Stormpc Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 33 minutes ago, jlh said: We live very near you then, most of the local folks are giving an onset time in the early morning hours Friday. So if you are flying into Norfolk Friday morning you might be cutting it kind of close. NWS has mentioned an inch of snow overnight Thursday with Hampton Roads not expecting a break between systems. There's not going to be any issues on the road in Hampton Roads or Northeast North Carolina until at the earliest Friday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 50 minutes ago, msuwx said: The Charlotte metro and surrounding area is an incredibly difficult call as it all hinges on a very subtle (in the overall scheme of the atmosphere) NW expansion of the back edge of the snow shield. I mean these are very small differences when looking at the atmosphere as a whole, but the result has been very wild swings in possible snow totals in that part of the region, even just over the course of the 0z and 6z runs. 6z vs. 0z Euro: 41 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: It's going to be painful for those on the N and W fringes watching the precip run into a wall of dry air for hours and hours Yep, us on the western edge will be watching that precip field very closely in hopes of even the slightest westward expansion. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Yep, us on the western edge will be watching that precip field very closely in hopes of even the slightest westward expansion. Considering the 6z run is the one on the left, it works out better this time around Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 2 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said: Considering the 6z run is the one on the left, it works out better this time around Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Yea @Amos83 NWsGSP has pretty much everyone Along East of 77 in the 2-3” range on their map 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 16 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said: Lol the HRRR pops a low over the Apps from the front Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Yeah, think that was expected. Gives some that fropa snow tomorrow evening, but many just get a shower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 2 minutes ago, PantherJustin said: Yea @Amos83 NWsGSP has pretty much everyone Along East of 77 in the 2-3” range on their map Didn't realize you moved over this way. Didn't you live over the Afton area of Concord for a while? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 HRRR more amped through 40Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Gulf Low hr43Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Al Conklin out Of CLT for those interested also shows Raleigh 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 8 minutes ago, PantherJustin said: Al Conklin out Of CLT for those interested also shows Raleigh I'll take that call any day of the week LOL. Anyway he is definitely a bit more west with higher totals than I would have thought but not impossible. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 I know everyone is excited about the snow but being here in Jacksonville, I am extremely concerned about a catastrophic ice event. Am I over thinking this or am I right to be worried? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 I think we are now in the range where everyone needs to watch every thermal on every run if you live south/east of I77Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlh Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 42 minutes ago, CntrTim85 said: Yep. We're in Moyock. We're driving though. Thinking of leaving around midnight tomorrow and get home around Noon on Friday. Same re: Moyock. Looking at the models we should be getting down to freezing right around the time you would be starting your drive with precip already in the area. Drive careful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlh Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 40 minutes ago, Stormpc said: There's not going to be any issues on the road in Hampton Roads or Northeast North Carolina until at the earliest Friday evening. Definitely can't say I agree. Friday morning's commute will have some issues in places with it getting progressively worse. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 9 minutes ago, eyewall said: I'll take that call any day of the week LOL. Anyway he is definitely a bit more west with higher totals than I would have thought but not impossible. He sure is. That 3-5" hit is interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 9 minutes ago, eyewall said: I'll take that call any day of the week LOL. Anyway he is definitely a bit more west with higher totals than I would have thought but not impossible. I can only speak for myself but I believe he’s using a bit of experience with these systems…. How they act Or “Overachieve” in overrunning ect. I didn’t even realize he’d been in CLT on WBTV as long as anyone I guess bc he’s in the morning I never noticed but he’s also been there since I was a kid like BP,Crum,East,EricT(Retired). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 13 minutes ago, senc30 said: I know everyone is excited about the snow but being here in Jacksonville, I am extremely concerned about a catastrophic ice event. Am I over thinking this or am I right to be worried? Nah…. Maybe 1/4” - 1/3” but Models always over do ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 9 minutes ago, jlh said: Definitely can't say I agree. Friday morning's commute will have some issues in places with it getting progressively worse. Who knows. I'm thinking we're not going to have any road issues until it gets below 30 and that is not going to happen until Friday evening. Round one is not going to produce any problems. It's round two gets going earlier it's likely going to be on the south side and more sleet Friday morning with temps 33-35. Maybe colder up the peninsula. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 NAM looks to be coming in good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Don't think the NAM will be a good run for NW areas, but we shall see. Seems to be keying in more on the first piece of energy, which doesn't get the job done 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 NAM looks suppressed. Very suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Yeah northern branch might be well out ahead this time on the 12z NAM. Let's see where it goes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justicebork Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Hopefully the precip is not as mixed as the messages here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 NAM looks awful.....suppressed 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 NAM is moisture starved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 5 minutes ago, Justicebork said: Hopefully the precip is not as mixed as the messages here. Well the first thump was better on the NAM but the 2nd one looks squished. Thus the mixed messages. It’s hard to put much stock into the NAM until it shows some consistency. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justicebork Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 at HR 48, the precip field looks much better than the 6z run at 54. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Still looks okay for the eastern part of NC. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 It's still perhaps closer to a good outcome than it appears. Small changes yield big changes in results. We really need that initial northern energy to die out so the energy in Texas can amplify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 northern trough weaker and more positive tilted on the NAM... gross. Another tick or two in that direction and there won't be a storm for anyone. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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