CaryWx Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 I know RAH uses the objective criteria for guidance on issuing county notices but wonder since Canes Hockey is a 'Go' this evening would they take subjective criteria into consideration as well. In other words, better to have Wake under a WSW just so they can cya with that event full of traffic. Sort of a---well folks, we had issued a WSW prior to the game 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 1 minute ago, CaryWx said: I know RAH uses the objective criteria for guidance on issuing county notices but wonder since Canes Hockey is a 'Go' this evening would they take subjective criteria into consideration as well. In other words, better to have Wake under a WSW just so they can cya with that event full of traffic. Sort of a---well folks, we had issued a WSW prior to the game I don't think they will do that. I think if they feel there is a decent chance at 3+ they will go warning 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 1 minute ago, CaryWx said: I know RAH uses the objective criteria for guidance on issuing county notices but wonder since Canes Hockey is a 'Go' this evening would they take subjective criteria into consideration as well. In other words, better to have Wake under a WSW just so they can cya with that event full of traffic. Sort of a---well folks, we had issued a WSW prior to the game I am pretty confident we will be NEAR 3 inches and it will be a high impact snow with temps, so yea, I do actually think a warning is warranted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 3 minutes ago, eyewall said: I think the GFS wants to develop a bit of banding, especially against the transition zone to IP/ZR. That wouldn't be unusual. To the north it is better ratios getting the job done. I saw that too on the gfs. Question is where exactly will that set up and how large and long of duration will it be.. Progged just northwest of the airport attm. Could be further northwest or further southeast. Going to have to wait until nowcast time I'm afraid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 1 minute ago, CaryWx said: I saw that too on the gfs. Question is where exactly will that set up and how large and long of duration will it be.. Progged just northwest of the airport attm. Could be further northwest or further southeast. Going to have to wait until nowcast time I'm afraid In this storm anything NW of you modeled is a good thing. You still have room to work with Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 Is that the ULL southwest of Ashville? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 Ok I’m ready to make a Call (bc Ik you’re all waiting with Anticipation) AND SURROUNDING AREAS for listed CLT- Dusting -2” GSO/Winston- 1-3” (We all know these areas always Do well) Fayetteville - 2-4” (Mixing issues at some point) Raleigh/Durham/Chapel-Hell - 3-6”+ Roxboro- 2 feet Columbia- Dusting-2” Elizabeth City/Norfolk/Hampton - 4-8” Wilmington/Myrtle Beach - Dusting-1 (Sleet), 1/4”-1/2” ICE 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunBlade Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 1 minute ago, CaryWx said: Is that the ULL southwest of Ashville? This does not actually close off to an ULL. That map is also lower level pressure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 5 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: I am pretty confident we will be NEAR 3 inches and it will be a high impact snow with temps, so yea, I do actually think a warning is warranted I think 3 to 5 for a large portion of NC is a safe bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunBlade Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 15z HRRR giving CLT a little more love as well with 1.5" this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 A westward expansion of the WSW is imminent. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow dog Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 8 minutes ago, GunBlade said: 15z HRRR giving CLT a little more love as well with 1.5" this run. Map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 9 minutes ago, GunBlade said: This does not actually close off to an ULL. That map is also lower level pressure Thanks Gun. Yep, sure missed that. Not down at 850mb. I need to pay attention more. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 2 minutes ago, msuwx said: A westward expansion of the WSW is imminent. See folks, it pays to be on a first name basis with the NWS offices. j/k Thanks for the heads up Matt. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JQPublic Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 7 minutes ago, msuwx said: A westward expansion of the WSW is imminent. on cue 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phishbfm Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlh Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 Its out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 Just got the WSW alert. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 2-4 inches in the Warning. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 12 minutes ago, msuwx said: A westward expansion of the WSW is imminent. Think CLT Metro Gets A WWA? Cabarrus already has one? I figure Rowan minimum? