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Jan 16-18th Major Synoptic Snowstorm- Observation Thread


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Almost game time! Go Bills!

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM
EST SUNDAY...
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM SUNDAY TO
10 PM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...For the Winter Storm Warning, heavy snow expected. Total
snow accumulations of 12 to 20 inches. Winds gusting as high as
40 mph on Monday. For the Wind Chill Advisory, very cold wind
chills expected. Wind chills as low as 15 below zero.
 

StormTotalSnow.thumb.jpg.c858d31453617eb264c537f499e890ff.jpg

Snow Angel Nfl GIF - Snow Angel Nfl Buffalo Bills - Discover & Share GIFs

 

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Prediction based largely on gut feeling:

- Taint and periphery of dry slot cuts right through Monroe County; monster band stays over BUF/Niagara and up towards Toronto

TOR: 14"

NIA: 21"

BUF: 19"

ROC: 8" (mostly light-moderate snow, just missing the heavy stuff)

SYR: 6" (mostly backside)

BGM: 3" (mostly sleet)

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1 minute ago, PerintonMan said:

Prediction based largely on gut feeling:

- Taint and periphery of dry slot cuts right through Monroe County; monster band stays over BUF/Niagara and up towards Toronto

TOR: 14"

NIA: 21"

BUF: 19"

ROC: 8" (mostly light-moderate snow, just missing the heavy stuff)

SYR: 6" (mostly backside)

BGM: 3" (mostly sleet)

I’ll wait for 0z. NAM is the only model showing the shit show touching Monroe. So I hope we can stay mostly snow. But I feel ya! 

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2 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

I’ll wait for 0z. NAM is the only model showing the shit show touching Monroe. So I hope we can stay mostly snow. But I feel ya! 

Yes, my prediction leans pessimistic (though if I were going full pessimist, I'd say that ROC struggles to even get 4-5" with the taint and dry slot lasting most of the duration after a few initial inches and the backside failing to materialize).

I think ROC could easily get 16"+ if the models showing us getting into the monster band for at least a few hours are accurate.

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BUF - 14.7”

IAG - 16.5”

ROC - 13.9”

SYR - 5.2”

BGM - 2.7”

YYZ - 15.1” 

Still think almost all of us ping with sneaky warm mid levels in spots, albeit briefly, holding down totals from going gangbusters but would still be impressive to have over a foot of snow and an inch or 2 of solid sleet. 
 

Think this thing land up about 50 further NW as this thing unfolds and becomes a nowcasting event thus an IAG to YYZ jackpot IMO. 

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Just now, vortmax said:

My gut tells me the def band will push NW quickly. Dang. No LE included.

BUF - 18.5”

IAG - 19.5”

ROC - 11.3”

SYR - 5.0”

BGM - 3.1”

YYZ - 14.0”

BUF - 21.4”

IAG - 23.7”

ROC - 16.2”

SYR - 6.8”

BGM - 2.1”

YYZ - 15.2”

yes I’m going big. Don’t be afraid fellow weenies. It’s our time.

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6 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

That was a super elevation dependent storm if I’m remember it correctly. Had to be over 2000 feet for any snow.  

I vaguely remember a big storm around that time, 12”+ in early April in early/mid 2000’s.  Track might have been similar too with big negative tilter. Recall being amazed and admittedly annoyed that much snow fell in early April. 

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1 hour ago, DeltaT13 said:

I have no idea what you’re thinking of but we didn’t even get an inch in April of 2005

This storm: https://jimsullivanweather.com/2013/02/17/april-2-3-2005-northern-ohio-snowstorm/

This summary is focused on Ohio, which saw up to 22 inches in Ashtabula County, but the highest totals were in Erie and Crawford Counties in Pennsylvania, and Chautauqua and southern Erie Counties in New York, where 2-3 feet totals were fairly common. Erie Airport officially tallied only 14.8" but the highest totals were inland away from the lake.

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