Cheeznado Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 This was a very difficult forecast. It can be said that the Euro was a massive bust and the GEFS, while still overdone, was a much better indication that there was a pretty decent chance of it underperforming. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 HRRR further back SW through 25 compared to 6z...Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WolfCraig Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justicebork Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 7 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said: HRRR further back SW through 25 compared to 6z... Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk It looks better at the surface. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 I think RDU ends up with 3 to 5 inches. Ne NC and SE VA is the 6-8 range. Fayetteville with 1-2 inches. This is only snow totals. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Also, NAM looks different. Not sure if good or bad. NAM expanded the precip shield much further NW. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justicebork Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Trying to find changes in the northern energy is like trying to find the train to Hogwarts. You can convince yourself that its there if you really try. It does looks better at the surface through 18z tomorrow, so maybe there's hope. I mean, there's some precip back towards the triangle. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Def favorable trends in most models over the last cycle or 2. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 NAM getting back in the game!!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 At this point, which models have had the least run to run volatility? That’s what I would pay attention to. I’m looking at you, RGEM/CMC and GFS/EURO to an extent. Blend those and I believe you have your answer here. NAM has been all over the place and I do not trust any other short range CAM inside of 12 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said: At this point, which models have had the least run to run volatility? That’s what I would pay attention to. I’m looking at you, RGEM/CMC and GFS/EURO to an extent. Blend those and I believe you have your answer here. NAM has been all over the place and I do not trust any other short range CAM inside of 12 hours RGEM has been really consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 NAM was a GREAT run for I-95 and was almost back to the Triangle! That’s a massive improvement across the board EDIT: It snows to Raleigh/Henderson line 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said: NAM was a GREAT run for I-95 and was almost back to the Triangle! That’s a massive improvement across the board Looks more amplified to me but LP further east than 06z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Big Changes with the NAM at 6z Saturday.....looks like most morning model runs have started the NW job.....lets see if it continues through the 12z runs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 8 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: Def favorable trends in most models over the last cycle or 2. Is it slowing down or speeding up in your opinion or about same pace? I do see the larger precip fields and denser moisture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 1 minute ago, CaryWx said: Looks more amplified to me but LP further east than 06z? Nope, way slower, much further west. Way more amped too. 06z had it well off of Virginia Beach 12z has it sitting off hatteras and wayyy closer and I’m not just talking about the red L Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJsnow89 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Maps would help please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justicebork Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 6z Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justicebork Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 3km is light years better as well 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VABILLUPS1 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Welcome back NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Maps would help please NW trendSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Well well well, we may be approaching a little model consensus at 0 hour??? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Yep, looks like models are moving towards the RGEM model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 what time does the RGEM 12z begin to run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 How much NW movement needs to happen to get out of the ice on the coast? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justicebork Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 FV3 improved dramatically as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 10 minutes ago, senc30 said: How much NW movement needs to happen to get out of the ice on the coast? Lol Not happening.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 5 minutes ago, Justicebork said: FV3 improved dramatically as well. The dam has burst and the NW trend has hit 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
85snowline Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Ashland VA...Just N or Richmond is seeing a change to snow and still 39* there. No doubt it is super cold aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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