the low will pull NW into the area. Absolutely nothing will stop that considering the 5H low track is well modeled at this point. Perhaps a tick east keeps the thermals from going to hell a little earlier, but there isn’t going to be a major shift to all snow for east of the Piedmont. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Potvinsux Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 My amateur video making of current conditions. https://youtu.be/IdvXuQq_FgE 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said: Even if the storm gravitates to the tongue of Theta-E along the coast, the phasing s/w with the ULL will allow for a negative tilt of the mean trough and the low will pull NW into the area. Absolutely nothing will stop that considering the 5H low track is well modeled at this point. Perhaps a tick east keeps the thermals from going to hell a little earlier, but there isn’t going to be a major shift to all snow for east of the Piedmont. Roger. Thanks. Being in the piedmont I read that as you are saying there is a chance 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Even if the storm gravitates to the tongue of Theta-E along the coast, the phasing s/w with the ULL will allow for a negative tilt of the mean trough and the low will pull NW into the area. Absolutely nothing will stop that considering the 5H low track is well modeled at this point. Perhaps a tick east keeps the thermals from going to hell a little earlier, but there isn’t going to be a major shift to all snow for east of the Piedmont. In other words…..Pann is a weenie. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 3 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Even if the storm gravitates to the tongue of Theta-E along the coast, the phasing s/w with the ULL will allow for a negative tilt of the mean trough and the low will pull NW into the area. Absolutely nothing will stop that considering the 5H low track is well modeled at this point. Perhaps a tick east keeps the thermals from going to hell a little earlier, but there isn’t going to be a major shift to all snow for east of the Piedmont. You sir need to get a job at LWX stat. Really appreciate your analysis and explanations of the dynamics at work. Great stuff as always. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 8 minutes ago, Ji said: What happened to the hot and heavy thump. How did this become a light snow event As soon as I start to think your posts are getting better, you follow-up with posts like these… 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Check out the banding on NWS Radar from Savannah up to the NW between Macon and Augusta, SC. They stream all the way up to Asheville. Are those Gravity Waves? Looks intense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 3 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Roger. Thanks. Being in the piedmont I read that as you are saying there is a chance I think 4" is possible for the western half of Howard Co if everything breaks right. Fingers crossed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Any flakes in near EZF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 I think it's going to hold, 18F here at 11:20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said: I think 4" is possible for the western half of Howard Co if everything breaks right. Fingers crossed! Awesome! I am in the western half of PWC but considering this is a east to west deal more than north south I am enthused. Appreciate you! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 HRRR is even busting high on temps now. 15z has Cville at 24 degrees at noon. It's currently 18 here 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 18.7 / 6 Columbia 11:25am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonjon Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Flakes have begun this far north in Davis. Go time 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Been saving these clips for the future. What a storm. 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 4 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Awesome! I am in the western half of PWC but considering this is a east to west deal more than north south I am enthused. Appreciate you! I just realized you are in VA. Man, I need more coffee lol East-west gradient definitely works in your favor. 2-4" I think is a lock with a crust of sleet/ZR in the mix before any flip to rain. A true barrage of all the elements. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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