WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 4 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Meteorologist Hunter Ward saying the storm Friday and Saturday will be in two phases with the second phase coming out of the Gulf, very slow, longer duration storm that may drop a foot of snow in WNC. No warm nose with this storm. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 13 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: What is this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 23 minutes ago, Tacoma said: Meteorologist Hunter Ward saying the storm Friday and Saturday will be in two phases with the second phase coming out of the Gulf, very slow, longer duration storm that may drop a foot of snow in WNC. No warm nose with this storm. Feb 2014 was 2 phases That Monday or Tuesday Southern and Eastern NC as well as Down towards Columbia scored 2-4” event CLT uptown had 1-2” I believe then the big dog came that Weds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 16 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: What is this? So this apparently is the 18z EPS.... which is weird because it's much further south than what the Weather bell one shows... anyone have any idea why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveRDU Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 18 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: What is this? Possibly the best graphic you’re going to see this entire week? 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: So this apparently is the 18z EPS.... which is weird because it's much further south than what the Weather bell one shows... anyone have any idea why? I think that that particular site incorporates sleet/zr into the totals 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshWeather Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 6 minutes ago, PantherJustin said: Feb 2014 was 2 phases That Monday or Tuesday Southern and Eastern NC as well as Down towards Columbia scored 2-4” event CLT uptown had 1-2” I believe then the big dog came that Weds Lived in Union County at the time. Last good snowfall of more than 1-2 inches i've seen in person. Would love those totals in Durham again this weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Are we about to get NAM'd? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beach Snow Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 10 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: Are we about to get NAM'd? Can’t tell too much but definitely looks more like euro than GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beach Snow Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 MA guys are probably going nuts. NAM drops 4-8” Thursday night before we even see the weekend storm…sheesh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 I just got Nam'd! 4"+ late Thursday night into early Friday morning and still snowing at the end of the run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 NAM looks better. I'm used to our set-ups going through a slow degradation as we go through the week. But I gotta say the speed at which we went front praying for a more amplified pattern to looking like a zr event for a lot of us really took me aback. I think that the main culprit is the northern shortwave.. see below for 12 run GFS trend. 3 days ago, that shortwave was diving into the Dakotas with a little oil and vinegar... there's been noise but you'll notice it's gotten weaker and is diving further east. Our current version doesn't dig as far, which is a lose-lose. Not only does it struggle to pop the coastal, but because it is weaker and more retreated into the polar trough, the cold press is weaker, and I think has really allowed for warmer mid levels to sneak back into the picture. I don't think over amplification is the key culprit. Sure, looks like it on the Euro, but that's the risk in playing with southern energy as the Euro currently depicts. A stronger northern shortwave in that case would bring a stronger cold press and would likely be able to throw cold water on the southern shortwave's idea of going up the coast. The NAM had an encouraging jolt westward with our energy. It may be a little late, I think "go time" is sooner than most people realize, but I think there's still some wiggle room to trend to some more positive solutions. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 NAM hands out goodies to Triad, SoVA , and RIC Thursday night and Friday morning 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Sisk Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Where is burrell2? I don’t believe I’ve seen his name in this thread. He was fantastic with the last storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beach Snow Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 4 minutes ago, ILMRoss said: NAM looks better. I'm used to our set-ups going through a slow degradation as we go through the week. But I gotta say the speed at which we went front praying for a more amplified pattern to looking like a zr event for a lot of us really took me aback. I think that the main culprit is the northern shortwave.. see below for 12 run GFS trend. 3 days ago, that shortwave was diving into the Dakotas with a little oil and vinegar... there's been noise but you'll notice it's gotten weaker and is diving further east. Our current version doesn't dig as far, which is a lose-lose. Not only does it struggle to pop the coastal, but because it is weaker and more retreated into the polar trough, the cold press is weaker, and I think has really allowed for warmer mid levels to sneak back into the picture. I don't think over amplification is the key culprit. Sure, looks like it on the Euro, but that's the risk in playing with southern energy as the Euro currently depicts. A stronger northern shortwave in that case would bring a stronger cold press and would likely be able to throw cold water on the southern shortwave's idea of going up the coast. The NAM had an encouraging jolt westward with our energy. It may be a little late, I think "go time" is sooner than most people realize, but I think there's still some wiggle room to trend to some more positive solutions. Thank you for the disco! Super helpful for us map readers!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 6 minutes ago, Tony Sisk said: Where is burrell2? I don’t believe I’ve seen his name in this thread. He was fantastic with the last storm! Burgertime is MIA, too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 18, 2022 Author Share Posted January 18, 2022 7 minutes ago, Tony Sisk said: Where is burrell2? I don’t believe I’ve seen his name in this thread. He was fantastic with the last storm! He’s viewing this thread right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 24 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: Wow I was looking at that thinking it was the Sat system, but that is the Thursday Friday deal. That would be a surorise. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beach Snow Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Icon shows a great storm and actually trended east from 18z a good bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 RGEM is setting up well for Friday too 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 36 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: Ok, so we’re all just gonna casually ignore the snow in Houston and Mexico? Lol. 2 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 GFS looks to be trending towards the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Shout out GFS this is a jolt SW with our northern shortwave just what the doctor ordered and this should be tangibly improved precipitation wise (we'll see how ptypes look) 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 0z GFS coming in with a much better solution.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 4 minutes ago, wncsnow said: GFS looks to be trending towards the Euro I was just about to say that the MA forum was dancing because the 18Z was definitely going in the Euro direction, so I assumed that we would be sad, but some surprisingly positive developments inthe NS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Good run for ENC peeps, doesn't get it done for 85 west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 The GFS push and overall air mass is markedly warmer across the Gulf/SE than the Euro too...the Euro at 90 has a massive supply of cold air back into the TN Valley whereas the GFS scenario if you amp the wave more many areas in the E Gulf Coast would see rain. Its odd seeing the GFS be the less cold model or at least have a less cold high pressure dome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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