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 Hoping to get a few snow showers up this way but I'm happy for yall that don't normally see as much snow! I hope this thing overperforms for you all! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunBlade Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 15 minutes ago, Snow dog said: Map? Sorry was having issues on VPN getting images to work. Here you go. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlh Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 4 minutes ago, PantherJustin said: Think CLT Metro Gets A WWA? Cabarrus already has one? I figure Rowan minimum? Their most recent discussion mentions the possibility later if things play out a little more enhanced than present thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlh Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 1 hour ago, 85snowline said: What radar are you watching? Ty MyRadar on desktop, RadarOmega on the phone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDeac Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 Pretty odd to have a warning <50 miles from Charlotte and not even be under an advisory. They must seeing a pretty extreme gradient on the NW edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CLTwx Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 This may be a little off topic quick question , but speaking of weather apps, if I'm paying for one , which one should I get? Or which one is worth being paid for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mclean02 Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 5 minutes ago, CLTwx said: Yep that was my worry actually only takes a dusting bam a mess I think they could go with advisory imo(Edit) I don't they can since it might not be an inch which is the min)[the more you know lol] WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY Snow accumulations 1-3 inches; Any freezing rain accumulations less than ¼ inch; Any sleet accumulations less than ½ inch. Winter Weather Advisories are issued in any one of the three criteria are forecast to be met Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 Gsp discussion TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...As of 1045 AM EST: Upper divergence is ramping up, as indicatedby cooling cloud temps streaming into the area thanks to rightentrance region jet dynamics. This forcing is causing more snowto fall and seed the low-level moisture across the NC mountains(lots of reports of accumulating snow). So far, all the modelguidance seems to be struggling with this (consensus PoPs are lessthan 15%). So it`s really challenging to assess how much this willcontinue as we head thru the day. For now, think QPF will be verylight, and will handle with a Special Wx Statement (SPS). But anadvisory may be needed, if banding sets up (or the snow just staysmore persistent than expected). Outside the mountains, there`sa deeper dry layer preventing the seeder-feeder mechanism at themoment. However, both the NAM and GFS fcst soundings show overallmoistening profiles this aftn, and frontogenesis will ramp up towardsunset, as a strong shortwave approaches from the west. The bandingwill be parallel to the frontal zone (SW-NE orientation), butthe exact placement is still up for debate among the guidance. Itcould very well set up over the southern and central NC mountains,extending to the NW NC Piedmont. Then, things will shift SE, and thebest rates are still expected to be from Greenwood, SC to Cabarrus,NC and points E. This is where our current Winter Wx Advisory is,and that looks good. With the overall trends in the guidance sincethe 00z runs trending a little higher QPF this evening furtherwest into the Piedmont, we may need to expand the advisory. Butthere`s still not enough confidence, and will assess all the 12zguidance and the latest radar/satellite trends before making adecision. Will handle non-mountain snow/black ice concerns withan SPS as well for now.Otherwise, temps/dewpts/sky/wind all look good. It`s just thePoPs/QPF/SnowAmt we`re really concerned about.A strong short wave drops into the area tonight along with astrong upper jet streak. This induces cyclogenesis off the SEcoast. The surface low remains relatively far off shore. The H85low is also to our east. This keeps the low level flow weak and E toNE. There is quite a bit of low level moisture across the area butno significant moisture flux from either the Gulf or Atlantic. Thereis an increase in deep moisture late this afternoon and eveningthough. Given the strong forcing and decent moisture, have trendedtoward the higher precip chances seen in the guidance. That said,don`t have any likely PoP west of the I-77 corridor. Expect therewill be precip moving west to east across the area, but coverageand QPF will be limited. Forecast soundings and partial thicknessvalues suggest mainly snow for most of the area. Some sleet willbe possible at onset, with more of a rain/snow mix over NE GA,the western Upstate, and the warmer NC valleys to start. Precipchanges to all snow before ending after midnight.Highs today and lows tonight will be well below normal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 Looking good. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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