StantonParkHoya Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 We as a society need to tackle this. Inexcusable. We can have a robot play catch with a tennis ball on Mars, but can't determine if it will snow in Roxboro. 2 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Just now, StantonParkHoya said: We as a society need to tackle this. Inexcusable. We can have a robot play catch with a tennis ball on Mars, but can't determine if it will snow in Roxboro. But then that takes the fun out of things. Let the robots play catch and let there be some mystery to the weather. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 At this point I'm looking at high-res short-term models anyway. NAM 3K and 12K look great. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wakegrrl Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 8 minutes ago, kgar2121 said: Professional lurker here (10 posts in 12 years, I just enjoy reading the insightful posts), and was wondering if we have a "mute" option that we could turn on. You know, where the same broken record keeps posting, you can mute them from your own personal view, not the entire board. Have seen that option on other message boards, and I think it would be most useful here. Ok, I'm finished posting... until next year or the year after Hi from another long-time lurker! You can ignore a poster - upper right-hand corner, click the down arrow next to your username, choose Ignored Users. Add the person's username. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 2 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: At this point I'm looking at high-res short-term models anyway. NAM 3K and 12K look great. Trends I will admit do not look good, but there can always be surprises at nowcast time. I'm pretty skeptical for us back here in the western piedmont, but anywhere east of Burlington I would not give up. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 I am not sure how much of a look he gave the 12z Euro and the overall trend but: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Allan's current forecast is completely reasonable based on the data. You don't make changes to your forecast after each little run. You look at the overall details of each model and watch for trends and you use what you know about meteorology to determine the forecast. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 1 minute ago, eyewall said: I am not sure how much of a look he gave the 12z Euro and the overall trend but: I'll take 3 to 5 inches of snow. But man seeing the models go so far south today just 48 hours out is a real buzzkill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 3 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: Allan's current forecast is completely reasonable based on the data. You don't make changes to your forecast after each little run. You look at the overall details of each model and watch for trends and you use what you know about meteorology to determine the forecast. Of course you can't just take the models on their own and make a forecast, but there is certainly an established trend here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris624wx Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 6 minutes ago, eyewall said: I am not sure how much of a look he gave the 12z Euro and the overall trend but: Will take my AA and cash out on the season! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 4 minutes ago, eyewall said: Of course you can't just take the models on their own and make a forecast, but there is certainly an established trend here. If the 18Z runs continue the trend, I'm sure we will see totals bumped down 1-2 inches... but the overall bullseye doesn't change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 All the established mets have probably been bit by the NW trend so many times that they're pricing that into all forecasts going forward. They're betting that later guidance will wind-shield wiper back to more qpf-rich solutions, which is reasonable. How about let's get the 3km NAM past 00z Saturday before we really start cliff diving. 10 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlh Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 35 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: I see the models trending back to more moisture this evening and overnight. Book it. This actually wouldn't surprise me one bit. Early Jan '17 storm did the same thing for Hampton Roads. Was supposed to be a light to moderate event, if my memory serves me right we were even calling ~2-4 inches in the Navy weather office ~24 hours out with models having gone back and forth with moisture. The morning of the event the models flipped to more moisture and Norfolk ended up with 9 inches (more in spots). Ain't over till its over. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 2 minutes ago, ILMRoss said: All the established mets have probably been bit by the NW trend so many times that they're pricing that into all forecasts going forward. They're betting that later guidance will wind-shield wiper back to more qpf-rich solutions, which is reasonable. How about let's get the 3km NAM past 00z Saturday before we really start cliff diving. And The model GOAT …. HRRR …. It was on an island of its own when Burrel started pumping it last Sat eve And it scored may as well give it a shot in our what have you done lately era 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 4 minutes ago, PantherJustin said: And The model GOAT …. HRRR …. It was on an island of its own when Burrel started pumping it last Sat eve And it scored may as well give it a shot in our what have you done lately era Burrel literally pumped it into reality 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 19, 2022 Author Share Posted January 19, 2022 Just now, NorthHillsWx said: Burrel literally pumped it into reality I think he should start the next thread. