burrel2 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 1 minute ago, ILMRoss said: I'll pump the breaks and say @84 never mind. Too much separation. Another event coming but it won't be a kingmaker. yea, strange b/c it doesn't match the 84 rgem at all really with regard to the trough interaction with the baja wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 0 for 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 I’m almost to the point of taking 2-4 inches of clean snow and cashing out. Flirting with phases and big dogs is a risky, mixey proposition. edit: CMC is actually a really great storm for NE NC 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Using Kuchera, because this will not be a 10:1 storm. Ratios should be much higher. The cmc is a moderate event, northern NC into Southern VA and more of a major event for SE VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 I will gladly take this. Just tired of the models, and it's pretty much all of them, showing a big storm with a great evolution 7 days out, and then becoming a complicated mess when we get inside 5 days. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 8 minutes ago, wncsnow said: 0 for 2 Maybe for you lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Wow so we are all pretty much snowed under and we have another one to track? Best winter in several years lol. It’s hard to think a on other southern storm may be on the way all in all the models for this past storm we’re not that bad for mby. I ended up with a bit more than I thought and we fell into the range that was being discussed on Thursday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Just now, BornAgain13 said: Maybe for you lol Nah we just got a foot of snow this way 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Just now, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Nah we just got a foot of snow this way I would hope so. You are in the mountains lol. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Looks like having multiple disturbances is what's making this so hard to figure out on the models now. Two days ago it was easy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Funny thing about the CMC is that even after all that pessimism we still get a decent event. The CMC splits the two shortwave so much that the northern shortwave, less encumbered by the southern wave interaction, is able to maintain some integrity and have a better tilt. The things that stings is that this set up does not need southern stream interaction. The northern stream can get this done on its own; we need to trend with the shortwave being stronger and digging more. We're currently seeing the opposite trend. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 So, looks like we have a lot of possible scenarios still and the models are all showing different ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 UK shows both systems , 1 late Thursday and then another one after that... the 2nd one is the bigger one but it is more coastal. .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 The UK 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said: So, looks like we have a lot of possible scenarios still and the models are all showing different ones. *sherlock holmes voice* that's meteorology my dear brick 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 euro is going to win out ... always the best in setups like this 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 3 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: The UK And UK for the win! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Greg Fishel's thoughts. He actually likes the GFS over the Euro. HERE WE GO AGAIN! No sooner do we get done with one winter tease, and now we appear headed for an encore performance later this week or over the weekend. The operative word here is "tease"! I must say, after singing the praises of the European model for decades, something has gone very wrong with our friends across the pond. Take the last 3 model runs for instance-big snow to nothing to big snow. I actually trust the American global model more now, and I never thought I would utter those words. Well, no matter what happens with precipitation, another potent shot of arctic air is on the way, and our overall below normal temperture pattern seems destined to continue for awhile. We've experienced below normal temperatures 7 of the last 10 days, with more to come. If anything does happen later this week, it would be induced by the development of a wave of low pressure along the leading edge of the next cold air mass. The question is does that happen, or is it just an innocent cold frontal passage? Time will tell. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beach Snow Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 7 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: Greg Fishel's thoughts. He actually likes the GFS over the Euro. HERE WE GO AGAIN! No sooner do we get done with one winter tease, and now we appear headed for an encore performance later this week or over the weekend. The operative word here is "tease"! I must say, after singing the praises of the European model for decades, something has gone very wrong with our friends across the pond. Take the last 3 model runs for instance-big snow to nothing to big snow. I actually trust the American global model more now, and I never thought I would utter those words. Well, no matter what happens with precipitation, another potent shot of arctic air is on the way, and our overall below normal temperture pattern seems destined to continue for awhile. We've experienced below normal temperatures 7 of the last 10 days, with more to come. If anything does happen later this week, it would be induced by the development of a wave of low pressure along the leading edge of the next cold air mass. The question is does that happen, or is it just an innocent cold frontal passage? Time will tell. Time will tell but we are literally only 4 days and i can’t see how the gfs is right this time when so far 3 including icon of 5 globals show a decent event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beach Snow Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 4 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: GEFS does look good for 95 east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 19 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: Greg Fishel's thoughts. He actually likes the GFS over the Euro. HERE WE GO AGAIN! No sooner do we get done with one winter tease, and now we appear headed for an encore performance later this week or over the weekend. The operative word here is "tease"! I must say, after singing the praises of the European model for decades, something has gone very wrong with our friends across the pond. Take the last 3 model runs for instance-big snow to nothing to big snow. I actually trust the American global model more now, and I never thought I would utter those words. Well, no matter what happens with precipitation, another potent shot of arctic air is on the way, and our overall below normal temperture pattern seems destined to continue for awhile. We've experienced below normal temperatures 7 of the last 10 days, with more to come. If anything does happen later this week, it would be induced by the development of a wave of low pressure along the leading edge of the next cold air mass. The question is does that happen, or is it just an innocent cold frontal passage? Time will tell. So his thoughts are…. “We will see”? Very insightful Fish. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 7 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: So his thoughts are…. “We will see”? Very insightful Fish. Sometimes that's the only valid thought to have, if there isn't enough data to come to a conclusion. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 23 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Sometimes that's the only valid thought to have, if there isn't enough data to come to a conclusion. yeah, but holy cow there's a heck of a lot more data than that. Pretty sure this is more than just "innocent cold fropa". Now who gets what kind of precip and where?--Sure that's only really known to the Gods right now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 35 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: So his thoughts are…. “We will see”? Very insightful Fish. He said we’d hit 50 the other day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Sounds like the Euro might be coming in good 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beach Snow Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said: Sounds like the Euro might be coming in good As soon as we get in range ill start posting surface maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Canadian ensembles pushed their Tim hortons coffee and doughnuts to the center of the table 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Looks a little sharper heading into texas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Ice for many. Still, very long duration 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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