PackGrad05 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Who is DT and where is his page? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 3 minutes ago, yotaman said: Latest GFS looks much better for us. Less icing, more snow. Who is us? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 3 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: Who is DT and where is his page? https://dtwxrisk.medium.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 I do have to say that I am truly shocked and stunned as a professional meteorologist to see such a violent shift in the weather models from 11pm/12am Tuesday night Wednesday morning to the data this morning and at midday. I have been doing this for more than 25 years and I have to tell you that this shift is dramatic and quite sudden. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
27596WXNUT Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 3 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: Who is DT and where is his page? WxRiskupallnight on Twitter. He’s around Richmond. Interesting guy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: https://dtwxrisk.medium.com/ Also in twitter. He is actually a pretty good met in Richmond area (just ask him), but also a first class jerk. Does a pretty good job of explaining his reasoning but don't dare disagree with him or he'll call you names like a 7 year old https://twitter.com/WxriskUpAllNite 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 5 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: I do have to say that I am truly shocked and stunned as a professional meteorologist to see such a violent shift in the weather models from 11pm/12am Tuesday night Wednesday morning to the data this morning and at midday. I have been doing this for more than 25 years and I have to tell you that this shift is dramatic and quite sudden. Glad I'm not the only one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 HRRR gives us some hope. Hope the NAM goes back west with the precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 9 minutes ago, senc30 said: Who is us? Eastern/southeastern NC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Lol, 18z NAM coming in with a good punch of snow with the front in southern VA... vastly different from 12z. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 2 minutes ago, yotaman said: Eastern/southeastern NC. New Bern may actually be in a great spot. I feel like you are sneaky good at catching snows that way. Been several “last second” snows there that showed up in this range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
85snowline Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Isn't this typical last minute "disco" (I believe that's what y'all refer to it as) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 9 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: I do have to say that I am truly shocked and stunned as a professional meteorologist to see such a violent shift in the weather models from 11pm/12am Tuesday night Wednesday morning to the data this morning and at midday. I have been doing this for more than 25 years and I have to tell you that this shift is dramatic and quite sudden. I wasn't so much shocked because, in my personal experience, this is playing out as expected. Phasing of the northern and southern stream is not well handled. When a cold front pushes through and stalls, in this case, it is hard for anyone west of 77 to get anything from this system without a strong coastal low. Eastern NC, especially NE NC is the place to be. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 18z NAM a little slower and beefier with QPF from the fropa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlh Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said: 18z NAM a little slower and beefier with QPF from the fropa Just noticed that as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 2 minutes ago, WxJordan said: I wasn't so much shocked because, in my personal experience, this is playing out as expected. Phasing of the northern and southern stream is not well handled. When a cold front pushes through and stalls, in this case, it is hard for anyone west of 77 to get anything from this system without a strong coastal low. Eastern NC, especially NE NC is the place to be. Yeah, but the models started cutting totals drastically even from Raleigh east from just last night and early this morning to midday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 The 18z NAM just gave mby 1-2" with the front. I'll take that and run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Just now, BornAgain13 said: The 18z NAM just gave mby 1-2" with the front. I'll take that and run... I reserve the right to be suspicious about that frontal passage snow as shown haha 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 4 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: Yeah, but the models started cutting totals drastically even from Raleigh east from just last night and early this morning to midday. The NWS blend has been relatively consistent... If anything the major change has been to push the storm further east away from the Mountains, which makes sense. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Also shows the possibility of minor frozen precip in Wake by 9PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: The 18z NAM just gave mby 1-2" with the front. I'll take that and run... HRRR was trying to do that, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 RAH is holding URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Raleigh NC 313 PM EST Wed Jan 19 2022 NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>077-083-200930- /O.CON.KRAH.WS.A.0002.220121T0000Z-220122T1200Z/ Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance- Orange-Durham-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham- Wake-Johnston-Wilson-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Anson- Including the cities of Roxboro, Oxford, Creedmoor, Henderson, Kittrell, Warrenton, Norlina, Roanoke Rapids, Enfield, Scotland Neck, Winston-Salem, Greensboro, High Point, Burlington, Graham, Mebane, Hillsborough, Chapel Hill, Carrboro, Durham, Rougemont, Louisburg, Franklinton, Nashville, Spring Hope, Rocky Mount, Tarboro, Princeville, Lexington, Thomasville, Asheboro, Archdale, Siler City, Pittsboro, Raleigh, Cary, Apex, Wake Forest, Knightdale, Smithfield, Selma, Clayton, Wilson, Albemarle, Troy, Southern Pines, Pinehurst, Aberdeen, Carthage, Sanford, Lillington, Angier, Buies Creek, Erwin, Dunn, Wadesboro, and Polkton 313 PM EST Wed Jan 19 2022 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Snow. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 5 inches. In addition, ice accumulations of a light glaze possible. * WHERE...Portions of central North Carolina. * WHEN...From Thursday evening through Saturday morning. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 27 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: Who is DT and where is his page? A “Moms Basement Met” He’s basically a 2yr old with computer access 4 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Cant tell you how many times I've seen a NW trend even inside 24 hours...Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 1 minute ago, PantherJustin said: A “Moms Basement Met” He’s basically a 2yr old with computer access He’s got an enjoyable website and social media pages, I’ll give him that. I enjoy the rare Richmond perspective too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btownheel Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said: I guess everyone is banking on more expansive precip shield. Interesting They are riding the climo NW historical trend, which has about a 99% verification rate. This fella could be the 1 out of 100....but.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Interesting storm here. Hope ENC can cash in. One thing to remember for folks further west is a lot of times the precip field tends to expand a bit more than expected. Always tough though when there just isn't a ton of moisture to work with. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Looks like the NAM is keeping the precip even further east this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 1 minute ago, Sandstorm94 said: Cant tell you how many times I've seen a NW trend even inside 24 hours... Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk NW trend gets tough with that confluence to the north though. Do think precip spreads further NW than shown on models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 NAM says bye bye storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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