WinterWxLuvr Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 On 1/16/2022 at 2:13 PM, Bob Chill said: This is why it's always best to wait until approach before jumping on Nam thermals when they diverge. Meso models can go off on tangents due to their intense resolution. Now that the storm actually has a good circulation, we'll see mesos hone in on the mids. Expand They’ll have it nailed down by this time tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fourseasons Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 On 1/16/2022 at 1:56 PM, Bob Chill said: So a road trip could be Kentuck into Pleasant Gap followed by Tightsqueeze and then Climax. Just stay TF out of Lumpkin Forest with your Kentuck and all is good. Expand Say hello to us. ---Dildo, Newfoundland and Labrador Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Snow is reaching the ground in Roanoke, Lynchburg, and as far as Buchanan on I81 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 If you put your really big weenie hat on you can draw some very slight similarities to the 2014 all snow west track. Might have been 2015. Worst track and high placement ever for an all snow event. There's a chance 4 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 On 1/16/2022 at 2:13 PM, Bob Chill said: This is why it's always best to wait until approach before jumping on Nam thermals when they diverge. Meso models can go off on tangents due to their intense resolution. Now that the storm actually has a good circulation, we'll see mesos hone in on the mids. Expand This has potential to be a sneaky event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 3k nam says i'm a lucky punk 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATECH Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 I need a cigarette after the last 5 minutes of this thread…19, dp7, wet Bulb 16.7. time for boozy coffee with this stuff, love it! 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 On 1/16/2022 at 2:15 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: They’ll have it nailed down by this time tomorrow Expand 3km NAM actually jives with my forecast now. All the main players are well within reason. Love to see it. 12km NAM will come around on Tuesday 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Is there any chance of this being like the mid-January 2000 surprise that didn’t change to rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 On 1/16/2022 at 2:19 PM, snowmagnet said: Is there any chance of this being like the mid-January 2000 surprise that didn’t change to rain? Expand Pretty much none, but I think a longer period of ZR is possible for areas NW of the Piedmont. Rates may prevent high accretion, but temps staying at or below freezing could definitely occur Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Going to be hard to change over I-95/NW for heaviest precip 14z 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Love waking up and getting a hard NAMing 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 On 1/16/2022 at 2:20 PM, StormchaserChuck! said: Going to be hard to change over I-95/NW for heaviest precip Expand You maybe underestimating 49 degree ocean temps, SE winds, and that pesky 850 low. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 On 1/16/2022 at 2:18 PM, GATECH said: I need a cigarette after the last 5 minutes of this thread…19, dp7, wet Bulb 16.7. time for boozy coffee with this stuff, love it! Expand Oooooh you got some Krakken too. Love the vanilla notes in that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 On 1/16/2022 at 2:18 PM, GATECH said: I need a cigarette after the last 5 minutes of this thread…19, dp7, wet Bulb 16.7. time for boozy coffee with this stuff, love it! Expand Good choice.. I actually just went the old school bailey's and Irish whiskey/ whip cream rout... Snow on the doorstep here in Glen Allen,VA hopefully can take advantage of some good rates b4 the changeover down here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 1/2” on the ground. High high ratios. Everything instantly caved 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ephesians2 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 SN- in Lynchburg with a light dusting. 19/10. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 On 1/16/2022 at 2:18 PM, leesburg 04 said: 3k nam says i'm a lucky punk Expand Maybe it’s not done correcting to the all snow pummeling. Bitterly cold still. 19/8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Temp climbing steadily. 13/3 with a wet bulb of 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 On 1/16/2022 at 2:24 PM, BristowWx said: You maybe underestimating 49 degree ocean temps, SE winds, and that pesky 850 low. Expand Air is damn cold for our area so pretty dense dome to push out of here. More often than not, surface hangs longer than expected in these setups. Nothing can stop the 850mb push tho. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 On 1/16/2022 at 2:28 PM, Bob Chill said: Air is damn cold for our area so pretty dense dome to push out of here. More often than not, surface hangs longer than expected in these setups. Nothing can stop the 850mb push tho. Expand Roger that. Still 14 here which is impressive. Let the chips fall. It’s game time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 On 1/16/2022 at 2:28 PM, Bob Chill said: Air is damn cold for our area so pretty dense dome to push out of here. More often than not, surface hangs longer than expected in these setups. Nothing can stop the 850mb push tho. Expand It is super cold out and that cold air damming is impressive. You think this leads to more freezing rain than expected once we change over? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paxpatriot Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 I know I’m being trolled when the NAM says that everyone north, south, east, and west of me gets more snow. It’s warmed to a balmy 12/3 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 On 1/16/2022 at 2:16 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: Snow is reaching the ground in Roanoke, Lynchburg, and as far as Buchanan on I81 Expand Love to track the snow in these setups on the 81 traffic cameras. Looks like its up to the Natural Bridge area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 On 1/16/2022 at 2:04 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: I love Va Expand You missed one. ...nevermind, it's Hopewell, not Hungwell. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 On 1/16/2022 at 8:32 AM, MN Transplant said: I’ll leave the snowfall map to others, but the 06z NAM nest is similar to prior. Lose the column at 5pm after 0.15” precip in DC, lose the surface at 7pm after an additional 0.15” frozen. Expand Oh, NAM. 12z is snow through ~6pm with about 0.3" precip in DC and frozen through ~8pm with another 0.2". So, not only a later changeover, but more precip early. And in Minnesota - Climax is very close to Fertile and up the road from Moorhead. So, yeah. 6 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 On 1/16/2022 at 1:56 PM, Bob Chill said: So a road trip could be Kentuck into Pleasant Gap followed by Tightsqueeze and then Climax. Just stay TF out of Lumpkin Forest with your Kentuck and all is good. Expand After that, head on up to Intercourse, PA and do the whole trip over again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 On 1/16/2022 at 2:34 PM, MN Transplant said: Oh, NAM. 12z is snow through ~6pm with about 0.3" precip in DC and frozen through ~8pm with another 0.2". So, not only a later changeover, but more precip early. Expand The NAM is that one friend who you know is gonna show up to the party, but when they do, they are drunk already 1 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 On 1/16/2022 at 2:28 PM, Bob Chill said: Air is damn cold for our area so pretty dense dome to push out of here. More often than not, surface hangs longer than expected in these setups. Nothing can stop the 850mb push tho. Expand As part of the infrastructure bill we need a seawall built from NC to Ocean City up to the 850 level. That should do it. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 On 1/16/2022 at 1:51 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: Only in Virginia lol Expand Lol, I actually stop in Tightsqueeze for gas sometimes when I drive down 29 to Atlanta. And I stop mainly because of the name! Interesting history, actually. That town basically invented the drive thru back in 1870! “The community of Tightsqueeze got its name due to the construction of two buildings close to a road that connected Chatham and Danville during the 19th century. In 1870, W. H. Colbert built his general store close enough to the road that women could go straight from their carriages to the store without getting muddy or dusty. Soon, another merchant, Isaiah Giles, built a blacksmith-wheelwright shop directly across the road from the general store. It, too, was on the road's edge. Due to the closeness of the two buildings, buggies and wagons had to slow down as they passed between the two buildings. Thus, individuals were told to slow down for the "tight squeeze" where the two stores were located.” (from Wikipedia) 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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