HornetsHomer91 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 To my untrained Eye GFS on the Vort maps tried to sync up a bit but just never happens…. I’m still learning though so idk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 12Z GFS is colder for sure with a lot less ZR. Saves us from complete cliff jump. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 On 1/19/2022 at 3:59 PM, olafminesaw said: Expand Looks good, just smaller totals than the Euro had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greendave Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 I'll leave this here....posted at 11am. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 On 1/19/2022 at 4:05 PM, greendave said: I'll leave this here....posted at 11am. Expand That map is stupid. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HornetsHomer91 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Guess maybe that small Interaction made a slight difference…. No disrespect I didn’t see a NW trend though 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowinnc Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 On 1/19/2022 at 4:01 PM, NorthHillsWx said: GFS held serve. Beggars can’t be choosers, yes totals are not super high but RDU looks really good for a 2-4” snowfall and temps in the 20’s STILL despite the doom and gloom here. That would be an awesome storm Expand Check, please. Dinner is on me for the RDU folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Yeah I don't get the doom and gloom either. A decent snow for Wake County is anything over an inch. That's just reality. This system is still shaping up to be a nice system, especially with temperatures, preceding soil temps, etc... Snow sticking will not be an issue so I don't think we lose anything to melting. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justicebork Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 On 1/19/2022 at 4:05 PM, PantherJustin said: Guess maybe that small Interaction made a slight difference…. No disrespect I didn’t see a NW trend though Expand Everybody here knows better than me, but I don't see it either. That's a point in time analysis of a light to moderate, long duration event. Run that analysis 6 hours later and I'm not sure you'll see a NW trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 On 1/19/2022 at 4:05 PM, PantherJustin said: Guess maybe that small Interaction made a slight difference…. No disrespect I didn’t see a NW trend though Expand He might end up being right, but nothing on the models suggested anything he has been saying the last few days until this morning. Up until now all the globals were pretty much the same with the storm the last couple of days. If he's right it'll be based on "Oh, it always shifts NW" more than anything else. I think he's been doing some bittercasting during this one for some reason. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 On 1/19/2022 at 4:09 PM, PackGrad05 said: Yeah I don't get the doom and gloom either. A decent snow for Wake County is anything over an inch. That's just reality. This system is still shaping up to be a nice system, especially with temperatures, preceding soil temps, etc... Snow sticking will not be an issue so I don't think we lose anything to melting. Expand ^^^this. We were looking at a 1-3” sleet storm 2 days ago now, a 2-4” snowstorm with arctic air and high ratios. I see nothing cataclysmic from the modeling at this point. Definitely on edge but we’re still in a good spot 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greendave Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Brad P. on board 4-6" bullseye on RDU - extending west to Burlington, as far south as fayetteville. 2-4" ring from GSO down to NW and W side of CLT. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justicebork Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Icon has the moisture but that comes with a price - a pretty brutal cut off at I-85 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 On 1/19/2022 at 4:11 PM, Brick Tamland said: He might end up being right, but nothing on the models suggested anything he has been saying until this morning. Up until now all the globals were pretty much the same with the storm the last couple of days. I think he's been doing some bittercasting during this one for some reason. Expand He could and betting the sleet-streak for Raleigh is not unwise. That said there was a slight expansion back west on the gfs from 06z but not really a nw trend that I could see. BTW, that snow chances chart from WRAL has a 52.5% chance of being correct. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 On 1/19/2022 at 4:12 PM, NorthHillsWx said: ^^^this. We were looking at a 1-3” sleet storm 2 days ago now, a 2-4” snowstorm with arctic air and high ratios. I see nothing cataclysmic from the modeling at this point. Definitely on edge but we’re still in a good spot Expand Yeah, feel like the Triangle is almost playing with house money here to a certain extent 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phishbfm Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Brad's vlog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 On 1/19/2022 at 4:17 PM, CaryWx said: He could and betting the sleet-streak for Raleigh is not unwise. That said there was a slight expansion back west on the gfs from 06z but not really a nw trend that I could see. BTW, that snow chances chart from WRAL has a 52.5% chance of being correct. Expand WRAL is becoming silly with these percentages and maps. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 On 1/19/2022 at 3:27 PM, Brick Tamland said: You would think the globals would be better 22 years later. Expand Lol for real...i think those hoping for that sort of bust/miracle are kidding themselves. That's not to say it can't or won't be a fairly decent snow for eastern areas in the end though On 1/19/2022 at 3:33 PM, VARTV said: ANYTHING can happen in 36 hours. It'll rain in VB and snow everywhere else! LOL Expand The good news for the eastern folks it won't take much correction at all the other way to undo a lot of the damage. Heck it wouldn't take much of one to give western areas a little something again but its really remarkable and frustrating the models have performed this poorly. On 1/19/2022 at 3:44 PM, olafminesaw said: Funny how WAA aloft disappears as soon as you need it most Expand Or a stronger Atlantic ridge, nw trend or literally everything that screws everyone with 90% of storms around these parts. It just figures it would do this when for once we will have a super wedge..it all feels like a cruel joke..especially for those who didn't see much with the last system. Maybe ill get lucky and get some freezing drizzle this time...sigh. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 RAP looks good for Charlotte northeast through the VA tidewater. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 GFS ensemble mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King of Surl Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 I live on the SE side of Roxboro, so if you know you know. I am getting the four-wheeler and truck gassed up and the barn ready for the horses and ready to hunker down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 On 1/19/2022 at 4:28 PM, Brick Tamland said: GFS ensemble mean Expand Do you have the 6z for comparison? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 CMC coming in even more supressed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 On 1/19/2022 at 4:34 PM, BornAgain13 said: CMC coming in even more supressed... Expand Than what. Other models, its last run, ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justicebork Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 On 1/19/2022 at 4:34 PM, BornAgain13 said: CMC coming in even more supressed... Expand It finally gets going at HR 66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 I'd say almost half of these look good for the Triangle folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 On 1/19/2022 at 4:35 PM, PackGrad05 said: Than what. Other models, its last run, ?Comparing 0z to 12zSent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker13 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 On 1/19/2022 at 4:34 PM, BornAgain13 said: CMC coming in even more supressed... Expand Looks like a flizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 On 1/19/2022 at 4:39 PM, BornAgain13 said: Comparing 0z to 12z Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Expand Cuts the totals almost in half. Yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 I guess we need Webber to be right about that NW trend now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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