CaryWx Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 I'd like to see this happen and not be overdone, but we'll know in about 18hrs or so. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mclean02 Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 16 minutes ago, WXNewton said: I like the look of precip starting to streak through the ATL area. I know this is probably not hitting the ground but it does seem to be building in intensity. No model has that moisture that far north. Maybe something to watch for light snow to breakout in parts of WNC later this afternoon. I thought the models only show what reaches the ground so maybe that's why it didn't show that ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
27596WXNUT Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 I know it can’t be taken verbatim but I feel like we get a pretty good thump tonight based on the NAM here in Franklin County. I’m about 3 miles east of Youngsville. Figure maybe we can squeeze out a solid 3-5 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlh Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 Starting to see some very light returns on the radar between Charlotte & Richmond, and it looks like some fill in down by Jacksonville, NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 10 minutes ago, 27596WXNUT said: I know it can’t be taken verbatim but I feel like we get a pretty good thump tonight based on the NAM here in Franklin County. I’m about 3 miles east of Youngsville. Figure maybe we can squeeze out a solid 3-5 here. That's what I'm thinking, too. 3 should be on the low end here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 12z FV3 looks nice. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 12Z Nam 3K thermals are very close to sleet at onset for Wake. I do think we see a little sleet to start and then enough cool down to transition to snow. HRRR thermals are a little cooler at mid levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fig Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 3 minutes ago, WXNewton said: 12z FV3 looks nice. The line right along the coast of ZR vs rain always amazes me. Also, those $2 burritos sound nice too! 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoAPPS Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 FYI, light snow has broken out in parts of the mountains, not depicted on any model. It could bode well for those downstream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 47 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: They've done a great job with this storm, given the hand they've been dealt. Agreed- didn’t panic and have only changed their call map from 3-4”, to 1-2”, to 2-3”. A spread of 1-4” is not bad considering the hand we’ve been dealt the last 36 hours. Looks like we’re locked in to a 2-4” storm for many in central/eastern NC and I hope everyone on here enjoys every second of it even if 6”+ Maps from a few days ago don’t happen and it’s unlikely they will. This will be our best storm since January 2018 (I hate the December storm bc it snowed only at night and poured rain here all day while places 20 miles away got dumped on all day). This frankly given the cold air and chance for rapid accumulation will be a fantastic storm regardless our final tally 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leesville Wx Hawk Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 8 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Agreed- didn’t panic and have only changed their call map from 3-4”, to 1-2”, to 2-3”. A spread of 1-4” is not bad considering the hand we’ve been dealt the last 36 hours. Looks like we’re locked in to a 2-4” storm for many in central/eastern NC and I hope everyone on here enjoys every second of it even if 6”+ Maps from a few days ago don’t happen and it’s unlikely they will. This will be our best storm since January 2018 (I hate the December storm bc it snowed only at night and poured rain here all day while places 20 miles away got dumped on all day). This frankly given the cold air and chance for rapid accumulation will be a fantastic storm regardless our final tally We live 4 miles NE of RDU and really didn’t transition to rain in that December event plus got 2 more the next day for a total of 10 plus. My oldest son was at NCSU at the time and only got like 3 . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leesville Wx Hawk Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 I’m hoping that we all squeeze out more I this one since it is quite cold and trending a little better! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 Just now, Leesville Wx Hawk said: We live 4 miles NE of RDU and really didn’t transition to rain in that December event plus got 2 more the next day for a total of 10 plus. My oldest son was at NCSU at the time and only got like 3 . Yea we were in between. Happy we got the 6.5” we did but man it was frustrating seeing posters near you seeing snow most of the day while mine turned to puddles in the downpour. We only picked up a dusting too the next day, that missed us to the north and west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 4 counties in SC have WSWs now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 NAM upped totals slightly for a more expansive area but man someone is going to be hurt on the NW edge of where the shield sets up. 0-3” pretty dang fast. Gradient looks to setup between Greensboro and Durham. Overall very little shift in precip edge. ICON actually backed off fairly significantly 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 I wouldn't be surprised to see RAH upgrade Wake to a WSW later. It might be one of those as the situation unfolds things. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 5 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: I wouldn't be surprised to see RAH upgrade Wake to a WSW later. It might be one of those as the situation unfolds things. They are not going to budge until the precip shield becomes established. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ragtop50 Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 RAH update, mentions the updates to warnings would later if done .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 930 AM Friday... Just minor changes this morning as we await a full suite of new 12z- initialized guidance. Observational datasets confirm the near term forecast trends. The latest surface analysis shows the frigid high nosing strongly down through central NC with plenty of dry air advection, including single-digit dewpoints just to our N. Skies are just cloudy, with radar showing spotty elevated returns across the S half, although most of this is likely not reaching the ground given the somewhat dry subcloud layer noted on 12z soundings. Will maintain low chance pops across the SE well into the afternoon, before trending pops up with a NW expansion as we approach the evening. Any changes to the advisory or warning will wait a few more hours when further high res guidance can be fully considered. Expect temps to hold firm or rise just a degree or two today, yielding daytime highs of 27-34. Current brisk winds from the NNE and NE with occasional gusts to around 20-25 mph will persist through the day as the dense air pours in with a strong ageostrophic component, which will keep wind chills in the upper teens to mid 20s for much of the day. -GIH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 7 minutes ago, eyewall said: They are not going to budge until the precip shield becomes established. Apparently no one else is either Even with the trends for 2.5 runs of 90% of Models Brad went backwards on our totals lol he had me in 1-2” now he’s like yea may not even see. Flake …. Ummmm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
85snowline Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 6 minutes ago, PantherJustin said: Apparently no one else is either Even with the trends for 2.5 runs of 90% of Models Brad went backwards on our totals lol he had me in 1-2” now he’s like yea may not even see. Flake …. Ummmm We better see white considering these crazy winds and a current temperature of 29 imby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
85snowline Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 1 hour ago, jlh said: Starting to see some very light returns on the radar between Charlotte & Richmond, and it looks like some fill in down by Jacksonville, NC. What radar are you watching? Ty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottk Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 4 counties in SC have WSWs now.All magically to the west of I-95, like always! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 GFS seems settled in. All noise now. Probably last global we should look at. I’m not messing with the RAPs and all that bullshit. It’s radar and window watching time. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
palmettosnow Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 Actually seven counties in SC now under WSW: Chesterfield, Lancaster, Kershaw, Lee, Marlboro, Darlington and DIllon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 Enjoy everyone. It’s not often that Eastern NC and middle SC gets a major snowfall. Congrats. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 I'm also watching the temperatures. Here in southern Wake I'm up to 30.4. Most of the news stations were saying we'd be in the upper 20s all day. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 ITS THE WONDER OF NATURE BABY!!! Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JQPublic Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 1 hour ago, jlh said: Starting to see some very light returns on the radar between Charlotte & Richmond, and it looks like some fill in down by Jacksonville, NC. My friend in Brevard confirming flurries there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 I think the GFS wants to develop a bit of banding, especially against the transition zone to IP/ZR. That wouldn't be unusual. To the north it is better ratios getting the job done. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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