BornAgain13 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 1 minute ago, Beach Snow said: 6z euro ensemble shifting axis of heavier snow totals ever so slightly NW How does the Control run look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beach Snow Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: How does the Control run look? Control only goes out to 90 so after todays 12z run we should start getting into the off run time frames for the event. i don’t know enough about H5 looks to compare to previous runs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 1 minute ago, Beach Snow said: Control only goes out to 90 so after todays 12z run we should start getting into the off run time frames for the event. i don’t know enough about H5 looks to compare to previous runs Control goes out to 144... give me a second and I'll post it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 1 minute ago, yoda said: Thing of beauty. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beach Snow Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 2 minutes ago, yoda said: Control goes out to 144... give me a second and I'll post it Sorry i was referencing surface map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 3 minutes ago, Beach Snow said: Sorry i was referencing surface map As in QPF? Temps? Goes out to 144... let me know what you want and I'll post it ETA: Oh, you mean like the SLP track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beach Snow Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Pretty significant NW jump from 0z to 6z…. Going to need that to come back SE..Low looks to climb the coat vs slide ENE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 6z vs. 0z control for anyone wondering. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beach Snow Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Still a decent amount of southern solutions on the panels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 3 minutes ago, Beach Snow said: Pretty significant NW jump from 0z to 6z…. Going to need that to come back SE..Low looks to climb the coat vs slide ENE Yeah, the control did jump NW. But remember that's really just one member of the ensemble package. Any changes in the ensemble mean from 0z to 6z were quite negligible. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 12 minutes ago, yoda said: Wow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beach Snow Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 6 minutes ago, msuwx said: Yeah, the control did jump NW. But remember that's really just one member of the ensemble package. Any changes in the ensemble mean from 0z to 6z were quite negligible. Appreciate the insight i noticed that too on the ensembles and also the panels still a lot of southern solutions 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Now we wait on Mr. Torchy (midday GFS)Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 I don’t think it can be mentioned enough that the MEAN for the euro ensemble has temps in the teens on Saturday Morning with heavy snow the NW triangle and the Triad. 10 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 We won't get torchy but track dependent for zr/ip in the Triangle 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 To me, I think that the battle lines are set today. Going to use the Canadian from last night because it's a good example of our "dudes out on the field". The northern energy drops in from the plains. We want this energy to be stronger and nudging further to the SW; our dud runs are when this trough stays too positively tilted and just can't get anything to pop. The southern energy comes from Cali/Arizona and we want it to be quicker; our dud runs come when it's held back. It's a shame that we have to deal with this because Baja/Mexi lows have the predictability/reliability of orange cats (you know the type). So far it seems a host of solutions are on the table. The runs where the Zona shortwave is held back make this plains shortwave dominant and we just have to hope it is digging enough/strong enough to pop something. The runs where the Zona energy kinda mingles with our northern stuff (saw this with Canadian) will be murky. The end product would depend on how cute the models get with fluid dynamics but generally it looks like the trough would be large/south enough to bring some good moisture transport but positively tilted/sheared enough to cause ptype issues. 1.28.2014 is the obvious analog here. The runs where the Zona energy comes together in melodious harmony with our northern energy (yesterday's 12z Canadian) would be iconic southeast winter events. Famous last words here but the surface temps shouldn't be an issue with this cold press. 9 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 37 minutes ago, ILMRoss said: To me, I think that the battle lines are set today. Going to use the Canadian from last night because it's a good example of our "dudes out on the field". The northern energy drops in from the plains. We want this energy to be stronger and nudging further to the SW; our dud runs are when this trough stays too positively tilted and just can't get anything to pop. The southern energy comes from Cali/Arizona and we want it to be quicker; our dud runs come when it's held back. It's a shame that we have to deal with this because Baja/Mexi lows have the predictability/reliability of orange cats (you know the type). So far it seems a host of solutions are on the table. The runs where the Zona shortwave is held back make this plains shortwave dominant and we just have to hope it is digging enough/strong enough to pop something. The runs where the Zona energy kinda mingles with our northern stuff (saw this with Canadian) will be murky. The end product would depend on how cute the models get with fluid dynamics but generally it looks like the trough would be large/south enough to bring some good moisture transport but positively tilted/sheared enough to cause ptype issues. 1.28.2014 is the obvious analog here. The runs where the Zona energy comes together in melodious harmony with our northern energy (yesterday's 12z Canadian) would be iconic southeast winter events. Famous last words here but the surface temps shouldn't be an issue with this cold press. Thanks Ross. This is good knowledge to have. When it comes to Raleigh though for the upcoming storm what is looking like our culprit for mixing issues? Is it the low track with 850 warm nose this time? Goodness we have the cold setting in and would think it deeper/better press than this past weekend and we are not getting some crazy wind-up storm like just went through. This is overrunning more or less right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Considering how the GFS ensembles have a tendency not to vary too much from the op, it's encouraging to see a bunch of members with decent hits 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 tempted to start a sub-thread for the Raleigh-East crew. I don’t think we’re all rooting for the same thing. