eyewall Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 2 minutes ago, Midnight Moon said: Transition period was too slow compared to modeling. They haven't been to the school of NC weather with cold chasing the moisture. 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 1 minute ago, burgertime said: NAM is really sticking to its guns on this one. It's really anyone's guess how this plays out. Will be a true nowcast situation. As good as the NAM and 3k are with temperatures, as you said, this is such a delicate situation that a degree or two changes everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlh Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 7 minutes ago, alhooks13 said: How did forecasts end up being so wrong? The flawed predictions can be traced to computer model errors and the inability of human forecasters to adequately account for them. When fronts come in from the north and west, models sometimes have a bias of drawing in cold air too quickly. Some of our biggest winter storm busts over the years have occurred when we’ve accepted model forecasts indicating temperatures would rapidly cool to near freezing with rain changing to snow. In short, we probably should have been more skeptical of the models. But we gave them considerable credence since they had done a good job with the other events this month. Notably, they nailed the Jan. 3 snow forecast the day after it was 63 degrees. Not to mention you have to factor in local effects whether it be tertiary or other considerations, model biases & weaknesses, model resolution issues with terrain influence and know just what items models are not programed to account for in the local/regional environment. Too many folks these days see the models as a tell all when they are just meant as a tool for professional interpretation. Lot more goes into it that the public doesn't realize. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 SREF isn't that bad looking for NC. Most of this moisture is snow. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 2 minutes ago, USCG RS said: As good as the NAM and 3k are with temperatures, as you said, this is such a delicate situation that a degree or two changes everything. Biggest factor is the phasing of energy. NAM just doesn't get it done. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJsnow89 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Hearing 18z RGEM is a beauty 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdawg10 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Just now, NJsnow89 said: Hearing 18z RGEM is a beauty https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1484271620600610822?t=fCxNlxZcUJDGLmrCMHxgEA&s=19 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 How good is the RGEM at this range? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beach Snow Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Great better than the NAM 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Here is the 18Z RGEM: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 2 minutes ago, CaryWx said: How good is the RGEM at this range? Used to be the gold standard. Not quite as good as it used to be, however, it is still pretty deadly in this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 I think Wake eastward is good for 3 to 5, and NE NC and SE VA 6 to 8. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowinnc Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 1 minute ago, USCG RS said: Used to be the gold standard. Not quite as good as it used to be, however, it is still pretty deadly in this range. Better than the NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunBlade Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 18z RGEM actually has lower totals for nearly all of NC and SC outside of the NE corner of NC into VA. Still looks better than the NAM, but moving toward lower totals isn't the trend I would want to see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 2 minutes ago, snowinnc said: Better than the NAM? I still think it is better than the NAM 12k. The NAM 3k in this range may be better with temp profiles, whereas the RGEM - in my opinion - is better regarding precip placement and strength, as well as LP placement. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1484274674309677061?s=20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 It was only a 1/2 inch on average lower than the 12z run. The overall coverage area was fairly consistent. It essentially held serve for this region. It increased a bit just NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 GFS is strong for the thump tonight. Way more snow farther west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTPGiants Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 I'd trade all of this storm for the fantasy GFS storm next weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunBlade Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 GFS decreased totals by about 1/2 inch for many areas and even more for some. Northern wave was a little weaker and looks much like the 18z RGEM overall with slightly lower totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 18z GFS isn't as wet but it did look a tick better with the phasing to me. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Just now, wake4est said: Cash me Out 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 3+ is warning criteria for Raleigh. I'll take it. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 4 minutes ago, eyewall said: 3+ is warning criteria for Raleigh. I'll take it. Would not shock me to hit that tomorrow. Gut feeling ratios will bring us to the promised land 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 10 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: Cash me Out Exactly…. I’m driving and having f to read the forum for updates…. For CLT metro (I-77 anyway) RGEM/GFS both have 1-3” range…. MILES better than when I went to bed last night 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Just now, NorthHillsWx said: Would not shock me to hit that tomorrow. Gut feeling ratios will bring us to the promised land Yeah it will be interesting to see how much frozen sneaks in tonight before the main round. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 I'm not sold on anything that noticeable for Wake with tonight's first round. Cold chasing moisture and it looks like limited moisture by the time temperatures get low enough for anything appreciable. As for the main round tomorrow, it's going to be really close with how far west the main precipitation gets... It is going to be painful for someone... I'm going 1-3" across Wake. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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