January 20-22 “bring the mojo” winter storm threat

[senc30]

I am going to assume I don't know how to read these models like the GFS. I look at it on tropical tidbits. It shows a period of 4-6 hours of freezing rain and then goes to snow. I look at my local weather and they don't mention any snow, just ice. Wish I knew what I was looking at wrong. 

[mclean02]

1 hour ago, burgertime said:

6z GFS has CLT dangerously close to getting in the 3-5 inch range now. 

Does triad have a good  chance of ground covering snow? 

[jlh]

20 minutes ago, senc30 said:

I am going to assume I don't know how to read these models like the GFS. I look at it on tropical tidbits. It shows a period of 4-6 hours of freezing rain and then goes to snow. I look at my local weather and they don't mention any snow, just ice. Wish I knew what I was looking at wrong. 

You may not be looking at it wrong, but models have different strengths and weaknesses. Additionally, the GFS may not be the model the forecaster chose to go with when they did their model verification. Also have to take climo and outside factors into account when reaching a forecast conclusion. Take a look at some of the higher resolution models for today and get a general feel for them together. But no model will be 100% correct, that's part of the fun in this is to see what actually happens and which one got close in the end.

[burgertime]

26 minutes ago, mclean02 said:

Does triad have a good  chance of ground covering snow? 

I would say yes, but some of the short range modeling is coming in dry as well so it's really anyone's guess at this point. Also RDU east has the best shot it looks like. 

[burgertime]

1 hour ago, jlh said:

You may not be looking at it wrong, but models have different strengths and weaknesses. Additionally, the GFS may not be the model the forecaster chose to go with when they did their model verification. Also have to take climo and outside factors into account when reaching a forecast conclusion. Take a look at some of the higher resolution models for today and get a general feel for them together. But no model will be 100% correct, that's part of the fun in this is to see what actually happens and which one got close in the end.

Good post. Also, often models will show backside snow because it has difficulty seeing when the moisture exits. In a lot of cases it sees the warm nose go, thinks there is still moisture and shows phantom snow. Depending on where the OP is located though it could legit turn to snow. But this will be good experience for a lot of posters to see how this storm unfolds. 

[senc30]

14 minutes ago, burgertime said:

Good post. Also, often models will show backside snow because it has difficulty seeing when the moisture exists. In a lot of cases it sees the warm nose go, thinks there is still moisture and shows phantom snow. Depending on where the OP is located though it could legit turn to snow. But this will be good experience for a lot of posters to see how this storm unfolds. 

Thanks for the helpful responses guys. Much appreciated. 

[scottk]

I may have read the forecasts wrong but I did not expect there to be basically no precipitation across SC and NC at this point…

[PackGrad05]

Just now, scottk said:

I may have read the forecasts wrong but I did not expect there to be basically no precipitation across SC and NC at this point…

A lull for most of the day was expected across central NC.  The low doesn't really intensify until later this afternoon toward evening..   

[scottk]

A lull for most of the day was expected across central NC.  The low doesn't really intensify until later this afternoon toward evening..   

Ah. Seems like the local forecast in NE SC kept showing a changeover to freezing weather between 5-8AM.

Oh well, I’m good either way as long as we don’t ge too much freezing rain.

[Justicebork]

You will get under the precip before almost everybody else.

[PantherJustin]

so I was excited about trends when I went to bed…. Then even this AM I thought they didn’t really budge …. But I’ve lived by a rule my entire weather Weenie life it doesn’t matter what models say if you’re not under a Winter Weather Product …. You’re missing something and it’s not gonna do anything lol but I thought I’d wake up to atleast a WWA

[ryanconway63]

NAM and HRRR look to bring the precip west quite a bit more with the 12z run......

[CaryWx]

6 minutes ago, PantherJustin said:

so I was excited about trends when I went to bed…. Then even this AM I thought they didn’t really budge …. But I’ve lived by a rule my entire weather Weenie life it doesn’t matter what models say if you’re not under a Winter Weather Product …. You’re missing something and it’s not gonna do anything lol but I thought I’d wake up to atleast a WWA

Yeah after the overnight models thought Wake country would be upgraded to a WSW but looks like RAH left their advisories as is.

[eyewall]

1 minute ago, CaryWx said:

Yeah after the overnight models thought Wake country would be upgraded to a WSW but looks like RAH left their advisories as is.

Too much uncertainty. This is a crapshoot so brace yourselves. The zones have the same for me as some of the warning areas though.

[CaryWx]

From RAH as of 5am

A wave of surface low pressure will then move offshore along the
stalled Arctic front later Friday into Friday night, with a mid-
level shortwave trough moving across NC. This will give the first
significant accumulating snow of the season to many parts of central
NC. Snow will spread from SE to NW from the late afternoon into the
overnight hours, heaviest and most widespread from about 00z to 06z
and exiting to the east by about 09z (possibly ending as freezing
drizzle) as dry air quickly moves in. Essentially all models,
including the GFS and ECMWF as well as short-term high-res models
like the NAM, RAP, and HRRR, have trended farther west with the low
and its associated precipitation shield during the last 24 hours.
Thus raised POPs to likely to categorical across most of the region
except the far NW, and increased forecast snowfall totals slightly.
Generally expect 3-4 inches east of I-95, 2-3 inches from the US-1
corridor to I-95, and a dusting to 2 inches NW of there. It should
be stressed that there is still some uncertainty on these totals, in
particular on how far west the snow shield will make it, as it will
be fighting dry air in the NW. The GFS continues to insist on a
stronger jet streak and associated upper divergence, and thus brings
the snow much farther west than other models do. Forecast amounts
may have to be raised a bit further if models continue their
westward trend, though the 06z NAM and GFS look very similar to
their 00z runs. Thus for now continue the Winter Storm Warnings and
Winter Weather Advisories as is, and will reassess the need to
change anything after the 12z guidance comes in. One thing we are
confident about is that the column will be sufficiently cold for
snow nearly everywhere. The one exception is the far SE (mainly
southern Sampson County) where models show still having enough warm
air aloft to stay sleet and freezing rain for much of the event.
Thus a tenth to a quarter inch of freezing rain is still forecast in
southern parts of Sampson county. Lows will be in the mid-teens to
lower-20s on Friday night with continued north winds around the
deepening low off the coast. This will bring wind chills down to the
single digits to lower-teens.

