eyewall Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beach Snow Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 7 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said: I'm just going to throw this out there (cause every run counts at this point) the energy ticked a hair SW on the latest HRRR compared to the same time on 6z run... Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Can you post 500 vort comparison? I don’t see where it ticked SW. Toggling between current run and 6z looks like it’s further east by a hair compared to 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Can you post 500 vort comparison? I don’t see where it ticked SW. Toggling between current run and 6z looks like it’s further east by a hair compared to 6zIt is very subtle, axis looked like it ticked slightly west to my eyeSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 So the globals are on board with a good winter storm here and the NAM and HRRR have hardly anything. This is crazy. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 So the globals are on board with a good winter storm here and the NAM and HRRR have hardly anything. This is crazy. Has there every been a case like this in recent memory?Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beach Snow Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 10 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: So the globals are on board with a good winter storm here and the NAM and HRRR have hardly anything. This is crazy. I feel like we would all be way more comfortable and confident if it was the opposite 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 GFS/ICON/CMC/RGEM all show a significant winter storm for central NC. EURO has it too but it’s a little further east. NAM/HRRR/ and a selection of CAMs have nothing. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beach Snow Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Also i don’t think the HRR performance is all that great past it’s normal run. Will be very telling as we get closer within each of its 18hr runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 1 minute ago, Beach Snow said: I feel like we would all be way more comfortable and confident if it was the opposite I like having the RGEM in our wheelhouse. It’s been very consistent with this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Can someone post the last euro and eps snow maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 2 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: Can someone post the last euro and eps snow maps This is 0z, but 6z is currently running. Don't have access to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Can someone post the last euro and eps snow maps0z EPS, 6z EURO came in drier as you can seeSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 3 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said: 0z EPS, 6z EURO came in drier as you can see Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Got the Kuchera for the 6z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 3 minutes ago, wake4est said: Got the Kuchera for the 6z? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 1 minute ago, ncskywarn said: Looks very RGEMish 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Was hoping the Euro would hold serve and not go the wrong way. Not a good sign. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 This may get deleted and if so, I understand but y'all are smarter then me by a lot so I'm going to ask. How difficult would it be for my area, Jacksonville, to actually get .25-.5 of ice? As someone in their late 30's, I don't ever remember such a think happening down this way. Maybe I'm just trying to convince myself that it's not going to be that much! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Hoping for a decent event in Jacksonville where my oldest daughter lives. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 9 minutes ago, Regan said: Hope at least the Euro is right with somewhere in between. 3 to 4 inches would be a big win now after all this mess with the models yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 13 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: Was hoping the Euro would hold serve and not go the wrong way. Not a good sign. It did hold serve 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said: It did hold serve Looked like it decreased totals from yesterday's afternoon run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said: Looked like it decreased totals from yesterday's afternoon run. The next post you make had better be on topic and not banter or you will be banned to the sanitarium on a permanent basis. I woke up to a ton of reports that were all your posts. Choose your posts wisely. 8 11 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Listen up peeps! I tried catching up on this thread and now my eyeballs are crossed and my head has exploded. Keep the banter where it belongs. 10 2 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 20 minutes ago, senc30 said: This may get deleted and if so, I understand but y'all are smarter then me by a lot so I'm going to ask. How difficult would it be for my area, Jacksonville, to actually get .25-.5 of ice? As someone in their late 30's, I don't ever remember such a think happening down this way. Maybe I'm just trying to convince myself that it's not going to be that much! Now cast thing.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 One thing I’ve noticed on a lot of the modeling is to slow down the frontal passage (100% believe this). What this allows for is the changeover to snow to occur for a longer duration for the Northern piedmont areas. It also looks like one of those shortwaves tries to inject a little energy at this time as well. We kinda looked past this first round yesterday, but it may really have the potential for areas west of 95 to be the main event. Some modeling is showing a 1-3 inch snow with this. The RAP and the GFS both have trended this way specifically. Something to watch but I can tell you if I got a 1-3” snow I don’t care what happens in the afternoon that would just be gravy 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 1 hour ago, eyewall said: Need to see this slow down just a little bit more, the 6Z GFS spitting out insane ratios for PGV....we get 3" in 3 hrs with .11" QPF....just a few more hrs of that and we would be golden.... assuming of course the GFS has this right....the GFS is so close to this being a much bigger deal. 220122/0500Z 47 36011KT 24.0F SNOW 19:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.057 10:1| 3.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.37 100| 0| 0 220122/0600Z 48 36010KT 23.8F SNOW 23:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.061 12:1| 5.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.43 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 220122/0700Z 49 36012KT 23.6F SNOW 13:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.053 12:1| 5.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.48 100| 0| 0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunBlade Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 As mentioned a lot, how the upper level energy is handled is what will make or break this for many. There may be a better resource for this but below is the SPC current data to view the 500mb energy. As several mentioned nowcasting, it becomes as much about monitoring current conditions compared to model predictions and subsequent model runs. Tiny differences in this energy has big implications. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=19&parm=pmsl# 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Before this begins, whatever way this breaks, just want to thank the Mets on here for posting and helping us amateurs interpret a challenging setup. This is one well look back on for sure as one of the more complex winter storms in terms of late development and lack of consistent model support all the way through to 0 hour. I love the conversation on this board and appreciate the insight from those posters who know much more about our atmosphere than I ever will. Now let’s reel this one in for someone! 12 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Ill go with the following HKY: T-1" CLT: T-2" GSO: 1-3" RDU: 3-5" ORF: 6-10" 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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