Prismshine Productions Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Cuts the totals almost in half. Yikes. Not a complete loss, helps out SC folksSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 We're going to be in some very rare territory to have such an isolated event east of RDU...heck almost east of 95 the way this is trending! Not sure the 2014 analog shared earlier aligns with this event as being modeled now. I see some parsing of words coming from RAH on their WWW as it relates to western counties. We'll be lucky to see an inch across the triad. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 By the looks of it, I might get more snow from the front moving through tomorrow evening than with the bigger system late Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 6 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: Cuts the totals almost in half. Yikes. Triples the snow for us. I like it. Would rather have snow that the forecasted icefest. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Canadian STILL shows a 2-4” snowstorm for Raleigh. I get it, the trends are concerning. I feel the same way. But even so, all the reliable models still align for a 2-4” snowfall over central NC…. A month ago we’d all be jumping for joy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 UK has Snow for Raleigh points east and NE. That's it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Does anyone else find it humorous…. Ppl that actually know what they’re doing still saying 1-4” all the way back to 321 area…. And 4-6” in Raleigh even after these runs yet this entire forum is in panic mode? I think this is a case of knowing too much for our own good…. Stop taking these computers as gospel positive or negative for your back yard…. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Just now, PantherJustin said: Does anyone else find it humorous…. Ppl that actually know what they’re doing still saying 1-4” all the way back to 321 area…. And 4-6” in Raleigh even after these runs yet this entire forum is in panic mode? I think this is a case of knowing too much for our own good…. Stop taking these computers as gospel positive or negative for your back yard…. I believe it's more so of the trend towards less and less precip... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 3 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: I believe it's more so of the trend towards less and less precip... Then why isnt anyone who’s actually a met and not just a moms basement met budging ? Lol 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdawg10 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 3 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: I believe it's more so of the trend towards less and less precip... i mean not really..the areas that were expected to get the most precip havn't really changed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 I'm thinking most of us know how to read the models decently and the trend is quite apparent. Unless the Euro comes in and shows something unexpected, the overall tone related to the upcoming storm will change with the afternoon packages. I hope I'm wrong and we get a Jan 25 2000 redux. By the way Justin, how much snow/sleet did you guys get there at the lake? TW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 2 minutes ago, wxdawg10 said: i mean not really..the areas that were expected to get the most precip havn't really changed. On the NW side... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 One thing is for sure... if this happens the way it is modeled now, I believe the GFS will score the coup... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 The track is pretty clear , my only question is, will their be more moisture on the NW side than what is currently being modeled? I know we've seen that before, not saying this is the case but maybe a professional can take a stab at that?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 6 minutes ago, tarheelwx said: I'm thinking most of us know how to read the models decently and the trend is quite apparent. Unless the Euro comes in and shows something unexpected, the overall tone related to the upcoming storm will change with the afternoon packages. I hope I'm wrong and we get a Jan 25 2000 redux. By the way Justin, how much snow/sleet did you guys get there at the lake? TW 4.5” IMBY 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Below is my first accumulation map for the winter weather expected to impact the Carolinas Thursday Night through Saturday Morning. While I am not expecting wintry weather the whole entire time, waves of moisture are expected to cause periods of wintry weather. The highest snow totals are expected in the northeastern part of the state. I am expecting 4-8 inches in NE NC. As we move towards the Raleigh metro, 3-6 inches of snow is expected. Lower amounts as you move further south, but these areas are expected to have more freezing rain. Southeastern NC needs to plan for the possibility of power outages with freezing rain possibly approaching a half of an inch. For western NC and the western piedmont, lower amounts of snow are expected as you will be further away from the best moisture and low pressure center. A trace to an inch is possible in the mountains and foothills, with 1-2 inches possible for I-77, including Charlotte. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 This actually makes more sense, in that those ice totals were never really realistic for NE SC/ENC. Those are not ice favored areas. They traditionally receive snow or rain. This is turning into a classic coastal deal that we used to see more of in the 80s. Consider Christmas 1989, a foot of snow+ was really confined to Hwy 17 from Jacksonville to Elizabeth City. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Sounding that does not inspire confidence (although much improved a few hours later). We'll see hours upon hours of flizzard conditions, with a 3-6 hour window for light to moderate accumulations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 6 minutes ago, WxJordan said: Below is my first accumulation map for the winter weather expected to impact the Carolinas Thursday Night through Saturday Morning. While I am not expecting wintry weather the whole entire time, waves of moisture are expected to cause periods of wintry weather. The highest snow totals are expected in the northeastern part of the state. I am expecting 4-8 inches in NE NC. As we move towards the Raleigh metro, 3-6 inches of snow is expected. Lower amounts as you move further south, but these areas are expected to have more freezing rain. Southeastern NC needs to plan for the possibility of power outages with freezing rain possibly approaching a half of an inch. For western NC and the western piedmont, lower amounts of snow are expected as you will be further away from the best moisture and low pressure center. A trace to an inch is possible in the mountains and foothills, with 1-2 inches possible for I-77, including Charlotte. This would align with my thoughts, just take 1 inch off every total there across the board 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
85snowline Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 6 minutes ago, PantherJustin said: 4.5” IMBY Here in the Robinson HS area in Concord. WBTV very conservative with just 1-3" for the 77 corridor. Where are you seeing 4.5" for your area?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Just now, 85snowline said: Here in the Robinson HS area in Concord. WBTV very conservative with just 1-3" for the 77 corridor. Where are you seeing 4.5" for your area?? He was talking about last week I thought 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 1 minute ago, olafminesaw said: Sounding that does not inspire confidence (although much improved a few hours later). We'll see hours upon hours of flizzard conditions, with a 3-6 hour window for light to moderate accumulations Yuck, talk about lack of saturation through the column. Definitely going to struggle on the outside edge of this. Very cold dry air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
85snowline Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Just now, PantherJustin said: He was talking about last week I thought It helps when I read the quote that u quoted... oops.. nice total for last week! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 49 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: Cuts the totals almost in half. Yikes. Well, it was fun while it lasted I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Just my thinking for now...Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 21 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Yuck, talk about lack of saturation through the column. Definitely going to struggle on the outside edge of this. Very cold dry air Almost reminds me of lake effect snow showers in Pittsburgh. At least you can get decent squalls with that, but it amazes me how any given January day, there's a high chance of seeing light snow showers. Kinda takes the fun out snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Anyone have the UKIE snow map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Anyone have the UKIE snow map?UKSent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 1 minute ago, StantonParkHoya said: Anyone have the UKIE snow map? Almost identical to Canadian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 ECMWF look different? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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