NorthHillsWx Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 14 minutes ago, ILMRoss said: Going to put on my pessimistic hat on for a second... (I don't like making these posts so this is the only one I'm doing for this storm...) The snow maps for the triangle are beautiful. Lovely. It's a picturesque spike that punctures straight through Wake County. I'll tell you how I'm interpreting it right now- I'm mentally taking it and shoving it 30 miles to the north. I've sat through so many of these storm threads and seen Wake County in a lovely position just to see sleet. I've been snakebitten so. many. times. We are consistently finding new ways to end up with sleet. So as I see more of these perfect snow maps the pit in my stomach just grows larger. I'm currently put off by how skinny and shaky the modeled snow corridor is, it really leaves no margin of error. If our system ends up weaker and strung out, the snow corridor isn't simply shoved south- it will shrink with decreased lift and precipitation will struggle to get past, say, highway 1. A stronger version of our current system will likely shift the sleet line north of Wake County. Raleigh folks: we look good right now but man I don't like this tenuous balancing act. What I'm looking and hoping for tonight is our northern shortwave somehow beefing up a little more- dropping down with a little more pep in its step- and being able to dig south more. qpf wouldn't be an issue and I think this would depress heights enough to make mixing in the triangle way less of an issue. As I said earlier, if it’s just sleet and in the 20’s that’s a huge win. I haven’t had snow on my driveway since 2018 in December. A winter storm with snow/sleet, temps way below freezing, and no freezing rain is almost unheard of here. So if the pretty snow map doesn’t verify and we get 2-3” of glacier, I will be the happiest person on the board. As for the no precip part… definitely praying we don’t trend further east, but honestly a weak, slider type system is what gives us our snow most of the time. I like the trends today and I love where we’re at 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 18 minutes ago, ILMRoss said: Going to put on my pessimistic hat on for a second... (I don't like making these posts so this is the only one I'm doing for this storm...) The snow maps for the triangle are beautiful. Lovely. It's a picturesque spike that punctures straight through Wake County. I'll tell you how I'm interpreting it right now- I'm mentally taking it and shoving it 30 miles to the north. I've sat through so many of these storm threads and seen Wake County in a lovely position just to see sleet. I've been snakebitten so. many. times. We are consistently finding new ways to end up with sleet. So as I see more of these perfect snow maps the pit in my stomach just grows larger. I'm currently put off by how skinny and shaky the modeled snow corridor is, it really leaves no margin of error. If our system ends up weaker and strung out, the snow corridor isn't simply shoved south- it will shrink with decreased lift and precipitation will struggle to get past, say, highway 1. A stronger version of our current system will likely shift the sleet line north of Wake County. Raleigh folks: we look good right now but man I don't like this tenuous balancing act. What I'm looking and hoping for tonight is our northern shortwave somehow beefing up a little more- dropping down with a little more pep in its step- and being able to dig south more. qpf wouldn't be an issue and I think this would depress heights enough to make mixing in the triangle way less of an issue. 30 miles north you say 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 NAM looks amazing 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 whoa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 WowwwwSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EarlGrey Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Well?! Did Wake jackpot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 We’ve ALL been NAM’d 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 RIP...Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 The NAM needs to stop playing with my emotions. 6 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 The 0z NAM is a thing of beauty. Almost 8" and still pouring... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 The NAM looks good to me, Ill take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 So, how bout that almost 6 inches of sleet. You think that would stick around till March? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said: The 0z NAM is a thing of beauty. Almost 8" and still pouring... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Euro is literally bone dry for the upstate and the NAM is dropping 10 inches of low ratio snow. you tell me? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 I am not a fan, although having 4 inches of sleet would be interesting to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 19, 2022 Author Share Posted January 19, 2022 Just now, burrel2 said: Euro is literally bone dry for the upstate and the NAM is dropping 10 inches of low ratio snow. you tell me? I wonder if GSP is ripping their hair out yet. Lol. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leesville Wx Hawk Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Huge! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 I am not a fan, although having 4 inches of sleet would be interesting to say the least.Nice sledding weather... Rare to say thatSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Just now, buckeyefan1 said: I’d imagine the snow areas would benefit from ratios much better that 10:1 with that kind of cold air. Holy hell that’s a mega storm for everyone on this board 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Would love for the NAM to be right... but would definitely need the other models to jump on board.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 3 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: So, how bout that almost 6 inches of sleet. You think that would stick around till March? ugh, that Wake county gradient. Is it done at 84? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Just now, CaryWx said: ugh, that Wake county gradient Patented. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 I don't know if anyone in history has ever been "Nam'ed" more than the upstate just did. The classic other models showing nothing and you are getting nothing but yet the NAM just dumped 8-12 inches on you. NAM'ED! 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 1 minute ago, CaryWx said: ugh, that Wake county gradient. Is it done at 84? One of the only things lending any credibility to this run! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 1 minute ago, CaryWx said: ugh, that Wake county gradient You should move to Wake Forest. Everyone else is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 ugh, that Wake county gradient. Is it done at 84?NopeSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Great run on the NAM. However, with all of the qpf, why do we not have a bombing out low - 1013 seems pretty weak. I was expecting a deeper low with the heavy amounts of precip. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 If the NAM amps this up again tomorrow, a lot of folks in the Triangle are going to get a LOT of sleet and ZR. However it is the NAM12K and I will wait for the 3K before I say it is likely to happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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