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alhooks13 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 This is a thing of beauty for me. I'm on the OBX in Kitty Hawk and each run is getting better and better. I'm a long-time lurker and rarely post. I'm not a Met and not as big a hobbyist as most of you are. I'm just a lowly CPA. I've lived in NC all of my life and am 55 so I've seen a fair number of storms. My anecdotal experience is that these storms rarely pan out as modeled outside of 24-48 hrs. The models aren't perfect! You all know that and then act like it is some big surprise when the models show a shift. Then there are some on here, especially the IMBYers, that bitch and moan when the model shifts the axis of precipitation by 25 or 50 miles. In my way of thinking, that's not a big shift. A storm is hundreds of miles from here, being sampled numerous times a day and if it shifts from your backyard, you proclaim the models suck. I'm not sure we'll ever see in our lifetimes where a weather model can consistently and accurately predict the exact track, the exact precip type and exact amounts of precip. Yet it seems to me that is what some of you expect and demand. The models are Lucy and some of you are Charlie Brown. Let's take a step back from the IMBYism that is too prevalent with some posters and look at the overall bigger picture. The models were showing a week ago a significant winter event for our area, with snow generally in the central part of the state and ice in the eastern part. As of now, it seems like that is generally going to happen though it may be further east and north of what was initially shown. To me, that's a pretty big win even if the track is off 100 miles or so and the precip is 50% of what was modeled. Sorry for my rant but the attitudes and expectations of some of you are completely unreasonable in my humble opinion. I'll return to lurking now. 11 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 5 minutes ago, PantherJustin said: And The model GOAT …. HRRR …. It was on an island of its own when Burrel started pumping it last Sat eve And it scored may as well give it a shot in our what have you done lately era Yeah, I typically like trying to have the memory of a goldfish when assessing models but I understand some upstate folks really cashed out on that last storm. Upstate folks: some detail/context on what models were good, what models sucked, etc for that situation would be greatly appreciated if you can provide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshWeather Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 8 minutes ago, jlh said: This actually wouldn't surprise me one bit. Early Jan '17 storm did the same thing for Hampton Roads. Was supposed to be a light to moderate event, if my memory serves me right we were even calling ~2-4 inches in the Navy weather office ~24 hours out with models having gone back and forth with moisture. The morning of the event the models flipped to more moisture and Norfolk ended up with 9 inches (more in spots). Ain't over till its over. Yep, its why i don't give up but also don't get too overhyped with these events anymore. Heck, just last weekend i was supposed to get close to an inch of freezing rain with a dusting to an inch of snow/sleet. Ended up getting around 3 inches of snow/sleet and just a very brief glaze of freezing rain. Won't really know what its going to do until the flakes start falling...or not falling 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 WRAL 12PM Update: Wednesday 12 p.m. update: Good news for Triangle snow lovers WRAL meteorologist Aimee Wilmoth said conditions this weekend are looking good for snow lovers but bad for road conditions. "I am leaning toward more snow for the Triangle," Wilmoth said, adding that she has adjusted the winter weather map showing in blue (snow), pink (sleet) and green (freezing rain) what type of precipitation will fall where on Friday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StoneColdWeatherAustin Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 I have noticed another trend. If all models are showing nothing, but then all correct to a solution where we all get snow, several people on here get really happy and do not start cursing at the models for being wrong to begin with. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 3 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: WRAL 12PM Update: Wednesday 12 p.m. update: Good news for Triangle snow lovers WRAL meteorologist Aimee Wilmoth said conditions this weekend are looking good for snow lovers but bad for road conditions. "I am leaning toward more snow for the Triangle," Wilmoth said, adding that she has adjusted the winter weather map showing in blue (snow), pink (sleet) and green (freezing rain) what type of precipitation will fall where on Friday. I guess everyone is banking on more expansive precip shield. Interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said: I guess everyone is banking on more expansive precip shield. Interesting or keeping the viewership until they finally have to walk it down 6 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Let me be clear- these are not imby posts. This has shifted from Blacksburg Virginia to oriental NC in 24 hours. You’re talking hundreds of miles and also even in the heaviest areas just a fraction of the QPF outputs from yesterday. This is not saying trends aren’t good for some on the board. Down east folks looking good for sure 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 1 minute ago, eyewall said: or keeping the viewership until they finally have to walk it down Tend to believe what ilmRoss posted about baking in that nw trend. Usually do not see less west of me so may be underdone despite models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForsythWx Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 As much as the NW side has fizzled out in the last few runs, don’t believe that’s impossible to undo. Especially with these same models that fail at consistency most of the time. Would I trust them showing a big storm 48 hours out? Probably not. Why trust the opposite? This seems to be a wonky timeframe for models anyway, in my limited experience. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 14 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: WRAL 12PM Update: Wednesday 12 p.m. update: Good news for Triangle snow lovers WRAL meteorologist Aimee Wilmoth said conditions this weekend are looking good for snow lovers but bad for road conditions. "I am leaning toward more snow for the Triangle," Wilmoth said, adding that she has adjusted the winter weather map showing in blue (snow), pink (sleet) and green (freezing rain) what type of precipitation will fall where on Friday. Funny how they start hyping things when the models start going south. Meanwhile, Greg Fishel posted on Facebook a few minutes ago we might not even see that much precipitation now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdawg10 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 8 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: Funny how they start hyping things when the models start going south. Meanwhile, Greg Fishel posted on Facebook a few minutes ago we might not even see that much precipitation now. Fishel flip flops as the models go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Just read DT's update. He is in shock about how the models have trended and he even included that the Euro ain't no where near what it used to be and that it is dead.. its time we start recognizing the GFS I believe yall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Latest GFS looks much better for us. Less icing, more snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now