CaryWx Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Just now, HKY_WX said: The main diff b/n the euro and gfs is the EURO phases the northern stream impulse with the stj impulse over Texas below. If you see the GFS start trend towards a solution where that s/w is being phased into the northern trough then you know it's caving towards the EURO. Will be interesting to watch. I didn't really see that this time on 12z gfs. The 12z euro going to be interesting to see how it continues to handle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDeac Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 I haven't looked too deep into the analogs, but this storm is giving me strong Feb 2014 vibes. Multi day event, cold air entrenched, etc. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 ***From Raleigh Perspective*** Dear lord, please deliver the 12z GFS prediction as depicted on the model. A weak system with no mixing in Raleigh and long duration of light snow Friday/Saturday. We are not greedy folks and will sacrifice a major storm with juiced QPF for this exact storm to not have mixing issues. Thank you lord, Amen 6 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 IMBY... 40hrs straight of ZR on that run...Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 The GFS wants to bring some of the southern stream system to Cabo San Lucas and I just don't see this occurring. While most models do have this energy diving a little bit the GFS is on an island with both the strength and southerly extend of this lobe of vorticity. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 2 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: ***From Raleigh Perspective*** Dear lord, please deliver the 12z GFS prediction as depicted on the model. A weak system with no mixing in Raleigh and long duration of light snow Friday/Saturday. We are not greedy folks and will sacrifice a major storm with juiced QPF for this exact storm to not have mixing issues. Thank you lord, Amen This is comparable to those dallas fans I saw praying in the stands. 1 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Another factor: 10m winds 10-15mph with 25-30mph gusts, add that with .75" of ice...Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 47 minutes ago, Snow dog said: Cant believe Justus would post that graphic (possible 8" in upstate). It's what got him in trouble in his earlier years, and really hurt his reputation.. I wasn't watching when this was posted on air, but surely it was meant to demonstrate the difficulty in forecasting due to such model disagreement, no? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 4 minutes ago, CaryWx said: I didn't really see that this time on 12z gfs. The 12z euro going to be interesting to see how it continues to handle. Yeah didn't see too much on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 6 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: The main diff b/n the euro and gfs is the EURO phases the northern stream impulse with the stj impulse over Texas below. If you see the GFS start trend towards a solution where that s/w is being phased into the northern trough then you know it's caving towards the EURO. Will be interesting to watch. Gfs struggles in these situations. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 minute ago, HKY_WX said: Yeah didn't see too much on this run. gfs does seem to be handling this whole thing in a clunky fashion run-to-run more so than how the European is managing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beach Snow Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Icon pretty consistent along with CMC Rruns 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Funny, folks seem to be down on the GFS, but Greg Fishel said he likes it better than the Euro lately. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 minute ago, Beach Snow said: Icon pretty consistent along with CMC Rruns Very similar to the GFS with the heaviest area of accumulations. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 January 23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 GEFS looks more amped through 90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said: Funny, folks seem to be down on the GFS, but Greg Fishel said he likes it better than the Euro lately. Look at the verification scores Brick. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berlin1926 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 On 1/14/2022 at 4:23 PM, Dunkman said: They’re usually very conservative I’m happy to see those snow numbers so high after today’s runs. 48 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: 30 - 50%? That's pitiful. Could the models be so inconsistent this close to a potential event because there's actually no event to occur? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Just now, wncsnow said: Look at the verification scores Brick. I'm just telling you what he said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 12 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: The main diff b/n the euro and gfs is the EURO phases the northern stream impulse with the stj impulse over Texas below. If you see the GFS start trend towards a solution where that s/w is being phased into the northern trough then you know it's caving towards the EURO. Will be interesting to watch. Indeed: 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 GEFS looking good. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 8 minutes ago, msuwx said: Indeed: I'm texting with Allan and he referenced the ukmet. Holy snow batman. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Imo, it's pretty much game over for the upstate if the baja low doesn't get mostly sucked up in to the trough. The 06z Euro still did this but it was starting to leave a tail of energy behind compared to previous runs. The 12z Nam and 12z Icon sucks it up in a similar fashion, the mostly catch it but leave a bit of a trail behind. The 12z Rgem leaves a little bit more of it behind.. longer tail, less precip. 12z GFS leaves it completely behind (so much so that it's showing a very weak secondary wave of precip from it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 15 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: Gfs struggles in these situations. Don't disagree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 minute ago, HKY_WX said: I'm texting with Allan and he referenced the ukmet. Holy snow batman. Yeah it was interesting. This is in its traditional wheelhouse, so it might be worth noting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 12z CMC is very suppressed... hardly anything so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottk Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Forecast in NE SC just changed from all snow to all freezing rain… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 One thing I'd like to add- I think sometimes everyone (mets, hobbyists, whoever) can fall into the pitfall of humanizing models too much- I see some "I trust the Euro over everything" like the Euro is a close friend you've been gossiping with, or "the GFS has been hot this month" as if the GFS is Klay Thompson. This isn't a message saying not to rely on models for known strengths and accounting for known biases- but at the end of the day every model is just a supercomputer taking in data, running it through different recipes of the same planetary laws and equations, and spitting stuff out and I think it's good not to get too caught up with the narrative behind each model. 8 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Canadian thumps ENC hard at the end of the system. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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