ILMRoss Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Is this the new banter thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 15 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Is this the new banter thread? I think you have a weird mix of emotions on here. A little bit of "here we go again", a little bit of "most focus is going to the situation at hand", etc. But to balance my pop cultural reference I will say this: On a wholesale level this potential looks much more fruitful than our current storm. Temperatures are leagues better. Huge, consistently modeled cold push. The smart folks at Wilmington's weather office have already put in snow in their forecasts. That almost never happens. I think that just about every office around here already introducing snow for next weekend is a pretty big sign. The National Weather Service is generally the largest brain trust of meteorological knowledge that we have and it's both rare and awesome to see them biting this far out. Since we're immediately following a storm that had a ton of potential that backslid into Miller B mush as we got closer, I think feeling snakebitten and being a little reticent to buy into this is understandable. But make no mistake- I'm feeling pretty excited now that I've digested things. Hoping that the 12z suite is positive after I've left such a gushing review of the potential here. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 15 minutes ago, ILMRoss said: I think you have a weird mix of emotions on here. A little bit of "here we go again", a little bit of "most focus is going to the situation at hand", etc. But to balance my pop cultural reference I will say this: On a wholesale level this potential looks much more fruitful than our current storm. Temperatures are leagues better. Huge, consistently modeled cold push. The smart folks at Wilmington's weather office have already put in snow in their forecasts. That almost never happens. I think that just about every office around here already introducing snow for next weekend is a pretty big sign. The National Weather Service is generally the largest brain trust of meteorological knowledge that we have and it's both rare and awesome to see them biting this far out. Since we're immediately following a storm that had a ton of potential that backslid into Miller B mush as we got closer, I think feeling snakebitten and being a little reticent to buy into this is understandable. But make no mistake- I'm feeling pretty excited now that I've digested things. Hoping that the 12z suite is positive after I've left such a gushing review of the potentia I appreciate your insight. Definitely just kidding around here. Hard to get excited about something 6 days away when it's currently snowing outside, but wow, who thought we'd get such a stellar pattern out of this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KyleEverett Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 After Sleet and Freezing Rain, I need some snow in the Piedmont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 16, 2022 Author Share Posted January 16, 2022 12 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: I appreciate your insight. Definitely just kidding around here. Hard to get excited about something 6 days away when it's currently snowing outside, but wow, who thought we'd get such a stellar pattern out of this winter December flowers bring January snow showers? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 13 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: I appreciate your insight. Definitely just kidding around here. Hard to get excited about something 6 days away when it's currently snowing outside, but wow, who thought we'd get such a stellar pattern out of this winter Hi 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 The Euro ensembles and mean are a thing of beauty. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awesomesauce81 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 From NWS Charleston LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... An arctic high will drop out of the Northern Plains Wednesday night, pushing a cold front into the area on Thursday. There looks to be enough moisture and forcing for scattered showers to accompany the front. The front is expected to stall just off the coast and transition into a broad baroclinic zone. A potent upper shortwave approaches on Friday, causing cyclogenesis either in the eastern Gulf of Mexico or along the Southeast coast. There are significant model differences regarding the location and track of the coastal low. The ECMWF and CMC have a much wetter solution with the low developing over the eastern Gulf and tracking up the coast. The 00Z GFS was considerably drier than its 18Z counterpart and has the low developing well off the Southeast U.S. coast, then tracking northeast. The QPF late Thursday night through Friday night will be critical because thermal profiles support some wintry precipitation. Model soundings and partial thicknesses show the potential for some freezing rain over northern and western zones late Thursday night as surface wet bulbs steadily drop. On Friday, the predominant p-type depends on which model you look at. The GFS, with its offshore low track, indicates mainly snow would occur across the majority of the area. Meanwhile, the wetter ECMWF/CMC and its closer low track show mostly rain or freezing rain on Friday, then some changeover to snow Friday night. All models show drier air moving in from the west Friday night, ending any precip by daybreak Saturday. Given that this potential event is so far in the future (Day 6), we kept things simple by introducing some freezing rain over northern areas late Thursday night, then a combination of rain and/or snow Friday and Friday night. So they're saying it's a chance for the Lowcountry 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jharv Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 2 hours ago, olafminesaw said: I appreciate your insight. Definitely just kidding around here. Hard to get excited about something 6 days away when it's currently snowing outside, but wow, who thought we'd get such a stellar pattern out of this winter Its alot easier to look 6 days ahead when 1.5 inches of rain just fell @33-34 degrees! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 GFS had the storm but a couple of days later. CMC still has it for this weekend. We're still in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beach Snow Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Canadian goes Boom!! Wow will post map in second Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 If you are hemming and hawing about losing the storm, I would not. I saved a trend GIF that storm that buried Nashville a few weeks ago. It's the clearest NW trend/amped example I've ever seen. It happens a lot. "Hey shortwave, be more amped! Be stronger! Dig a little more!" Not the hardest things to root for on modeling going forward 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Oh Canada! You guys will love this 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beach Snow Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 25 minutes ago, ILMRoss said: If you are hemming and hawing about losing the storm, I would not. I saved a trend GIF that storm that buried Nashville a few weeks ago. It's the clearest NW trend/amped example I've ever seen. It happens a lot. "Hey shortwave, be more amped! Be stronger! Dig a little more!" Not the hardest things to root for on modeling going forward Excellent point we saw how much the current storm trended NW on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 30 minutes ago, Prestige Worldwide said: Oh Canada! You guys will love this Nope, hate it. Needs to move the snow back to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Let's just hope the models get it right this far out this time. The storm we're getting today looked like a lot of snow here until 5 days out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beach Snow Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Just now, Brick Tamland said: Let's just hope the models get it right this far out this time. The storm we're getting today looked like a lot of snow here until 5 days out. Tuesday 0z should be some good tracking and trends to watch if she holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 UK has no storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 UK has no stormActually a couple inches for the outer banksSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Any euro news? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beach Snow Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 1 minute ago, StantonParkHoya said: Any euro news? Out to 141 so far doesn’t look like it’s going to do it…. Comparing to 0z it’s very suppressed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 9 minutes ago, Beach Snow said: Out to 141 so far doesn’t look like it’s going to do it…. Comparing to 0z it’s very suppressed Good, then we can get the NW trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beach Snow Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: Good, then we can get the NW trend. Agree, still promising the Canadian has the storm it didn’t too bad on todays storm. Would like to see GFS come back at 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 16 minutes ago, Beach Snow said: Out to 141 so far doesn’t look like it’s going to do it…. Comparing to 0z it’s very suppressed I mean, is there even coastal snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beach Snow Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 3 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: I mean, is there even coastal snow? Very little just on Obx like UK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Storm is still there, though. Long way to go with model runs to see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 16, 2022 Author Share Posted January 16, 2022 Everybody just stay calm and relax. I will bring you the mojo. Weather models love Bloo Q Kazoo. 3 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 5 minutes ago, lilj4425 said: Everybody just stay calm and relax. I will bring you the mojo. Weather models love Bloo Q Kazoo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beach Snow Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Euro ensemble not terrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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