Beach Snow Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Most LP are well offshore compared to OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Here's the eps mean over last 4 runs. Seems to hold well still if I'm reading it right. Look at the 0-line. Last four runs of the ECMWF EPS valid 12z Saturday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 On 1/17/2022 at 7:36 PM, Beach Snow said: Most LP are well offshore compared to OP Expand It's that pesky 850 track though Beach Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Need this to Amp up sooner to make it a decent event 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berlin1926 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 On 1/17/2022 at 7:27 PM, Brick Tamland said: I wonder if Fishel will change his tune about the Euro. Models are all over the place. I just hope we are not seeing a repeat of Izzy. Even though it's a different setup, it would be crushing to have the same result with the mid levels turning our snow to ice. Right now with no model consistency it's still anyone's ballgame. Expand Unfortunately, it could be nothing as well...? I.e. no storm, just cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 On 1/17/2022 at 7:39 PM, franklin NCwx said: Need this to Amp up sooner to make it a decent eventBased off what?Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beach Snow Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 On 1/17/2022 at 7:37 PM, CaryWx said: It's that pesky 850 track though Beach Expand Agree, but the further east the low is less likely the 850s creep inland…i think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 The Euro doesn't really separate the two waves where as the GFS does. The Euro develops a single low and bombs it out as phasing occurs. The GFS has a more distinct separation and delays the second vortmax a bit resulting in the weak impulse first with the FROPA followed by the main wave late in the weekend. Of course as mentioned, we know the strength of the SE ridge will play a key role here as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 On 1/17/2022 at 7:42 PM, Beach Snow said: Agree, but the further east the low is less likely the 850s creep inland…i think. Expand Sorry was referring to the path of the ULL 850 across Ga/SC and NC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 On 1/17/2022 at 7:42 PM, eyewall said: The Euro doesn't really separate the two waves where as the GFS does. The Euro develops a single low and bombs it out as phasing occurs. The GFS has a more distinct separation and delays the second vortmax a bit resulting in the weak impulse first with the FROPA followed by the main wave late in the weekend. Of course as mentioned, we know the strength of the SE ridge will play a key role here as well. Expand Let's see if the 18z gfs still has it (2 waves) that way. Any chance the euro has this wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 A part of why the last system had such profound mid-level warming which helped was the SST anomalies. The Atlantic is quite warm,. Good for amping up storms with the baroclinicity but bad for those rooting against profound warm noses. That is a factor to remember with these next ones too: 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HornetsHomer91 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 On 1/17/2022 at 6:36 PM, Sandstorm94 said: The 850s are scorched (2nd pick is 925s) Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Expand Guess what…. Remember I said Climo earlier…. (Not towards you) …. Take a look at that 850 line and tell me what it looks like? I-85…. That’s the Climo it’s not a coincidence 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 On 1/17/2022 at 7:48 PM, eyewall said: A part of why the last system had such profound mid-level warming which helped was the SST anomalies. The Atlantic is quite warm,. Good for amping up storms with the baroclinicity but bad for those rooting against profound warm noses. That is a factor to remember with these next ones too: Expand The warm nose actually underperformed in most areas and there was more sleet than ZR. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 On 1/17/2022 at 8:08 PM, wncsnow said: The warm nose actually underperformed in most areas and there was more sleet than ZR. Expand At the same time, we saw models bit by bit, speed up the timing of the changeover to sleet. Of course this had mostly go do with the storm slowing down and the ULL cutting west of the Apps. I do think in general, the models had a reasonable grasp on the temp profiles in the end. Point is, I think most of the time outcomes have more to do with the track of the low, strength of the high, etc. than bad physics of the model 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 On 1/17/2022 at 8:08 PM, wncsnow said: The warm nose actually underperformed in most areas and there was more sleet than ZR. Expand Nah the warm nose aloft was pretty well modeled. It was always a fine line between sleet and ZR. Asheville transition to sleet by midday. The reason sleet prevailed in many spots (instead of ZR) is because of the very impressive surface cold layer….in terms of actual temps and depth up to at least 925mb. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 On 1/17/2022 at 8:46 PM, msuwx said: Nah the warm nose aloft was pretty well modeled. It was always a fine line between sleet and ZR. Asheville transition to sleet by midday. The reason sleet prevailed in many spots (instead of ZR) is because of the very impressive surface cold layer….in terms of actual temps and depth up to at least 925mb. Expand I should’ve been more skeptical of freezing rain at 23 degrees as modeled by some models. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker13 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Dr. Maue makes a great point! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beach Snow Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Fwiw the 18z NAM has almost the exact same surface map as the Canadian does at 84hrs….yes yes i know it’s the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Watch the energy which is trying to phase into the southern s/w.. it's trended faster recently but if it starts reversing that trend it's going to be a bigger phase... e.g CMC/Euro runs from late Sat/early yesterday 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 On 1/17/2022 at 9:14 PM, Wow said: Watch the energy which is trying to phase into the southern s/w.. it's trended faster recently but if it starts reversing that trend it's going to be a bigger phase... e.g CMC/Euro runs from late Sat/early yesterday Expand Ok, confused again. Faster phase means more ice in central NC/SC right? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 18z ICON is a big hit for southern VA 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beach Snow Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 On 1/17/2022 at 9:48 PM, BornAgain13 said: 18z ICON is a big hit for southern VA Expand Yea looks like it shifted access more NW similar to Euro, or maybe just expanded precipitation coverage 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 On 1/17/2022 at 9:48 PM, Beach Snow said: Yea looks like it shifted access more NW similar to Euro, or maybe just expanded precipitation coverageExpanded with a slight NW shiftSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 I got a feeling this is gonna be icy...Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Little better CAD push at 102...Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 First wave looks to give C/ENC a couple light inchesSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beach Snow Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 18z GFS separating the 2 systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beach Snow Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 18Z GFS second wave for Sunday is SE of 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 And the 18z GFS continues to be opposite of the EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 On 1/17/2022 at 10:17 PM, BornAgain13 said: And the 18z GFS continues to be opposite of the EURO. Expand One of the 2 will cave in a run or 2. I am betting on the GFS to cave this time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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