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January 20-22 “bring the mojo” winter storm threat


lilj4425
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I do have to say that I am truly shocked and stunned as a professional meteorologist to see such a violent shift in the weather models from 11pm/12am Tuesday night Wednesday morning to the data this morning and at midday. I have been doing this for more than 25 years and I have to tell you that this shift is dramatic and quite sudden.
 

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2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Also in twitter.  He is actually a pretty good met in Richmond area (just ask him), but also a first class jerk.  Does a pretty good job of explaining his reasoning but don't dare disagree with him or he'll call you names like a 7 year old

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5 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I do have to say that I am truly shocked and stunned as a professional meteorologist to see such a violent shift in the weather models from 11pm/12am Tuesday night Wednesday morning to the data this morning and at midday. I have been doing this for more than 25 years and I have to tell you that this shift is dramatic and quite sudden.
 

Glad I'm not the only one. 

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9 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I do have to say that I am truly shocked and stunned as a professional meteorologist to see such a violent shift in the weather models from 11pm/12am Tuesday night Wednesday morning to the data this morning and at midday. I have been doing this for more than 25 years and I have to tell you that this shift is dramatic and quite sudden.
 

I wasn't so much shocked because, in my personal experience, this is playing out as expected. Phasing of the northern and southern stream is not well handled. When a cold front pushes through and stalls, in this case, it is hard for anyone west of 77 to get anything from this system without a strong coastal low. Eastern NC, especially NE NC is the place to be.

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2 minutes ago, WxJordan said:

I wasn't so much shocked because, in my personal experience, this is playing out as expected. Phasing of the northern and southern stream is not well handled. When a cold front pushes through and stalls, in this case, it is hard for anyone west of 77 to get anything from this system without a strong coastal low. Eastern NC, especially NE NC is the place to be.

Yeah, but the models started cutting totals drastically even from Raleigh east from just last night and early this morning to midday.  

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607753aa-95cb-461b-a263-5dc9298994f8.gif.4964c3a2bb0d9b2476491b75f2a02c43.gif

4 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

Yeah, but the models started cutting totals drastically even from Raleigh east from just last night and early this morning to midday.  

The NWS blend has been relatively consistent...

If anything the major change has been to push the storm further east away from the Mountains, which makes sense.

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RAH is holding

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
313 PM EST Wed Jan 19 2022

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>077-083-200930-
/O.CON.KRAH.WS.A.0002.220121T0000Z-220122T1200Z/
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-
Orange-Durham-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-
Wake-Johnston-Wilson-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Anson-
Including the cities of Roxboro, Oxford, Creedmoor, Henderson,
Kittrell, Warrenton, Norlina, Roanoke Rapids, Enfield,
Scotland Neck, Winston-Salem, Greensboro, High Point, Burlington,
Graham, Mebane, Hillsborough, Chapel Hill, Carrboro, Durham,
Rougemont, Louisburg, Franklinton, Nashville, Spring Hope,
Rocky Mount, Tarboro, Princeville, Lexington, Thomasville,
Asheboro, Archdale, Siler City, Pittsboro, Raleigh, Cary, Apex,
Wake Forest, Knightdale, Smithfield, Selma, Clayton, Wilson,
Albemarle, Troy, Southern Pines, Pinehurst, Aberdeen, Carthage,
Sanford, Lillington, Angier, Buies Creek, Erwin, Dunn, Wadesboro,
and Polkton
313 PM EST Wed Jan 19 2022

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Snow. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 5 inches. In
  addition, ice accumulations of a light glaze possible.

* WHERE...Portions of central North Carolina.

* WHEN...From Thursday evening through Saturday morning.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.
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