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January 20-22 “bring the mojo” winter storm threat


lilj4425
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I gotta say, I'm flummoxed.  I thought the other day that this was going to vanish but by last night I was ready to say that I was totally wrong.  And, then, poof, it was gone.  We all have seen storms disappear but this close to the starting gate...?  If indeed nothing happens, it would be a first for me.

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Just now, goldman75 said:

Here in Myrtle beach I’ll take that all day long over all freezing rain!

Yea this isn't a bad look and hopefully you can cash in. In fact I think for most of NC it wouldn't be too bad either. As @NorthHillsWx said this would be very powdery snow so snow ratios wouldn't be great but for most what falls would stick. 

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1 minute ago, VABILLUPS1 said:

I'm stunned - I have no idea what's going to  happen. NAM-GFS are out, ICON/RGEM holding steady. I'll just wait and see at this point. 

I am not sure that having those two in your camp vs GFS/NAM is a great position to be in, I feel your pain

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8 minutes ago, VABILLUPS1 said:

I'm stunned - I have no idea what's going to  happen. NAM-GFS are out, ICON/RGEM holding steady. I'll just wait and see at this point. 

It's almost like we need a quantum computer or something to sort this out for us.  Anybody ever thought about that?  Brick?  Burger? Anyone?  :whistle:

:lol:  

I think this might be the week we all realize we still live in the southeast.  Happens every year.  

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17 minutes ago, VABILLUPS1 said:

I'm stunned - I have no idea what's going to  happen. NAM-GFS are out, ICON/RGEM holding steady. I'll just wait and see at this point. 

When it comes to winter weather in the South you just have to adopt a “we’ll see what happens” approach every single time. It helps clamp down on the disappointment. 

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11 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

WRAL first call map has wake county 3-5 inches.   Mike maze said he may shift it southeast a little after looking at new data.   

Everyone in Raleigh needs to chill…. These models are way off. We all know by Tomm night it will be right back how it was…. It will change 9x more every run of (model suites) it wouldn’t surprise me if all of them lose it then start creeping back by 06z runs Tomm …. This happens every storm we have a day of crap runs then it ends up just fine or some result not even shown like last weeks HRR …. Stop trusting Computers they have ZERO clue …. Ppl need to go back to looking at Fronts ect on paper and stop trusting computers 

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13 minutes ago, PantherJustin said:

Everyone in Raleigh needs to chill…. These models are way off. We all know by Tomm night it will be right back how it was…. It will change 9x more every run of (model suites) it wouldn’t surprise me if all of them lose it then start creeping back by 06z runs Tomm …. This happens every storm we have a day of crap runs then it ends up just fine or some result not even shown like last weeks HRR …. Stop trusting Computers they have ZERO clue …. Ppl need to go back to looking at Fronts ect on paper and stop trusting computers 

Please tell me you're being a bit facetious here 

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33 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

RDU SREF plumes roughly 1-2"

WRAL's Futurecast still shows a lot of QPF on Friday...
Kat Campbell did just acknowledge they are shifting their map EAST later tonight after looking at new data.  

Yep the walk down begins. This is not a good night.

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52 minutes ago, PantherJustin said:

Everyone in Raleigh needs to chill…. These models are way off. We all know by Tomm night it will be right back how it was…. It will change 9x more every run of (model suites) it wouldn’t surprise me if all of them lose it then start creeping back by 06z runs Tomm …. This happens every storm we have a day of crap runs then it ends up just fine or some result not even shown like last weeks HRR …. Stop trusting Computers they have ZERO clue …. Ppl need to go back to looking at Fronts ect on paper and stop trusting computers 

With 48 hours to go? We'll see.

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35 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

RDU SREF plumes roughly 1-2"

WRAL's Futurecast still shows a lot of QPF on Friday...
Kat Campbell did just acknowledge they are shifting their map EAST later tonight after looking at new data.  

The models didn't start to go to crap until they started hyping the 3 to 5 inches today. Poor timing.

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