nwohweather Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Definitely could see some accretion on Friday night here in Charleston, but it'll be so difficult with today's warm weather I think for things to get too dicey around here. If anything I think the "re-freeze" opportunities on Saturday night could create more challenges than the actual freezing rain event itself, inland temps around the Charleston metro will probably dip below 20! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 3 minutes ago, nwohweather said: Definitely could see some accretion on Friday night here in Charleston, but it'll be so difficult with today's warm weather I think for things to get too dicey around here. If anything I think the "re-freeze" opportunities on Saturday night could create more challenges than the actual freezing rain event itself, inland temps around the Charleston metro will probably dip below 20! Wondered about that. Imby, it was 64 yesterday and 68 today. Wondering how that affects things during the day tomorrow myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Oh snap! Greg Fishel just posted this on Facebook. I WILL POST NO LATER THAN 2:30, AND IT WILL BE THE MOST HONEST POST FROM ANY METEOROLOGIST YOU’VE EVER READ! 5 6 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 3 minutes ago, senc30 said: Wondered about that. Imby, it was 64 yesterday and 68 today. Wondering how that affects things during the day tomorrow myself. From my personal experience with freezing rain, it matters A LOT at ground level but not at all in the trees. To get ice to accumulate on the ground it generally needs to be in the 20’s and the freezing rain needs to be light. Overpasses are a different story Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Euro is not as good with phasing the vortmaxes compared to the 12z GFS run but it is close. Again that is the real key to this whole thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CobbGaGirl Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 NW suburbs of Atlanta…at 5:30am we were at 50 degrees, we have dropped to 36 degrees as of 12:30pm. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 NW suburbs of Atlanta…at 5:30am we were at 50 degrees, we have dropped to 36 degrees as of 12:30pm.Obs thread is upSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Looking at the maps, EURO had slight improvements over 6z, it passed the trend test Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 9 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said: Looking at the maps, EURO had slight improvements over 6z, it passed the trend test Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk As eyewall pointed out, it was much closer to phasing like some of the other models did. This was a good run in the correct direction 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 HRRR bringing in more precip tonight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Also saw sleet and rain/snow was being reported west of Winston-Salem. Yep, per mPingsSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 HRRR coming in wetterSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Can someone drop in Fishel's magic 2:30 tweet if it's out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Are there any similarities to Jan 2000 and this storm? I remember that storm showing little to nothing 48 hours before the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Ya'll please stay on topic. The tweet will be out when it's out. I'm sure it will be posted later. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunBlade Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 NAM so far looks similar but the southern energy looks a little stronger. See how that plays out shortly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunBlade Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Miniscule differences in this run for the NAM so far, doubt much will change for the remainder of the run compared to 12z. NAM definitely did not move closer to the GFS but it doesn't look to be any worse than it's last run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
27596WXNUT Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 27 minutes ago, CaryWx said: Can someone drop in Fishel's magic 2:30 tweet if it's out? Here is Fishel’s post on FB. SORRY I'M LATE. HERE WE GO! I want to discuss two concepts with you, so I hope you'll take the time to read this in its entirety. I'm going to discuss 2 things in a fair amount of detail. First, the atmosphere is an incredibly complex system. It can be simulated extremely well by a myriad of mathematical equations that mimic the laws of physics and thermodynamics. However, these equations do not provide exact solutions, and add to that the fact that models are very dependent on initial conditions. And no analysis of current conditions is perfect, because we don't have enough observations to make it perfect. So there is inherent error in model forecasts right from the start, and those errors only grow with time. A trained monkey can read a map! What I as a meteorologist try to do is look at the processes involved in a given weather event, and try to decide if the model output is consistent with those processes. I mentioned yesterday that the disturbance in the southern branch of the jet stream was weakening, and that the disturbance in the northern branch could very well be too far north to do us any good with regard to snow. My views on that haven't changed, even though the models are oscillating wildly as to how much, if any snow we will get. Now, concept #2 is instability. You usually only hear me talk about that when it comes to thunderstorms and tornadoes. But it's a much broader concept. Imagine a ball at the base of a valley. No matter how hard you push that ball up the hill, it's eventually gonna return to its original place. Now imagine a ball at the top of a mountain. You give it a shove and it accelerates down the hill and never returns to it's original location. There is something in meteorology called baroclinic instability. The word baroclinic refers to a zone of temperature contrast, which we clearly have with this front moving through today. The instability refers to a certain threshold that must be met for a low pressure area to form and intensify. What I feel is happening here is that one model run falls just short of that threshold, while the next barely exceeds it, and hence the differences in how far west the precipitation gets tomorrow afternoon and night. And frankly, I'm not smart enough to know which side of that threshold we will end up on. So all I know to do is give you the range of possibilities. I will not take credit for any outcome, as I have already admitted to you that my confidence level is very low. The best(worst) case scenario for snow lovers is 3-5 inches. The worst(best) case scenario for the Triangle is a Trace of snow tomorrow afternoon and night. The most likely solution in my mind is 1-3", but I am in no hurry to call my bookie in Vegas and put any money on it! I know this was a long read, and I hope at least some of it makes sense. I'm not gonna pretend to be confident when I'm not. That would be lying, and my parents brought me up better than to do that! As always, I will keep an eye on things and update as needed. Happy Thursday! