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January 16-17, 2022 MLK storm obs/now cast


George BM
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12 minutes ago, Herb@MAWS said:

My bar for this event in Columbia, even if snow gets washed away in the end:
Less than 3" total snowfall = BUST
3"- 4" -- Decent, all things considered
4"- 6" -- Better than I would have expected, all things considered
> 6"   -- BOOM

Ground coated/covered white after storm ends and it looks like winter outside:  That's all I really ever hoped for.

Morning low 10.3 around dawn.  Up to 16.6 at 10:15am.  Need clouds to hold tough and need snow to roll in quickly today.

Dang, you’re more optimistic than I and I thought I was weenieing out a bit. I was thinking 2” was a solid bar to clear. 

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7 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

The front end frozen on the HRRR looks decent, but it has also been pumping the temperatures on the back side of the precip shield.  Now nearly 50 degree rain at DCA at midnight.

This is a better trade off. I mean would you rather have 3 inches and then a spike to 50 or a inch and spike to 40?

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1 minute ago, mattie g said:

How about don’t post them?

There’s one every other post, so you can’t but help read them, and they all say the same thing.

I think it's time to retire the Congrats too. Enough already with it. Every other post when a bad model run comes out.

Congrats Detroit, Congrats Denver. Not funny anymore. 

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