rochesterdave Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Just now, Thinksnow18 said: It’s incredible to think we will see rates that are up there with the heaviest LES events we’ve seen. How cool would that be! I don’t ever see rates above 2”. I’d be in heaven 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Just now, rochesterdave said: Is that from the 18z? No just came out. Has pivot point near rochester. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Just now, TugHillMatt said: Looks like Williamsport, Scranton, and Selinsgrove, PA are all moderate snow still. That heavy banding doesn't seem to be sleet (yet). Hudson Valley is snow as well. Change of thinking? see a ray of hope? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Been wanting to do this! Wish I had my set a little more together but this should work for a good test run. Positioned my ring to time lapse. Hope it comes out! 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 1 minute ago, rochesterdave said: How cool would that be! I don’t ever see rates above 2”. I’d be in heaven It’s up there with some of the best snowfalls I’ve seen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 5 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: Mix line definitely starting to pick up steam in Southern PA by looks. Hopefully the damage is already done before it gets here. That is a nice, wide area of snow! For now, the dryslot seems so far west. Seems much juicier on our side of the state than modeling showed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 15 minutes ago, tim123 said: I won't post any maps. Lmao RGEM 00Z does look better for CNY. Dryslot more diffused and briefer. Hope it's right. NAM looks like it's on crack with the slot but KBGM AFD update loves NAM... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 3 minutes ago, sferic said: Change of thinking? see a ray of hope? A bit, but still cautious. Syracuse is a microclimate in itself. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Not what I wanted to hear lol The latest 00Z 1/17 NAM has trended colder with surface temperatures as well but sends a warm pocket of air at 850 mb northwestward across the region for a time around midnight. Also a warm nose advances northward from the 850 and 925 mb levels northwest as well through the region. So far the NAM,RGEM and HRRR have a decent handle of the warm layer while the 18Z GFS 1/16 is too cold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 6 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: How cool would that be! I don’t ever see rates above 2”. I’d be in heaven This is what it does in 6 hours. Qpf 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 17, 2022 Author Share Posted January 17, 2022 HRRR went nuts 1:10, such a terrible model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 4 minutes ago, Syrmax said: RGEM 00Z does look better for CNY. Dryslot more diffused and briefer. Hope it's right. NAM looks like it's on crack with the slot but KBGM AFD update loves NAM... They actually increased snowfall amounts though. Check it out! 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 17, 2022 Author Share Posted January 17, 2022 I just looked at CC and that is all snow. That deserves all the buns. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: HRRR went nuts 1:10, such a terrible model. picking up in the south towns yet? i'm thinking about 20 minutes or so i'll venture out to intercept that thing... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 BGM'S maps often don't match their discussions. It's almost like trying to "get it right" two different ways. They mentioned increasing snow amounts a bit and the surface being colder...but then talk about going with Nam and an increase in sleet. But then the map looks much better. Perplexing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 17, 2022 Author Share Posted January 17, 2022 17 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: Mix line definitely starting to pick up steam in Southern PA by looks. Hopefully the damage is already done before it gets here. How do you export this radar loop on here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 17, 2022 Author Share Posted January 17, 2022 4 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: picking up in the south towns yet? i'm thinking about 20 minutes or so i'll venture out to intercept that thing... Around 1-1.5" per Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: How do you export this radar loop on here? Once it's in animated loop I just hold down on my phone screen and download the image. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 51 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: I just wish everyone here could experience what I did in Nov 2014. Nothing will ever compare to 88" of snow in 3 days. I don't care if it was "fake" snow it had 6-7" of QPF in it when sampled. Walking around in the middle of the 5-6" per hour stuff for hours on end was just incredible, hard to put into words. Having said that, those rates are increasing and expanding to our south, if that's all snow its about to come down 2-3" per. I was in Oswego for 4 years so definitely experienced LES in all its glory. Thunder, lightning and 8"/hr rates, once. 12" in 1.5hrs. Only ended up with 36" overnight with that band. Mexico got over 50". 1994, I think. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Bmg hows it lookin. Band look rocking especially to your west in elmira Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 992 over Va Beach. 994 over WVA. Pressure falls up through WPA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 2 hour pressure falls seem to be near Baltimore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Going to south central pa the drift ne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 3 minutes ago, tim123 said: Bmg hows it lookin. Band look rocking especially to your west in elmira Still rippin'. I been taking measurements at :20 past the hour. Definitely thinking it will be above 1"/hr at next interval. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Hetsko (local met) just said he’s less worried about sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxNoob Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Rates really picking up outside of Ithaca, heaviest of night so far. Eyeballing 2-3 inches thus far. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 5 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: 992 over Va Beach. 994 over WVA. Pressure falls up through WPA. 00z NAM 3k was 989 @03z. So over amped still. We might be ok. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 4 minutes ago, tim123 said: Bmg hows it lookin. Band look rocking especially to your west in elmira KBGM is reporting SN 1/2 mile visibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 2 minutes ago, WxNoob said: Rates really picking up outside of Ithaca, heaviest of night so far. Eyeballing 2-3 inches thus far. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Models have been showing 10 to 1 ratios with this front end. Anyone guess what they actually are? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now