[wxdawg10]

1 minute ago, CaryWx said:

Yeah after the overnight models thought Wake country would be upgraded to a WSW but looks like RAH left their advisories as is.

they talked about the westward push in their am briefings and that it's likely they'll be updating amounts.  they already increased RDU from 1-2 to 2-3 inches.  i expect warnings later today.

[Brick Tamland]

NAM is looking good. 

[PackGrad05]

I'd be shocked to see more than 3" anywhere in Wake.  Trust me, I'm pulling for it, but based on climatology and situations like this in the past, I agree with RAH's statement about the dry air this far back and the extent of the western precip shield.

I'm going 1-3" across Wake, with most areas 1-2".  Still a great snow!

[Brick Tamland]

2 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

I'd be shocked to see more than 3" anywhere in Wake.  Trust me, I'm pulling for it, but based on climatology and situations like this in the past, I agree with RAH's statement about the dry air this far back and the extent of the western precip shield.

I'm going 1-3" across Wake, with most areas 1-2".  Still a great snow!

I still think 3 to 5 north of Raleigh and 6 to 8 into NE NC and SE VA is good. 

[CaryWx]

2 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

I'd be shocked to see more than 3" anywhere in Wake.  Trust me, I'm pulling for it, but based on climatology and situations like this in the past, I agree with RAH's statement about the dry air this far back and the extent of the western precip shield.

I'm going 1-3" across Wake, with most areas 1-2".  Still a great snow!

I hear you but typically your lead off comments 9x out of 10 would be attributing low totals to ip/zr.  Now we contend with air that is too dry and cold aloft.  We indeed live on a cutting edge weather gradient

[Prismshine Productions]

Old rule I haven't seen in awhile...

"Rates will overcome"

Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk

[eyewall]

4 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

I'd be shocked to see more than 3" anywhere in Wake.  Trust me, I'm pulling for it, but based on climatology and situations like this in the past, I agree with RAH's statement about the dry air this far back and the extent of the western precip shield.

I'm going 1-3" across Wake, with most areas 1-2".  Still a great snow!

I would say needs to be closer to 3 to make for some good photos. We shall see.

[olafminesaw]

The hires NAM reflectivity map looks great, but the precip map shows zero in the Triad. Will be fascinating to see how this plays out.

[PantherJustin]

9 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Too much uncertainty. This is a crapshoot so brace yourselves. The zones have the same for me as some of the warning areas though.

I’ve always wondered why NWS doesn’t just throw out WWA’s (you’ll see it from the sky don’t freak out) and never move up to WSW (it will cover your ground don’t freak out) unless it’s 110% sure…. WWA I highly doubt public even knows the difference  

[CaryWx]

7 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

NAM is looking good. 

You're now practically in the sweet spot 21hrs out Brick.

[WXNewton]

I like the look of precip starting to streak through the ATL area. I know this is probably not hitting the ground but it does seem to be building in intensity. No model has that moisture that far north. Maybe something to watch for light snow to breakout in parts of WNC later this afternoon. 

[NorthHillsWx]

I think RAH is spot on with their call. I don’t see Raleigh busting too much higher than the 2-3” forecast. With that even if we get 4” will it be a bust from impacts? Nope. Only those on here will know the difference. This will be a high impact event though given cold antecedent temps and cold temps during snow, much higher impact than 2 inches normally would be 

[wxdawg10]

9 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

I'd be shocked to see more than 3" anywhere in Wake.  Trust me, I'm pulling for it, but based on climatology and situations like this in the past, I agree with RAH's statement about the dry air this far back and the extent of the western precip shield.

I'm going 1-3" across Wake, with most areas 1-2".  Still a great snow!

what about climatology? there is no warm nose to contend with for this storm. What falls will stick.  wake is in spot where heavier rates are possible. get under a band and you can do 3 inches in 3 hours. If anything, i can see this busting higher.  So its definitely possible.  

[olafminesaw]

3 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I think RAH is spot on with their call. I don’t see Raleigh busting too much higher than the 2-3” forecast. With that even if we get 4” will it be a bust from impacts? Nope. Only those on here will know the difference. This will be a high impact event though given cold antecedent temps and cold temps during snow, much higher impact than 2 inches normally would be 

They've done a great job with this storm, given the hand they've been dealt.

[ForsythWx]

9 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

The hires NAM reflectivity map looks great, but the precip map shows zero in the Triad. Will be fascinating to see how this plays out.

Opposite problem - but NAM also had snow showers and precip staying in the triad all night yesterday and I’m pretty sure I saw snow for 10 minutes. I’m not picking up what it’s putting down anymore for now.