CaryWx Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 CMC suppression really making the 12z euro a thing of anticipation now. Would think better alignment would be in the cards by now instead of the ways this phase/no-phase is getting handled still. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 GEFS just ice after ice after SC...Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 To my untrained eye, it looks like the gfs took a baby step towards the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 2 minutes ago, ILMRoss said: One thing I'd like to add- I think sometimes everyone (mets, hobbyists, whoever) can fall into the pitfall of humanizing models too much- I see some "I trust the Euro over everything" like the Euro is a close friend you've been gossiping with, or "the GFS has been hot this month" as if the GFS is Klay Thompson. This isn't a message saying not to rely on models for known strengths and accounting for known biases- but at the end of the day every model is just a supercomputer taking in data, running it through different recipes of the same planetary laws and equations, and spitting stuff out and I think it's good not to get too caught up with the narrative behind each model. Goes back to the old saying, "meteorology over modelogy"...LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Please God let the GEM be rightPlease God let the GEM be right... (No ice)Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beach Snow Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 If doing modelology the Canadian caved pretty hard to the gfs solution of suppression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 9 minutes ago, burrel2 said: Imo, it's pretty much game over for the upstate if the baja low doesn't get mostly sucked up in to the trough. The 06z Euro still did this but it was starting to leave a tail of energy behind compared to previous runs. The 12z Nam and 12z Icon sucks it up in a similar fashion, the mostly catch it but leave a bit of a trail behind. The 12z Rgem leaves a little bit more of it behind.. longer tail, less precip. 12z GFS leaves it completely behind (so much so that it's showing a very weak secondary wave of precip from it. Yep, Burrel that's a great summation. Seems we've seen energy get left in the SW often over the last decade. Euro will be very telling today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Going to go forth and say I don't like the Christian McCaffery model either, funny enough that northern shortwave was solidly south of the GFS but the precipitation response was much more muted in comparison. Probably some other stuff going on but you'd expect to see more expansive precip with the Canadian. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottk Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Please God let the GEM be rightPlease God let the GEM be right... (No ice)Sent from my SM-S115DL using TapatalkThis would be much preferred to the all ice forecast that NOAA just changed to for NE SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 minute ago, ILMRoss said: Going to go forth and say I don't like the Christian McCaffery model either, funny enough that northern shortwave was solidly south of the GFS but the precipitation response was much more muted in comparison. Probably some other stuff going on but you'd expect to see more expansive precip with the Canadian. Maybe they ran it to death like the Panthers did with McCaffery. 2 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 UK is another I 95 special but trended east from last run 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 This is why it is so hard in central NC. You have to thread the needle. Too strong of a system and too far west, you get ice/rain like last weekend. Too weak or too far east, the precip stays at the coast. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: UK is another I 95 special but trended east from last run Sounds like last storm at this lead time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 gefs expanded precip from 06z to 12z 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Lol, the triad went from 12" to 2" of snow on the UKMET. Definitely supports the idea not only of more suppressed, but also for significant coastal impacts 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 UK trended away from what it had at 0z. Still a good storm for Raleigh points east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jharv Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 14 minutes ago, ILMRoss said: One thing I'd like to add- I think sometimes everyone (mets, hobbyists, whoever) can fall into the pitfall of humanizing models too much- I see some "I trust the Euro over everything" like the Euro is a close friend you've been gossiping with, or "the GFS has been hot this month" as if the GFS is Klay Thompson. This isn't a message saying not to rely on models for known strengths and accounting for known biases- but at the end of the day every model is just a supercomputer taking in data, running it through different recipes of the same planetary laws and equations, and spitting stuff out and I think it's good not to get too caught up with the narrative behind each model. Easy for you to say, caught my wife with the NAM lastnight. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 This storm does look a little like the Jan 02 storm that's been mentioned with where the heaviest area of accumulations is showing up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 IMO, I think eastern NC is the place to be with this type of set-up. I am trying to think of a time when a front stalled along the coast and moisture works it way all the way back to the mountains, and I really do not know of any off the top of my head for a winter storm. Not saying it is impossible, just a lot has to go right. Coastal areas have the better chance right now. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 IMO, I think eastern NC is the place to be with this type of set-up. I am trying to think of a time when a front stalled along the coast and moisture works it way all the way back to the mountains, and I really do not know of any off the top of my head for a winter storm. Not saying it is impossible, just a lot has to go right. Coastal areas have the better chance right now.Warmer version of the 2018 Coastal Cutter is what comes to mindSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 19 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said: Please God let the GEM be right Please God let the GEM be right... (No ice) Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Yes, please let this happen. I got gas for the generator just in case the icefest happens. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tigerchick224 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Imo, it's pretty much game over for the upstate if the baja low doesn't get mostly sucked up in to the trough. The 06z Euro still did this but it was starting to leave a tail of energy behind compared to previous runs. The 12z Nam and 12z Icon sucks it up in a similar fashion, the mostly catch it but leave a bit of a trail behind. The 12z Rgem leaves a little bit more of it behind.. longer tail, less precip. 12z GFS leaves it completely behind (so much so that it's showing a very weak secondary wave of precip from it. Are you thinking this for the first wave, second wave, or both waves of precip? I remember events where precipitation was supposed to fill in from the east and it never did.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 15 minutes ago, wncsnow said: UK is another I 95 special but trended east from last run I looked under the hood and I want to couch that for a zone between Raleigh to Norfolk a decent amount of this accumulation is from Thursday night action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Allan Huffman says he has a hunch this will be a typical NE NC / SE VA system. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 CAE hasn't put out an AFD since 348am... They really must be scrambling to sort through the modelsSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 34 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: Oh that’s a pretty sight 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 I won't post for fear of confusion, but the Canadian drops one heckuva weenie run in a storm on the 27th 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 I really think east of I-77 is looking good right now. I-95 and east looks really good. Everything just points that way right now. West of I-77 not totally out of the woods yet, but this is really looking to be a more coastal event. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 I won't post for fear of confusion, but the Canadian drops one heckuva weenie run in a storm on the 27thGFS picked up on it over the weekend then dropped itSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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