jlh Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 13 minutes ago, eyewall said: If anything the 18z GFS pushed the ZR a bit farther southeast and the main round of snow is in a much shorter period. I think what I was looking at was onset through about Friday mid morning or so. The forecast sounding had a very slight and pesky warm nose around 750mb but it definitely does erode, as you mention, to favor snow later Friday until the end of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldsborosnow Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 8 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said: 0z tomorrow we have our playbook for the game winning drive Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Just need Joe Buck for the play by play/call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghicks Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 just hope its not dak at the quarterback. lol 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Just now, Ghicks said: just hope its not dak at the quarterback. lol I feel that’s how we are sometimes though. Running with little time on the clock knowing we don’t have a timeout. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 I feel that’s how we are sometimes though. Running with little time on the clock knowing we don’t have a timeout. Last weekend in a nutshellSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 4 minutes ago, eyewall said: Through 7 pm Friday but won't it still be snowing then? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Just now, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: Through 7 pm Friday but won't it still be snowing then? It would seem so but I think there is a limit on how far they can go out on these. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 GSP .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 215 pm EST Tuesday: The pattern will get active once again through the short-term period as a series of northern stream waves dive southeast through the Great Lakes region Wednesday night into Thursday and amplify a positively tilted trough from the Upper Midwest to the central Plains. The trough will help to drive a moist cold front into the southern Appalachians Wednesday night, which will slip southeast of the area through Thursday. Anticipate mainly liquid ptypes with the fropa, except at the higher peaks and increasingly along the Tennessee border in brief, post fropa northwest flow. Since the highest QPF over the western mountains should be one-half inch or less, this should not be sufficient for hydro issues to develop, even with some mountain snow melt. It has become questionable how much of a lull will develop between the cold fropa and redeveloping upglide over the stalling boundary. A consensus is building that a sharpening upper jetlet may develop along the southern Appalachians Thursday night through Friday. The amplifying upstream trough will be potent, but now appears less likely to cut off west of the Appalachians and more likely to get picked up by the northern stream. The main uncertainty during the Thursday night to Friday period is how vigorous any surface waves become along the stalled boundary draped to our southeast. The ECM has stronger development and pulls more moisture, and thereby QPF, over the region Friday, while the GFS has a more muted response. The ECMWF has trended slightly toward the GFS, but the GEFS ensembles have plenty of snowy members still. Will use an ensemble approach to profiles and keep mainly snow across the region, but with a snow, sleet, and freezing rain mention for the southeast third. This will be introduced into the HWO. Temps will be shaded below guidance as cold air damming develops Friday from 1040 mb high pressure over New England. The wintry precipitation will continue into the early extended period. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 225 pm EST Tuesday: Wintry precipitation may well be ongoing in the forecast area Friday night as surface wave development continues along a frontal zone stalled near the coast. Profiles look cold overall, but with any warm nose energy aloft likely affecting locations southeast of I-85 where QPF may be better. It increasingly appears that the best overlap of cold, snow-supporting profiles and decent QPF will be over the northwest NC Piedmont Friday night into Saturday morning. And, any ice accumulations will be more likely over the southeast Piedmont. However, considerable uncertainty exists with this system and it remains too early to feature any Watch products. The wintry potential will be addressed in the HWO, and first cut accumulations will likely be advertised on Wednesday for the entire late week period. The system should pull away to the northeast later Saturday, but reinforcing energy digging into the eastern CONUS trough will amplify the pattern to keep cold air over the region through the rest of the weekend and into early next week. There is some potential for clipper-type waves to dig into the trough and bring scattered snow showers to the NC mountains periodically, but this will be very hard to time. Temperatures remain below climatology well into next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 16 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: I feel that’s how we are sometimes though. Running with little time on the clock knowing we don’t have a timeout. The dumbest playoff play call I’ve ever seen. RGEM would likely be close to a foot for almost every population center in NC. What a run. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Couple thoughts on the potential phasing: It seems like the 18z models diverge on whether or not the baja low gets left behind around hr 60-66. Are we to believe the NAM/RGEM at hour 60 or the GFS/ICON? For the 00z runs tonight, we will be at hour 54 of the divergence... have to think that close to it happening, we will get some resolution. FWIW, the 12z Ukmet was actually similar looking to the 18z NAM at 5h with the phasing, just not as strong, and I think the ukmet has a dry bias as well on the n/w side of a precip shield. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Couple thoughts on the potential phasing: It seems like the 18z models diverge on whether or not the baja low gets left behind around hr 60-66. Are we to believe the NAM/RGEM at hour 60 or the GFS/ICON? For the 00z runs tonight, we will be at hour 54 of the divergence... have to think that close to it happening, we will get some resolution. FWIW, the 12z Ukmet was actually similar looking to the 18z NAM at 5h with the phasing, just not as strong, and I think the ukmet has a dry bias as well on the n/w side of a precip shield. yeah, 6z tomorrow puts us in range of the 3k NAMSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 sorta feel like this 18z euro is going to be a huge deciding factor for the upstate. It really needs to look the 18z Rgem/NAM just looked. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Nice trends today now the gfs is caving to the euro big time. Yday gfs had no storm. Now look. Trends baby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
27596WXNUT Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 31 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: Through 7 pm Friday but won't it still be snowing then? That’s exactly what I was thinking @TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beach Snow Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Maybe not looking at it right but 18z euro seems a lot drier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beach Snow Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Wow seems like a big shift toward the GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 yea 18z euro misses. Ugh. lol (didn't really shift much from 12z, just hoping for tick towards the 18z short range models) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Snow total maps from ECMWF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beach Snow Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 2 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: Snow total maps from ECMWF? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beach Snow Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Just now, Beach Snow said: Don’t get me wrong it’s still a hell of a run, but it’s the trends that are a little worrisome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghicks Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 yea many more east trends and several could be out of the game. but which model is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 That run was dry as heck... Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beach Snow Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 RGEM is very promising. I remember last storm Ryan Maue said it performs much better than NAM and GFS in short range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 18z Euro has me concerned now... this is not trending well at all.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Just now, BornAgain13 said: 18z Euro has me concerned now... this is not trending well at all.. For who? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 One run isn't a trend really.. Gotta keep watching. For those with access to the ECMWF, what in the synoptics changed? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 1 minute ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: For who? Folks like me in Virginia. Eastern NC still looks good. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Hate to say this, but this goes for especially up my way, watching the models the past few days on this has proven , the EURO is no longer the King.... GFS has dethroned it. Change my mind. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now