Brick Tamland Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 So, was the NAM just bringing the precip 24 hours later or did it just not have the precip Thursday night like the GFS and Euro did? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Man I really hope they run is due to some newly ingested data and the other models follow along 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 18z NAM very different in terms of bringing in the southern shortwave later and further west. Would probably be an I-85 event. Very different than 12z runs and I consider it an outlier at the moment. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 5 minutes ago, wncsnow said: You can see where its heading Yep. That was about to hit us really good 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 minute ago, burrel2 said: Man I really hope they run is due to some newly ingested data and the other models follow along Nope, you had your storm. Share some with your brethren further east 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunBlade Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Yea at hour 63 NAM looked like it wanted to phase and dig more but then fizzled out and the southern wave just hung back in Texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 For all you in western NC jumping on that run, take a moment to consider your brothers and sisters in the SC midlands...Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 No complaints here 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Models basically have no idea which wave or piece of energy to key in on. 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 6 minutes ago, wake4est said: No complaints here That looks nearly if not identical to yesterdays WPC graphic…. Apparently they’ve seen nothing to change their mind 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 This is unreal.... we are this close to an event and nobody has any confidence of what will take place.... 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghicks Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Fixing to start smoking lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 I'm still sticking with the EE rule 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunBlade Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 minute ago, PantherJustin said: That looks nearly if not identical to yesterdays WPC graphic…. Apparently they’ve seen nothing to change their mind That's because you don't live in Union County anymore! We are now in the heavy snow blob that was probably drawn blindfolded since nobody knows what is going on. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said: This is unreal.... we are this close to an event and nobody has any confidence of what will take place.... The 18Z NAM idea is the one that has made the most sense to me from the beginning. In a scenario with a trof oriented the way it is across the W Gulf/Texas it does not make sense to me that the energy would bury and not eject out 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 WRAL first call map 1 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lj0109 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 CAE's latest thoughts: Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 335 PM EST Tue Jan 18 2022 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure and a dry airmass will remain over the region through Wednesday, producing more typical January weather. A cold front moves into the area Thursday bringing a good chance of rain. Friday into the weekend look very unsettled with a mix of wintry weather expected through Saturday. Conditions improve Sunday into the first part of next week..SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Wednesday looks to be the primary transition day as the surface high pressure center will slowly shift offshore. Southwest surface and 850mb flow will ramp up throughout the day as the high exits and central CONUS shortwave approaches allowing modest moisture into the area with dew points climbing into the upper 30`s and low 40`s. Cloud cover is expected to persist throughout the day given the overrunning and moisture return at low-mid levels. High temperatures will finally jump above average for the first time in several days, generally in the low 60`s across the area. Southwest flow will continue ahead of the front associated with the shortwave off to the west into Wednesday night. There is good consensus across guidance on the overall timing of the front, entering the forecast area from the northwest around 12z Thursday and progressively sliding southeast through the area by 18z. Overall precip totals will be fairly low given the mountain interaction and general lack of synoptic lift. The arctic airmass begins filling in behind this front and this is where things start to get more uncertain. The front is expected to slow and stall as a weak area of low pressure develops along the Gulf coast and northern Florida. Guidance is somewhat consistent is showing PoPs continuing into late Thursday as the front stalls but the interaction with the diving cold air is the primary uncertainty. Regardless of model solution, the surface layer air should remain too warm for any frozen precip until early Friday morning. Some wintry PoPs begin across our extreme northern counties between 06z and 12z Friday..LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... While a somewhat clearer picture has developed in the last few model suites, there is still relatively high uncertainty in the Friday-weekend system will play out. The mid-upper level flow is inherently chaotic and unstable for run to run consistency with numerous shortwaves embedded across the general southwest flow across the CONUS. So this type of uncertainty is annoyingly expected given the pattern. Each global operational model and its corresponding ensemble are depicting somewhat unique solutions on how both the upper level pattern will develop over the northeast and southwest CONUS, and how the low pressure center will develop along the stalling cold front. Friday appears to be coming into clearer focus, albeit slowly, with NAM, ECMWF, and GFS all developing a broad shield of overrunning over top the southward rushing arctic airmass as strong south- southwest flow ramps up. Associated ensembles are still quite scattered in timing and intensity of this precip, but at least there is a decent signal compared to 24 hours ago. Obviously this interaction between a thin cold layer, sharp mid level trough, strong upper level jet, and weakly developing low pressure is tricky and guidance likely not get a good handle on it for another day or so. So current thinking on Friday wintry precip is increasing slightly in confidence but intensity remains a big question mark as does spatial extent. All wintry precip types are possible at this time across the fa, particularly sleet and freezing rain. We should start to see better agreement in the next suite or two over the specifics of the Friday event. More uncertainty develops for how the shortwave over the southwest CONUS and western Gulf will track east and then interact with stalled front. The GFS and associated ensembles are more aggressive with pushing the shortwave east and spinning up the stalled front in the Gulf. This then swings another batch of wintry precip into the fa Saturday and would dramatically increase impacts. The EC and Canadian ensembles and operational are much more suppressed with this second shortwave, so impacts would be minimal or none. Again with the complexity of the 500 mb pattern, this will be inherently unstable run to run so not expecting consistency for another run or two. In general, there is a large spread of possible outcomes with this event ranging from mild inconvenience to highly impactful winter storm across the Midlands and CSRA. Cold temps fill in behind this regardless of what plays out and the long term is expected to remain well below average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Struggling to take seriously a model that spits out this: 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Don't look at DT'S afternoon discussion... he mostly uses last nights runs instead of this afternoons.... which obviously has changed from last night.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said: Don't look at DT'S afternoon discussion... he mostly uses last nights runs instead of this afternoons.... which obviously has changed from last night.... I don't know why anyone pays attention to him. He's a jerk. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 4 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: WRAL first call map They need to hire Huffman. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 ICON at 18z is similar to the GFS. Probably best from I-95 east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 22 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said: For all you in western NC jumping on that run, take a moment to consider your brothers and sisters in the SC midlands... Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk I'll be thinking about yall while I'm hanging out at Disney for the next week 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said: Don't look at DT'S afternoon discussion... he mostly uses last nights runs instead of this afternoons.... which obviously has changed from last night.... How does this guy have so much met street Cred? I’ve been on here since 2013 and see his name every storm and he’s never been right on anything or remotely close. I hope ppl don’t actually pay this 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 minute ago, franklin NCwx said: I'll be thinking about yall while I'm hanging out at Disney for the next week Come on down, weather is lovely here right now. Flew down from Charlotte Douglas yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris624wx Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 minute ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: ICON at 18z is similar to the GFS. Probably best from I-95 east. Yep, still looking good for SE VA! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghicks Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 New trend whatever run is best for your backyard it’s a trend lol just joking atleasf we have something to track unlike December 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 3 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: ICON at 18z is similar to the GFS. Probably best from I-95 east. Not a bad run for central NC and Southern VA folks.... 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said: Not a bad run for central NC and Southern VA folks.... Not at all. We’ll take the check, please! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForsythWx Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 18z ICON doesn’t just look good for east of I-95... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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