GunBlade Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 2 minutes ago, PantherJustin said: If it comes in weaker won’t that not suppress it and squash it as much? Ala NW Trends With a typical low yes. But this is more dependent on the northern and southern streams phasing, where that occurs, how much they dig etc... The big Ukie run a couple days ago went neutral/negative tilt right over the NC/TN/SC/GA borders and then closed off even near the coast the next frame. The most recent GFS run for instance is still positively tilted and centered in the piedmont of NC. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 2 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: CMC coming west. But not as wet for your backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Elizabeth City gets smoked no matter what model you look at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunBlade Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Canadian made a big step towards the GFS with the H5 looking very similar compared to the prior Canadian run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 9 minutes ago, GunBlade said: With a typical low yes. But this is more dependent on the northern and southern streams phasing, where that occurs, how much they dig etc... The big Ukie run a couple days ago went neutral/negative tilt right over the NC/TN/SC/GA borders and then closed off even near the coast the next frame. The most recent GFS run for instance is still positively tilted and centered in the piedmont of NC. Yea and it's gonna be tough to get that negative tilt now. Though with the delayed cold front that could slow down that northern energy which you would think would help it phase more. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 5 minutes ago, burgertime said: But not as wet for your backyard. Looks good to me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 All I am going to say is no matter what falls there is a major black ice concern Saturday and Sunday morning Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Well, this escalated quickly 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Yea and it's gonna be tough to get that negative tilt now. Though with the delayed cold front that could slow down that northern energy wish you would think would help it phase more. it would, the slower front would force it back SW so we actually need the delaySent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 2 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Well, this escalated quickly Happy for you guys … but selfishly wishing for about 50-75 miles More 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 2 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said: it would, the slower front would force it back SW so we actually need the delay Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Problem is you're working against the clock in the southeast. 12z was def an eyebrow raiser though. Each tick slower, better phasing brings better results and given the setup it screams that this should be better so nothing wrong with wishing on that star haha. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 5 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: Looks good to me. Translation...I looked at the snow maps others have posted 8 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 23 minutes ago, Beach Snow said: From DT on twitter. As much as i don’t like him he has a point. Wonder if this will cause implications for the Friday event? Isn't the HRRR pretty notorious for this? Looking at global model runs it doesn't look like that cold front is delayed really. Haven't really looked at real time data though. That will say one way or another. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 1 minute ago, burgertime said: Isn't the HRRR pretty notorious for this? Looking at global model runs it doesn't look like that cold front is delayed really. Haven't really looked at real time data though. That will say one way or another. I was going to say… it’s like the only one that had the rapid snow transition down to Richmond. Everything else looks about right 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 I made an Obs thread for the FROPA and main even btw, so those with the front passage can go ahead and start posting their IBY conditionsSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Wake and Durham County schools closed tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 UK looks better, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 3 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: I was going to say… it’s like the only one that had the rapid snow transition down to Richmond. Everything else looks about right Hmmm... this was the 00z run from last night. So maybe he's on to something here. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said: UK looks better, too. I'm assuming it doesn't separate snow, ZR, Sleet, etc because no way I get close to 3 inches of snow when they are staying .25-.5 of ice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Does anyone have time to post a link to the best site for nowcasting? Someone posted SPC mesoscale but honestly I’m still learning and don’t know exactly what I’m looking for. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 14 minutes ago, burgertime said: Hmmm... this was the 00z run from last night. So maybe he's on to something here. Later than modeled, yes. But the temps are starting to dive quickly coming through middle VA and down into the foothills areas. It's coming. Even my local point and click here in the Triad didn't have us flipping to snow until this evening (if we get any snow). EDIT - GFS looks pretty much exactly like what is happening over the next 6 hours or so to me. Would be all snow across the northern tier of NC by 7pm assuming we have any precip left. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 5 minutes ago, Grayman said: Does anyone have time to post a link to the best site for nowcasting? Someone posted SPC mesoscale but honestly I’m still learning and don’t know exactly what I’m looking for. Thanks https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ARyan Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 12 minutes ago, Grayman said: Does anyone have time to post a link to the best site for nowcasting? Someone posted SPC mesoscale but honestly I’m still learning and don’t know exactly what I’m looking for. Thanks weather.cod.edu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beach Snow Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 This was the Ukie btwSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 3 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said: This was the Ukie btw Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Must include sleet, zr in snow totals 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Euro still one of the more east models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 EURO holds serve, still a bit on the eastern edge. Good snows through coastal plain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Euro still a step in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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