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Has the NAM had two runs in a row that are the same yet? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Looks like the NAM might have more precip farther west this time. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 5 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: Looks like the NAM might have more precip farther west this time. Precip didn't really expand west on the 18z nam. There is more precip to the south. I would expect amounts in the RDU area to be close to 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunBlade Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 8 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: Looks like the NAM might have more precip farther west this time. It does (barely) but the northern wave is slightly faster and weaker this run compared to the last run. I wouldn't put much faith in that expansion west of moisture as it is not driven by the ull energy and will be hitting very dry air and is often overdone in modeling. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdawg10 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 15 minutes ago, 27596WXNUT said: Here is Fishel’s post on FB. SORRY I'M LATE. HERE WE GO! I want to discuss two concepts with you, so I hope you'll take the time to read this in its entirety. I'm going to discuss 2 things in a fair amount of detail. First, the atmosphere is an incredibly complex system. It can be simulated extremely well by a myriad of mathematical equations that mimic the laws of physics and thermodynamics. However, these equations do not provide exact solutions, and add to that the fact that models are very dependent on initial conditions. And no analysis of current conditions is perfect, because we don't have enough observations to make it perfect. So there is inherent error in model forecasts right from the start, and those errors only grow with time. A trained monkey can read a map! What I as a meteorologist try to do is look at the processes involved in a given weather event, and try to decide if the model output is consistent with those processes. I mentioned yesterday that the disturbance in the southern branch of the jet stream was weakening, and that the disturbance in the northern branch could very well be too far north to do us any good with regard to snow. My views on that haven't changed, even though the models are oscillating wildly as to how much, if any snow we will get. Now, concept #2 is instability. You usually only hear me talk about that when it comes to thunderstorms and tornadoes. But it's a much broader concept. Imagine a ball at the base of a valley. No matter how hard you push that ball up the hill, it's eventually gonna return to its original place. Now imagine a ball at the top of a mountain. You give it a shove and it accelerates down the hill and never returns to it's original location. There is something in meteorology called baroclinic instability. The word baroclinic refers to a zone of temperature contrast, which we clearly have with this front moving through today. The instability refers to a certain threshold that must be met for a low pressure area to form and intensify. What I feel is happening here is that one model run falls just short of that threshold, while the next barely exceeds it, and hence the differences in how far west the precipitation gets tomorrow afternoon and night. And frankly, I'm not smart enough to know which side of that threshold we will end up on. So all I know to do is give you the range of possibilities. I will not take credit for any outcome, as I have already admitted to you that my confidence level is very low. The best(worst) case scenario for snow lovers is 3-5 inches. The worst(best) case scenario for the Triangle is a Trace of snow tomorrow afternoon and night. The most likely solution in my mind is 1-3", but I am in no hurry to call my bookie in Vegas and put any money on it! I know this was a long read, and I hope at least some of it makes sense. I'm not gonna pretend to be confident when I'm not. That would be lying, and my parents brought me up better than to do that! As always, I will keep an eye on things and update as needed. Happy Thursday! Ole Gregg has been burned so many times on past storms he's become the snow grinch 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 1 hour ago, senc30 said: Wondered about that. Imby, it was 64 yesterday and 68 today. Wondering how that affects things during the day tomorrow myself. It will take longer for it to freeze on the roads and ground, but as soon as it drops below freezing it will start attaching to trees, fences, cars, and power lines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 10 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: Paywalled. Can you give the general idea? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alhooks13 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 2 minutes ago, eyewall said: Paywalled. Can you give the general idea? How did forecasts end up being so wrong? The flawed predictions can be traced to computer model errors and the inability of human forecasters to adequately account for them. When fronts come in from the north and west, models sometimes have a bias of drawing in cold air too quickly. Some of our biggest winter storm busts over the years have occurred when we’ve accepted model forecasts indicating temperatures would rapidly cool to near freezing with rain changing to snow. In short, we probably should have been more skeptical of the models. But we gave them considerable credence since they had done a good job with the other events this month. Notably, they nailed the Jan. 3 snow forecast the day after it was 63 degrees. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Lol every met having to eat crow and cover their tailsSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 NAM is really sticking to its guns on this one. It's really anyone's guess how this plays out. Will be a true nowcast situation. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midnight Moon Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 4 minutes ago, eyewall said: Paywalled. Can you give the general idea? Transition period was too slow compared to modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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