downeastnc Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Need that SN/IP line to drift another 50 miles south to really make me feel safe....insane 22 at the surface...... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 1 minute ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: NAM says bye bye storm What are you looking at? I'm watching the NAM and it is getting cranked up with the precip shield by 9Z 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 And usually the NAM is juicy. Smh, nail in coffin for most of the board. Wow, the models are struggling lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Don’t look at the NAM of you wanted warm and fuzzy feelings to start 18z 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 18z NAM continued the drying trendSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 The 18Z NAM doesn't look much different than 6Z to this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Wow. I didn't expect the NAM to just completely whiff.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 1 minute ago, PackGrad05 said: What are you looking at? I'm watching the NAM and it is getting cranked up with the precip shield by 9Z It literally develops a lp from the front Friday morning then nothing afterwards. There is no storm. Just mood flakes in Raleigh and light accumulation east of there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Storms will always take path of least resistance and that is some really cold air it has to fight to head north west. Without phasing to lift it the NAM looks right to my eyes. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Better hope the NAM is on drugs or we are in trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Just now, burgertime said: Storms will always take path of least resistance and that is some really cold air it has to fight to head north west. Without phasing to lift it the NAM looks right to my eyes. That cold and dry air is killing it.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 One thing to note if that confluence to the NE can move out faster that increases chances...but again without phasing this looks pretty plausible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Greg Fishel mentioned this several times. He said that it could be an innocent frontal passage. The 2 pieces of energy don't phase enough and the trailing impulse is weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Everything we are all saying is summarized in 1 sentence... "That escalated quickly." 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker13 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Corpus Christi gets slammed this run while we get nothing ... demoralizing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 No worries guys... its getting late... But there always the ICON. AKA the ugly girl at the bar. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 May have to delete this thread since there literally may not be a storm. Don’t want to remember this one. Good lord! I get this was/is a complex setup but to go from this morning’s runs to now inside 36 hours is insane!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Just now, PackGrad05 said: Greg Fishel mentioned this several times. He said that it could be an innocent frontal passage. The 2 pieces of energy don't phase enough and the trailing impulse is weaker. I'm really curious what happens Friday it looks like this could be the rare case where it isn't just cold air chasing moisture especially for CNC and ENC. It may be a little surprise thump. Also due to the cold front one of the NAM doesn't really mean anything at the end of the day, just looks about right. Still think that shield of precip is probably bigger than NAM is showing but that may not help too much. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 From a huge storm on the global models to nothing here in less than 12 hours and only 48 hours out. Going to be hard to trust the models at all outside 24 hours after this one. This is a Falcons against the Pats in the Super Bowl level of collapse. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 3 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: Greg Fishel mentioned this several times. He said that it could be an innocent frontal passage. The 2 pieces of energy don't phase enough and the trailing impulse is weaker. And he also said this morning it looked like a good snowstorm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 1 minute ago, HKY_WX said: No worries guys... its getting late... But there always the ICON. AKA the ugly girl at the bar. It's crazy accurate here. So to europeans it's the hot babe next to the Euro though it repeatedly turns down my drink offers. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 18z was a FROPA. Wow this is definitely a gut punch. We don't get enough opportunities to keep this crap up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Just now, eyewall said: 18z was a FROPA. Wow this is definitely a gut punch. We don't get enough opportunities to keep this crap up. This is the most depressing map ever. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Just one run. The NAM is currently alone with this drastic scenario. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Makes me wonder if the globals just don't know how to handle our climate anymore. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 May have to delete this thread since there literally may not be a storm. Don’t want to remember this one. Good lord! I get this was/is a complex setup but to go from this morning’s runs to now inside 36 hours is insane!!!We didn't delete the last thread we don't delete this one because we still have the FROPASent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 NAM is the outlier at the moment. Not sure if I would put a ton of stock into it yet until it gets support from elsewhere. Frontal passages and waves of low pressure are so hard to forecast.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Just now, eyewall said: 18z was a FROPA. Wow this is definitely a gut punch. We don't get enough opportunities to keep this crap up. Worst part is, it's such a good setup. At least the pattern seems to be reloading so there's always the next one of it his doesn't turn out good. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshWeather Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 2 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: From a huge storm on the global models to nothing here in less than 12 hours and only 48 hours out. Going to be hard to trust the models at all outside 24 hours after this one. This is a Falcons against the Pats in the Super Bowl level of collapse. i've seen you post this numerous times now. You've been here for over a decade. If you think not trusting the models outside of 24 hours(heck, even closer than that) is something new...then you haven't been paying attention. I couldn't count the number of storms on all my fingers and toes over the past decade that showed a hefty snow only to completely dissipate on the models over the last few days. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Just now, burgertime said: Worst part is, it's such a good setup. At least the pattern seems to be reloading so there's always the next one of it his doesn't turn out good. What used to work doesn't apply to our climate now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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