ncskywarn Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 12 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Yeah the HRRR looks nothing like the Euro. Precip way east and off shore... Someone on Southern Weather said that the HRRR uses the same algorithm that the RAP uses. So that really is not unexpected or surprising. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rawlee Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 6 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: They also said: Wednesday 8 p.m. update: New model runs mean more could see precipitation Going to assume they mean east of 95 since the low is farther out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mclean02 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Carolina weather group is having a live chat with few meteorologist from around the Carolinas impressive honestly on such a busy night lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 NAM finally bucked the trend this run aloft. I think the east shifts may be over. We shall see. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Nam drier through 34Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 The key is to get this s/w to trend/dig back southwest. Notice tonight's 0z stopped the trend eastward. We're just running out of time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 The key is to get this s/w to trend/dig back southwest. Notice tonight's 0z stopped the trend eastward. We're just running out of time. We still got timeSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 If this ends up not snowing west of 95 the global models need to be put out to pasture. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 If this ends up not snowing west of 95 the global models need to be put out to pasture. Not really, there were 4 SW's for the models to have to pick and chose from, it made it hardSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Quite the storm for coastal folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Suppressed : HRRRNW trend: 18z EURO, 0z NAMSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Pessimistic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Its pretty much over. Back to square one and wait for the next one 5 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 00 NAM map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coralreefer Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 2 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: If this ends up not snowing west of 95 the global models need to be put out to pasture. Your juvenile rants get old. I love your enthusiasm when things are going well on the maps. There were 2 phases of energy trying to converge and it just never materialized. I live in the Pee Dee River valley between CLT and Pinehurst. A total of 4in of snow in 21 yrs. My sister in Houston has had almost twice as much snow as me. Reading these maps and listening to the great knowledge on this board trying to decipher the data is awesome. Some of your posts take the fun out of it. 12 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Just now, PackGrad05 said: 00 NAM map? 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Well the NAM has trended west over the last 2 runs. Euro looked good. ICON looked good. This isn't over. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 From Kat Campbell at WRAL: WHAT. A. NIGHT. Starting today at 4 PM we mentioned what was new was a slight shift east in the models. This was good news for most because it meant more snow and less ice but it would lower totals in our western counties. That trend has continued but in a more dramatic fashion this evening. The American and high resolution models shifted the low pressure far enough east to cut areas near Raleigh north and west entirely out of the winter storm on Friday (though still wintry precipitation with some accumulation Thursday evening and night). The European model and its ensembles does not do this and holds on to our original thinking. It's important that we start addressing these major changes and trends tonight but we aren't tanking snowfall to 0 yet for the following reasons: -The European model has been doing far better with this system since day 1 and the ensembles didn't budge either -This dramatic change happened on the mid-runs of models which do not feed as much data into them (no weather balloons) as the main runs...if this trend continues overnight on those then it more concerning -We will still see impactful winter weather and accumulations on Thursday night (including the Triangle) and parts of our viewing area will still see a major winter storm Friday -Models have a track record of shifting lows NW as we get closer to the events during the winter months 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
85snowline Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 6 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: Well the NAM has trended west over the last 2 runs. Euro looked good. ICON looked good. This isn't over. Thank you voice of reason!! Too much juice for this to disappear... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Viva La Canadiens! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 RGEM holds serve, maybe even a tick NW.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Viva das Deutschland! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 So the ICON and RGEM say this ain't over... let's see what the GFS says... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 5 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: From Kat Campbell at WRAL: WHAT. A. NIGHT. Starting today at 4 PM we mentioned what was new was a slight shift east in the models. This was good news for most because it meant more snow and less ice but it would lower totals in our western counties. That trend has continued but in a more dramatic fashion this evening. The American and high resolution models shifted the low pressure far enough east to cut areas near Raleigh north and west entirely out of the winter storm on Friday (though still wintry precipitation with some accumulation Thursday evening and night). The European model and its ensembles does not do this and holds on to our original thinking. It's important that we start addressing these major changes and trends tonight but we aren't tanking snowfall to 0 yet for the following reasons: -The European model has been doing far better with this system since day 1 and the ensembles didn't budge either -This dramatic change happened on the mid-runs of models which do not feed as much data into them (no weather balloons) as the main runs...if this trend continues overnight on those then it more concerning -We will still see impactful winter weather and accumulations on Thursday night (including the Triangle) and parts of our viewing area will still see a major winter storm Friday -Models have a track record of shifting lows NW as we get closer to the events during the winter months Major winter storm in the Triangle? What is she looking at? Maybe for Elizabeth City. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 20 minutes ago, coralreefer said: Your juvenile rants get old. I love your enthusiasm when things are going well on the maps. There were 2 phases of energy trying to converge and it just never materialized. I live in the Pee Dee River valley between CLT and Pinehurst. A total of 4in of snow in 21 yrs. My sister in Houston has had almost twice as much snow as me. Reading these maps and listening to the great knowledge on this board trying to decipher the data is awesome. Some of your posts take the fun out of it. The models being awful 48 hours out and making such a dramatic change in 12 hours takes the fun out of it. I guess you're not a aports fan and never vent about your teams when they suck, too. But maybe the Euro is right. That would be great. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drummer Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Just now, Avdave said: Major winter storm in the Triangle? What is she looking at? Maybe for Elizabeth City. Carova, IMO. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 We’re back!!!!! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midnight Moon Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 9 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: From Kat Campbell at WRAL: It's important that we start addressing these major changes and trends tonight but we aren't tanking snowfall to 0 yet for the following reasons: -The European model has been doing far better with this system since day 1 and the ensembles didn't budge either -This dramatic change happened on the mid-runs of models which do not feed as much data into them (no weather balloons) as the main runs...if this trend continues overnight on those then it more concerning -We will still see impactful winter weather and accumulations on Thursday night (including the Triangle) and parts of our viewing area will still see a major winter storm Friday -Models have a track record of shifting lows NW as we get closer to the events during the winter months I did not know this. So why so much angst? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 2 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: The models being awful 48 hours out and making such a dramatic change in 12 hours takes the fun out of it. I guess you're not a aports fan and never vent about your teams when they suck, too. You have been this way for a long time here. Its just weather. If it happens good, if it doesnt, life goes on. Get a grip on reality 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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