Leesville Wx Hawk Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Big Weather did not blink but Mike is leaning with the most recent trends. Hopefully the GFS comes in line with the European. If all we are looking at is tomorrow night, I’m hoping for a surprise 1-1.5 “ just to have something to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 1 minute ago, Avdave said: You have been this way for a long time here. Its just weather. If it happens good, if it doesnt, life goes on. Get a grip on reality I used to think he was just a kid so I’d cut him some slack. That was 13 years ago. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 If the GFS comes in like the rgem and icon , you folks in the triangle might be back in the game... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTPGiants Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 4 minutes ago, Midnight Moon said: I did not know this. So why so much angst? I recall about a year ago someone put up verification scores of GFS and despite everyone discounting the 18Z it turned out they were all about equal. So data ingestion aside, I'm not sure it's a good reason to just discard a run because it's a mid-run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshWeather Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 1 minute ago, StantonParkHoya said: I used to think he was just a kid so I’d cut him some slack. That was 13 years ago. im surprised the heavy sanitarium talk gets allowed in this thread. Back when i posted here more regularly years ago, if you talked about busts and what not in this type of thread, you'd get bopped back to the stone age. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Just now, RTPGiants said: I recall about a year ago someone put up verification scores of GFS and despite everyone discounting the 18Z it turned out they were all about equal. So data ingestion aside, I'm not sure it's a good reason to just discard a run because it's a mid-run. I thought the whole data ingestion myth had been dispelled on here some time ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 3 minutes ago, Avdave said: You have been this way for a long time here. Its just weather. If it happens good, if it doesnt, life goes on. Get a grip on reality I agree. But it still doesn't mean it's crazy to either have the Euro be totally off or have the NAM make such a dramatic change in 12 hours and only 48 hours out. It's just a message board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 3 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: I used to think he was just a kid so I’d cut him some slack. That was 13 years ago. Well, I started posting when I was 2. 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdawg10 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Just now, Brick Tamland said: I agree. But it still doesn't mean it's crazy to either have the Euro be totally off or have the NAM make such a dramatic change in 12 hours and only 48 hours out. It's just a message board. why is it crazy? this is not the first time or will it be the last. You know how hard it is to forecast winter weather down south. Model chaos is almost expected. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 5 minutes ago, wxdawg10 said: why is it crazy? this is not the first time or will it be the last. You know how hard it is to forecast winter weather down south. Model chaos is almost expected. It's a lot better that it's snow instesd of something like a tornado outbreak catching people off guard. I just think in this day and age the technology should be better to have such differences in the models and such dramatic changes this close to go time and. But it is what it is. It will either snow or not. Maybe it would be better to just wait and see what happens instesd of trying to see what the models show might happen. Anyway, Dr Rick says no more talking about how awful the models are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 14 minutes ago, Avdave said: Major winter storm in the Triangle? What is she looking at? Maybe for Elizabeth City. Not Triangle the viewing area. I suspect points around Rocky Mount are going to get a bigger hit. I appreciated her info on why they didn't give in to the short range models right now. As always the northwest trend seems to happen in these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 If the models were always right, there would be little fun in meteorology (at least the forecasting aspect of it). We could all just look at what our weather apps printed out and go about our day. The learning, the chasing, the gut instincts, and the insight from years of studying this awesome, dynamic, always-changing atmosphere....that's what makes forecasting fun. Forecasting winter weather is hands-down the most difficult and complex forecasting I do. But those are the same reasons it is my favorite type of forecasting. I welcome the challenge and always try to come away a little wiser from each system. Enjoy the ride. Learn. Be fascinated by the atmosphere. ....We now return you to your regularly-scheduled programming... 14 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshWeather Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said: It's a lot better that it's snow instesd of something looe a tornado outbreak catching people off guard. I just think in this day and age the technology should be better to have such differences in the models and such dramatic changes this close to go time and. But it is what it is. It will either snow or not. Maybe it would be better to just wait and see what happens instesd of trying to see what the models show might happen. comparing the ability to forecast snow correctly in this climate to tornado outbreaks shows just how out of touch you are. Seriously, take your whining about the models to the sanitarium thread. People are in this thread for actual discussion of what the models are showing and the actual storm 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 7 minutes ago, JoshWeather said: comparing the ability to forecast snow correctly in this climate to tornado outbreaks shows just how out of touch you are. Seriously, take your whining about the models to the sanitarium thread. People are in this thread for actual discussion of what the models are showing and the actual storm Yet you still replied. And I was just stating the fact that it is a good thing they are not as bad at predicting tornado outbreaks as they are winter storms here. And I said I was done talking about it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJsnow89 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Any word on the gfs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Can't we all just get along? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 GFS is East. Not great folks. edit: at least through 48 it was, although it may actually be a touch better organized 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Just now, StantonParkHoya said: GFS is East. Not great folks. So were not back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 The GFS isn't bad at all. Still has decent QPF in central NC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 GFS ain't bad for folks east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 3 minutes ago, NJsnow89 said: Any word on the gfs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowbird1230 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Much less snow coverage than 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 I feel like the 00 GFS was improvement over 18Z 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 I'll take itSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said: GFS ain't bad for folks east Yep jacksonville, Washington, and towns towards the Crystal Coast will get the 2-4" from the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 I feel like the 00 GFS was improvement over 18ZIt was, compare below:Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Kucheras look better than general snowfall map. Is this because the kuchera is showing ratios higher than 10:1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 18 minutes ago, CaryWx said: Not Triangle the viewing area. I suspect points around Rocky Mount are going to get a bigger hit. I appreciated her info on why they didn't give in to the short range models right now. As always the northwest trend seems to happen in these parts. she did mention the triangle area. "We will still see impactful winter weather and accumulations on Thursday night (including the Triangle) and parts of our viewing area will still see a major winter storm Friday" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VABILLUPS1 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Well if there’s any question we’re going to find out about these models in these next couple of days. NAM-GFS vs RGEM/CMC/ECMWF/ICON/UK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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