olafminesaw Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 The 12z GFS will be huge. Whichever direction it moves will be a big indicator of which way things are trending. I will say, I wouldn't worry too much about one run of the Euro. If nothing else, it largely rules out the possibility of over-amplification. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 4 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: Maps? I scanned the mid Atlantic forum about this storm. They have a lot of maps in discussion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leesville Wx Hawk Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 7 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said: Also can I just say screw you to Pivotal for locking a bunch of stuff that was previously free behind a paywall? Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Just let DT do it for you because he’s fired up right now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Belive it or not the 6z EPS actually ticked slightly colder at hr90 compared to 0z hr96 with both the 2m and 850mb tempsSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 RAH is in 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 4 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said: A good bit more “big dogs” in there for WNC/CLT area than Last night 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 GSP .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 230 AM EST Tuesday: An active extended is in store as models come into better agreement about a potent system entering the eastern CONUS over the weekend. Deterministic guidance is struggling to handle the system consistently, with the last 2 runs of the ECMWF finally converging on a strong cyclone affecting the Carolinas, even as latest run of the GFS begins to diverge from this solution. The CMC has consistently depicted a solution in line with the latest ECMWF. Such a solution would result in cyclogenesis along a stalled frontal boundary south and east of the forecast area, in turn producing a cyclone that shifts east too quickly to appreciably warm 850mb temps. So, precipitation develops atop bitterly cold low-level air, resulting in an all-snow solution throughout Friday night and much of Saturday. About 75% of GEFS members now depict some amount of wintry precip occurring with this system, indicating the latest dry solution from the deterministic run is an outlier; nonetheless, there remains significant uncertainty with the timing and intensity of this system, as well as what, if any, accumulations could be expected should another winter system actual materialize. In any case, the upper pattern becomes much less perturbed behind this system, and cold, dry air builds in at the surface. A weak reinforcing cold front should arrive Monday evening, but looks too dry to warrant any PoPs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 3 minutes ago, wake4est said: RAH is in GSP updated their risk map . The addition is the Significant area where is was only elevated yesterday 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthWake33 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 UKMET, CMC and GFS most recent runs all show snow for at least the eastern half of NC for Fri/Sat. 12z will be interesting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Pretty much every EPS member from that graphic is an I-85 special, very similar looking to the last system. The southeast fringe of almost every graphic is likely a wintry mix. Not looking great for Raleigh at the moment for snow. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Honestly I would take the 2-4" verbatim from the GFS at 6z and call it a day. Hopefully the amounts go up but we shall see. Overall it is still getting a handle on the suppression factor. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 looking at those ensemble members... seems like there is a lot of phased monsters. Looks like around 20 phased monsters, 15 (in the middle), and 15 weak/flat suppressed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 minute ago, eyewall said: Honestly I would take the 2-4" verbatim from the GFS at 6z and call it a day. Hopefully the amounts go up but we shall see. Overall it is still getting a handle on the suppression factor. What do you think of the step back from the 6z Control? Or do u put more stock in the 6z eps.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 29 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said: Who would have ever thought the king would bow to the jester... Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Former WRAL met Greg Fishel said yesterday he preferred the GFS lately over the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Here's the blend of the latest models. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 35 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: The 12z GFS will be huge. Whichever direction it moves will be a big indicator of which way things are trending. I will say, I wouldn't worry too much about one run of the Euro. If nothing else, it largely rules out the possibility of over-amplification. It will not be huge because we're still days out, not really even in Winter Storm Watch range. From the looks of it though, seems like one hell of an ice storm for the Carolinas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 I actually think things improved well for the Triangle on the 6z model outputs. Coupled with last night's runs there is less threat of a major ice storm and trend to more snow/sleet. 6z EPS shows a move towards gfs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 I am not seeing a big difference between the 0z EPS and the 6z EPS as far as Carolina interests are concerned. Nothing that isn't within the 'noise' range. It's definitely a little colder, but the resulting snow is largely unchanged. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Both the ECMWF Ens (M) and (C) have improved for my area over last three runs. Small changes but certainly gotten better 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 14 minutes ago, nwohweather said: It will not be huge because we're still days out, not really even in Winter Storm Watch range. From the looks of it though, seems like one hell of an ice storm for the Carolinas Read back on Sunday where ROAB gets ingested more today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 I'll take my chances with this if I were in the triangle. That's a pretty classical SLP track for central/eastern NC. The upper air pattern with the late phase also sets the stage for a bombogenesis scenario over eastern NC where you can get caught up in the deformation axis and get some stupid totals. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Seems to me the Euro continues to be extremely consistent run to runs with just minor tweaks. The overall evolution of things remains pretty much the same. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Model blends. Less ice in he Triangle metro area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jharv Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 I know most of you guys are focused on North Carolina and snow, but should I give any credence to the 12-24 hours of freezing rain/sleet that has been showing up for GA/SC on the last 4 GFS runs? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 I know most of you guys are focused on North Carolina and snow, but should I give any credence to the 12-24 hours of freezing rain/sleet that has been showing up for GA/SC on the last 4 GFS runs?I would probably lose power for a bit here in OrangeburgSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 3 minutes ago, CaryWx said: Model blends. Less ice in he Triangle metro area? That is a stronger ice signal on the NBM than I ever remember seeing leading up to our last storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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