Prismshine Productions Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 10 minutes ago, calculus1 said: I think that since this, a lot of things changed. The tv mets have changed their thinking from this idea above to what the NWS and other private mets/hobbyists are thinking and that’s a central NC and eastward storm. But, we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 70-90% confidence of .25-.5" of ice... JeshSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 8 minutes ago, EarlGrey said: Watches up now. Can I get my hopes up? Depends on where you are. You may want to put your location in your profile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 It’s a little trippy to see Wral saying 2-5 and stating models saying it could be more. Add the NWS saying 3.8 (3-5). I’m used to seeing conservative numbers until they have to increase them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 2 minutes ago, Regan said: It’s a little trippy to see Wral saying 2-5 and stating models saying it could be more. Add the NWS saying 3.8 (3-5). I’m used to seeing conservative numbers until they have to increase them. The 2-5" is the language from the Winter Storm Watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Euro was magnificent last night. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 3 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: Euro was magnificent last night. Brick, you are in, what looks like a really good spot right now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
27596WXNUT Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said: Euro was magnificent last night. Brick, I’ve been a lurker for many years with a random post here or there. We are not far from each other from what I can gather from your posts over the years. I think the models are all getting on the same page. Looks from the models we are in a good spot for our area. Barring any warm nose which has spoiled our fun the past several storms over the years. Should be fun to watch it unfold. Hope everything holds through the day today. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Watching the 06z euro, minor differences if any so far from 0z..... out to hour 51 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 06z euro very similar to 0z. Maybe a slight expansion of the precip NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Solid 7-9" for Raleigh. 3-5" for Winston Salem/Greensboro. 2-4" for southern VA including Danville. Taken verbatim, 9-12" in SE VA, Extreme NE NC 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 9 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Watching the 06z euro, minor differences if any so far from 0z..... out to hour 51 Seems to me a step in the right direction for the NW gang. Moves a bit towards the idea of the low continuing to develop as it progresses east 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said: Solid 7-9" for Raleigh. 3-5" for Winston Salem/Greensboro. 2-4" for southern VA including Danville. Taken verbatim, 9-12" in SE VA, Extreme NE NC Map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Just now, olafminesaw said: Seems to me a step in the right direction for the NW gang. Moves a bit towards the idea of the low continuing to develop as it progresses east Yep. Had a slight tick to the NW with the precip shield. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Better than expected. Many would take this in a heartbeat (although note that the fringes will shrink with time as the forecast gets nailed down) 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Map? 06z EUROSent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 16 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Better than expected. Many would take this in a heartbeat (although note that the fringes will shrink with time as the forecast gets nailed down) Is there an analog storm that has pasted the Charleston WV to GSP to Fayetteville to RDU to DC to Philly to this extent? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Wow, Euro still looks great, especially the Kuchera map. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 5 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: Is there an analog storm that has pasted the Charleston WV to GSP to Fayetteville to RDU to DC to Philly to this extent? The snow in WV/Northern VA a separate wave on the back end of the initial frontal passage 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 The Charlotte metro and surrounding area is an incredibly difficult call as it all hinges on a very subtle (in the overall scheme of the atmosphere) NW expansion of the back edge of the snow shield. I mean these are very small differences when looking at the atmosphere as a whole, but the result has been very wild swings in possible snow totals in that part of the region, even just over the course of the 0z and 6z runs. 6z vs. 0z Euro: 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 6 minutes ago, msuwx said: The Charlotte metro and surrounding area is an incredibly difficult call as it all hinges on a very subtle (in the overall scheme of the atmosphere) NW expansion of the back edge of the snow shield. I mean these are very small differences when looking at the atmosphere as a whole, but the result has been very wild swings in possible snow totals in that part of the region, even just over the course of the 0z and 6z runs. 6z vs. 0z Euro: Do you still think your overall thoughts from yesterday with the map are the same? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 7 minutes ago, msuwx said: The Charlotte metro and surrounding area is an incredibly difficult call as it all hinges on a very subtle (in the overall scheme of the atmosphere) NW expansion of the back edge of the snow shield. I mean these are very small differences when looking at the atmosphere as a whole, but the result has been very wild swings in possible snow totals in that part of the region, even just over the course of the 0z and 6z runs. 6z vs. 0z Euro: It's going to be painful for those on the N and W fringes watching the precip run into a wall of dry air for hours and hours 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlh Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 42 minutes ago, CntrTim85 said: I'm literally licking my lips in Hampton Roads. Well 5 min from the NC/VA border. We haven't had a decent snow in 4 years. I'm in Disney and our last day is Thursday. Seen a lot of different timing starts. Should we leave Thursday night or be okay for super early Friday morning? Thanks! We live very near you then, most of the local folks are giving an onset time in the early morning hours Friday. So if you are flying into Norfolk Friday morning you might be cutting it kind of close. NWS has mentioned an inch of snow overnight Thursday with Hampton Roads not expecting a break between systems. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 13 minutes ago, msuwx said: The Charlotte metro and surrounding area is an incredibly difficult call as it all hinges on a very subtle (in the overall scheme of the atmosphere) NW expansion of the back edge of the snow shield. I mean these are very small differences when looking at the atmosphere as a whole, but the result has been very wild swings in possible snow totals in that part of the region, even just over the course of the 0z and 6z runs. 6z vs. 0z Euro: Thanks Matt. The 06Z brings the shield westward to bank up against the hills. Sightly... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlh Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 24 minutes ago, eyewall said: Juicy snow totals for NE NC if it happens as depicted on these. NWS Wakefield seems to be buying off on a warm nose holding for awhile, will be interesting to see where that sets up as to if the higher totals in NE NC actually realize. I saw the warm nose in the forecast soundings from the 12z in yesterday's GFS but haven't seen the latest if it has been consistent or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 I haven't put out numbers yet, but here is what I drew up for a probability of 2" of snow as of early this morning. 9 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 3k NAM really shifted the 0C line for the 925mb and 850mb layer further south, it was a good bit tooSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Lol the HRRR pops a low over the Apps from the front Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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