BuffaloWeather Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Almost game time! Go Bills! ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY... ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM SUNDAY TO 10 PM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...For the Winter Storm Warning, heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 12 to 20 inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph on Monday. For the Wind Chill Advisory, very cold wind chills expected. Wind chills as low as 15 below zero. 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 NWS nailed the forecast today, high of 4° and low of -10°, exactly what they had.. Back to 0 now with another cold night on tap.. Good luck to all.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Damm getting 18-24" from a synoptic storm is pretty impressive for WNY!! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 minute ago, ayuud11 said: Damm getting 18-24" from a synoptic storm is pretty impressive for WNY!! When was the last time that happened ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 With winds towards the end we should see some 3’ drifts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Snow weenie heaven in Altmar today. High of 2. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PerintonMan Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Prediction based largely on gut feeling: - Taint and periphery of dry slot cuts right through Monroe County; monster band stays over BUF/Niagara and up towards Toronto TOR: 14" NIA: 21" BUF: 19" ROC: 8" (mostly light-moderate snow, just missing the heavy stuff) SYR: 6" (mostly backside) BGM: 3" (mostly sleet) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Go Bills! Good luck with the storm. I’m out for this one, but hopefully there’s another big dog event this winter that can draw me west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 minute ago, PerintonMan said: Prediction based largely on gut feeling: - Taint and periphery of dry slot cuts right through Monroe County; monster band stays over BUF/Niagara and up towards Toronto TOR: 14" NIA: 21" BUF: 19" ROC: 8" (mostly light-moderate snow, just missing the heavy stuff) SYR: 6" (mostly backside) BGM: 3" (mostly sleet) I’ll wait for 0z. NAM is the only model showing the shit show touching Monroe. So I hope we can stay mostly snow. But I feel ya! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PerintonMan Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: I’ll wait for 0z. NAM is the only model showing the shit show touching Monroe. So I hope we can stay mostly snow. But I feel ya! Yes, my prediction leans pessimistic (though if I were going full pessimist, I'd say that ROC struggles to even get 4-5" with the taint and dry slot lasting most of the duration after a few initial inches and the backside failing to materialize). I think ROC could easily get 16"+ if the models showing us getting into the monster band for at least a few hours are accurate. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 10 minutes ago, MJO812 said: When was the last time that happened ? I believe back in 07 if I'm correct? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 BUF: 13 ROC: 14 (not including late lake effect) SYR: 8 BGM: 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Good luck to all. My predictions: Toronto: 6-8" Niagara Falls: 20" Buffalo: 15" Ottawa: 15-20" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 BUF - 14.7” IAG - 16.5” ROC - 13.9” SYR - 5.2” BGM - 2.7” YYZ - 15.1” Still think almost all of us ping with sneaky warm mid levels in spots, albeit briefly, holding down totals from going gangbusters but would still be impressive to have over a foot of snow and an inch or 2 of solid sleet. Think this thing land up about 50 further NW as this thing unfolds and becomes a nowcasting event thus an IAG to YYZ jackpot IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Just now, Ottawa Blizzard said: Good luck to all. My predictions: Toronto: 6-8" Niagara Falls: 20" Buffalo: 15" Ottawa: 15-20" I'm living in Toronto, so that isn't a wish cast! Hoping for 12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 30 minutes ago, Buckeyes_Suck said: With winds towards the end we should see some 3’ drifts. Is it possible we see blizzard conditions in the early am? We have the snowfall rates, the winds and the cold…only thing stopping it is that it’s MLK day and the roads won’t be as packed? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 My gut tells me the def band will push NW quickly. Dang. No LE included. BUF - 18.5” IAG - 19.5” ROC - 11.3” SYR - 5.0” BGM - 3.1” YYZ - 14.0” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 It's tough to make a forecast without the use of SR models in better range especially with banding..I'll do my call after 12z runs tomorrow lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Just now, vortmax said: My gut tells me the def band will push NW quickly. Dang. No LE included. BUF - 18.5” IAG - 19.5” ROC - 11.3” SYR - 5.0” BGM - 3.1” YYZ - 14.0” BUF - 21.4” IAG - 23.7” ROC - 16.2” SYR - 6.8” BGM - 2.1” YYZ - 15.2” yes I’m going big. Don’t be afraid fellow weenies. It’s our time. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 My all in #s by 7am Tuesday: BUF - 16” IAG - 19” ROC - 17” SYR - 7” BGM - 4” YYZ - 8” Toofless- 11" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 ballsy no mention at all of IP, straight snow per nws. I dunno, I'm def expecting some here and down towards cuse. Wouldn't rule it out for buf and roc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 2 hours ago, ayuud11 said: Damm getting 18-24" from a synoptic storm is pretty impressive for WNY!! You guys can get big storms. There were a lot of 2-3' totals with the April 2-3, 2005 snow storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 26 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said: You guys can get big storms. There were a lot of 2-3' totals with the April 2-3, 2005 snow storm. I have no idea what you’re thinking of but we didn’t even get an inch in April of 2005 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 48 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said: You guys can get big storms. There were a lot of 2-3' totals with the April 2-3, 2005 snow storm. That was a super elevation dependent storm if I’m remember it correctly. Had to be over 2000 feet for any snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 6 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: That was a super elevation dependent storm if I’m remember it correctly. Had to be over 2000 feet for any snow. I vaguely remember a big storm around that time, 12”+ in early April in early/mid 2000’s. Track might have been similar too with big negative tilter. Recall being amazed and admittedly annoyed that much snow fell in early April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 1 hour ago, DeltaT13 said: I have no idea what you’re thinking of but we didn’t even get an inch in April of 2005 This storm: https://jimsullivanweather.com/2013/02/17/april-2-3-2005-northern-ohio-snowstorm/ This summary is focused on Ohio, which saw up to 22 inches in Ashtabula County, but the highest totals were in Erie and Crawford Counties in Pennsylvania, and Chautauqua and southern Erie Counties in New York, where 2-3 feet totals were fairly common. Erie Airport officially tallied only 14.8" but the highest totals were inland away from the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Hope Buf is enjoying the game! HRR came into a little better alignment with the envelope of the cooler models after being a SE outlier at 18z. It would be good for me if I trusted it at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Looks like nam caved to globals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 11 minutes ago, tim123 said: Looks like nam caved to globals. Post? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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