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 1 minute ago, StantonParkHoya said: tempted to start a sub-thread for the Raleigh-East crew. I don’t think we’re all rooting for the same thing. This is the pinned thread for this system. We all realize everyone wants different things to happen, but there only needs to be one discussion thread. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 1 minute ago, buckeyefan1 said: This is the pinned thread for this system. We all realize everyone wants different things to happen, but there only needs to be one discussion thread. I think people need to qualify statements like: “crush job”, “looks awesome”, etc. It’s really annoying when someone from Hickory or southern VA throws that out and it’s rain for the eastern half of the state. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 51 minutes ago, ILMRoss said: To me, I think that the battle lines are set today. Going to use the Canadian from last night because it's a good example of our "dudes out on the field". The northern energy drops in from the plains. We want this energy to be stronger and nudging further to the SW; our dud runs are when this trough stays too positively tilted and just can't get anything to pop. The southern energy comes from Cali/Arizona and we want it to be quicker; our dud runs come when it's held back. It's a shame that we have to deal with this because Baja/Mexi lows have the predictability/reliability of orange cats (you know the type). So far it seems a host of solutions are on the table. The runs where the Zona shortwave is held back make this plains shortwave dominant and we just have to hope it is digging enough/strong enough to pop something. The runs where the Zona energy kinda mingles with our northern stuff (saw this with Canadian) will be murky. The end product would depend on how cute the models get with fluid dynamics but generally it looks like the trough would be large/south enough to bring some good moisture transport but positively tilted/sheared enough to cause ptype issues. 1.28.2014 is the obvious analog here. The runs where the Zona energy comes together in melodious harmony with our northern energy (yesterday's 12z Canadian) would be iconic southeast winter events. Famous last words here but the surface temps shouldn't be an issue with this cold press. I legit spit my drink on the bolded Perfect analogy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 6 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: tempted to start a sub-thread for the Raleigh-East crew. I don’t think we’re all rooting for the same thing. I am just as salty as anyone right now after the miss with this last system but that will just be a mess if we try that I think. We can bitch and moan in the Sanitarium. They have a coffee mug there with my name on it. 6 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 1 minute ago, StantonParkHoya said: I think people need to qualify statements like: “crush job”, “looks awesome”, etc. It’s really annoying when someone from Hickory or southern VA throws that out and it’s rain for the eastern half of the state. I feel your pain and hope that everyone understands that these statements are imby dependent. There are a lot of us that do our best to cover everyone's backyard and if someone needs an explanation of why it isn't working out for them, we have the most awesome mets and hobbyists who can assist with their learning curve. Otherwise, the sanitarium is the place for being disgruntled, salty, excited, scared, and everything in between. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beach Snow Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 I’m a misfit being in SE VA between MA forum and SE forum. I’m a longtime lurker but new poster and i certainly try to post an image with context so it’s easily seen for the subject area. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 15 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: I think people need to qualify statements like: “crush job”, “looks awesome”, etc. It’s really annoying when someone from Hickory or southern VA throws that out and it’s rain for the eastern half of the state. While I agree… You have to know Where you live, you know how your Climo is and how you fair in certain events. Imo if you live East of I-95 you should always Go into it expecting your Climo to Fail you regardless of a what a computer says. Yesterday was a prime example of that yet Again those of us In Favored areas that normally do well with that setup did …. Those of us who don’t …. Didn’t. A computer is guidance and it’s important sure but overall in the end history normally repeats itself so there’s no need to be upset about it ect this would be like someone in Monroe being pissed they didn’t get 3-6” Yesterday while 60 miles NW in Iredell we did. I get the dissatisfaction being in CLT area trust me…. But it’s just life 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 34 minutes ago, CaryWx said: Thanks Ross. This is good knowledge to have. When it comes to Raleigh though for the upcoming storm what is looking like our culprit for mixing issues? Is it the low track with 850 warm nose this time? Goodness we have the cold setting in and would think it deeper/better press than this past weekend and we are not getting some crazy wind-up storm like just went through. This is overrunning more or less right? As of now yeah it's more or less overrunning. I'm sort of struggling with that "why does RDU have mixing issues in some runs" question. I'm settling on this: The "strung out, positively tilted" look is just generally no bueno for straight snow. I think there's likely some sort of destructive interference going on between the two waves that just kill them both and cause the general trough complex to slow and stall. If they stall, lower heights can never really press into the Carolinas and we're just simply left with warmer mid-level air. No crazy dynamics overamping stuff going on, we just would't be able to cool those mid levels sufficiently in that spot. I do think that the surface cold press is here to stay. Crazy cold air masses can and do undercut warmer mid level air, i mean, how do you think places like Missouri get ice storms? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 The icon looks good for a long duration moderate event for the climo favored regions of the central NC Piedmont (the Icon is trash I know, but better than discussing, well... not weather) 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beach Snow Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 3 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: The icon looks good for a long duration moderate event for the climo favored regions of the central NC Piedmont (the Icon is trash I know, but better than discussing, well... not weather) Icon didn’t do terrible for the past storm its been showing the signal over the last few days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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