VABILLUPS1 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 12z NAM - two words for SE Virginia - GOOD GOD 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlh Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 17 minutes ago, Stormpc said: Who knows. I'm thinking we're not going to have any road issues until it gets below 30 and that is not going to happen until Friday evening. Round one is not going to produce any problems. It's round two gets going earlier it's likely going to be on the south side and more sleet Friday morning with temps 33-35. Maybe colder up the peninsula. 3k NAM, Euro and GFS have the 2M temp below OC between 0Z and 6Z Friday (Thursday evening) at Moyock and HR so I am thinking if that holds true, most of the night below freezing with the ground already near freezing should allow for surfaces to freeze by the middle of the night. NWS is calling for temps just above freezing later on Friday briefly, but models aren't agreeing with that and if enough frozen precip falls before that point it likely won't make it above 0C at the surface. Lots of unknowns for sure but erring on the side of caution because of that and data pointing to a Thursday night freeze, that's what I am going with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Hope yall get hammered down this way. Rooting for you guys. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 If this falls apart 48 hours out the globals will never be trusted again for winter storms around here. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker13 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Don't you want El Nino for super phased events? I thought Nina created a weaker subtropical jet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 24 minutes ago, PantherJustin said: Nah…. Maybe 1/4” - 1/3” but Models always over do ice This might be a rare case in which the emphatic statement is probably true. I think most people on this board would agree - ice progs just don't usually pan out in reality. That should be good news. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdawg10 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 2 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: If this falls apart 48 hours out the globals will never be trusted again for winter storms around here. Dude..you sing this same song everytime. Models are tools. experienced Mets who are paid for this look at science not just models. stop living and dying by models and their effectiveness. 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
85snowline Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 26 minutes ago, PantherJustin said: I can only speak for myself but I believe he’s using a bit of experience with these systems…. How they act Or “Overachieve” in overrunning ect. I didn’t even realize he’d been in CLT on WBTV as long as anyone I guess bc he’s in the morning I never noticed but he’s also been there since I was a kid like BP,Crum,East,EricT(Retired). He is the new Chief Meteorologist at WBTV. But noone can replace Eric Thomas!!! However Al Conklin has been known to be a snow lover!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
85snowline Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 My 9yr old niece lives in Durham and really hoping y'all get slammed in the Triangle!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Gonna be honest and maybe this is my inner weenie but I'm tossing that NAM run. As it was progressing on 5h I thought precip would hold serve. The precip shield at 21z Friday looked suspiciously dry. 3 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 12z HRW FV3 is pretty much a swing and a miss for everyone. 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 3 minutes ago, wxdawg10 said: Dude..you sing this same song everytime. Models are tools. experienced Mets who are paid for this look at science not just models. stop living and dying by models and their effectiveness. Just saying when all the globals line up 48 hours out and if it doesn't happen that's not a good look. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VABILLUPS1 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 About 30 hours continuous snow on the 12z NAM for SE Virginia from around midnight Friday to Saturday morning - model now combines the FROPA snow and the 2nd wave. Close to an all-timer if it verifies. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 2 minutes ago, ILMRoss said: Gonna be honest and maybe this is my inner weenie but I'm tossing that NAM run. As it was progressing on 5h I thought precip would hold serve. The precip shield at 21z Friday looked suspiciously dry. I'm afraid it's now a trend over the last couple of cycles. 6z RGEM, 6z NAM, and 12z NAM all went in that direction. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 8 minutes ago, Bevo said: This might be a rare case in which the emphatic statement is probably true. I think most people on this board would agree - ice progs just don't usually pan out in reality. That should be good news. Thanks y'all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlh Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 3 minutes ago, VABILLUPS1 said: About 30 hours continuous snow on the 12z NAM for SE Virginia from around midnight Friday to Saturday morning - model now combines the FROPA snow and the 2nd wave. Close to an all-timer if it verifies. No kidding, I can't recall an event that lasted that long in HR if that verifies. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 I’ll be honest- this is a tough one. We’re relying on a low and precip to literally pop overhead as the energy is passing by. No way any model will have a good handle on exactly when that will happen 48 hours out. Literally a few hours makes a huge difference. Not like there will be a precipitation shield moving through the south we/models can hone in on before it gets here. If I’m west of the Triangle, I’m sweating now. Triangle has the nerves on edge after living rent free yesterday. NE NC and SE VA feeling pretty awesome 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 17 minutes ago, VABILLUPS1 said: 12z NAM - two words for SE Virginia - GOOD GOD An amazing run for that area. Just hours and hours of light-moderate snow. Would be an incredible event 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EverythingisEverything Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 7 minutes ago, VABILLUPS1 said: About 30 hours continuous snow on the 12z NAM for SE Virginia from around midnight Friday to Saturday morning - model now combines the FROPA snow and the 2nd wave. Close to an all-timer if it verifies. Va Beach here....looks like this may really happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 It is definitely a sinking feeling in the Triangle at this point with these trends. I may have to chase northeast. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 7 minutes ago, msuwx said: I'm afraid it's now a trend over the last couple of cycles. 6z RGEM, 6z NAM, and 12z NAM all went in that direction. Yeah sheesh. Looking at things seemed the NAM family made the trough a little more diffuse and spread out; less sharp and the precip must of responded to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 A VERY good analog of this system in the January 28 event last year. Arctic front with late LP development along it. This storm has colder air to work with but dang the Synoptics line up incredibly similar to this setup and the snow map is very similar to what modeling is showing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 1 hour ago, senc30 said: I know everyone is excited about the snow but being here in Jacksonville, I am extremely concerned about a catastrophic ice event. Am I over thinking this or am I right to be worried? I'm in Jacksonville as well, models haven't been looking good for us in regards to ice potential. Kinda nervous about it as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 The triangle is still looking good. I'd be completely happy with 1" of snow that we can at least go out in and kids can play in. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 I will say this- I’m not pushing the panic button yet unless the euro/cmc cave at 12z. CAMs struggle with LP development due to convective feedback and we really aren’t in the timeframe thar is considered to be their wheelhouse yet. The 6z euro and 0z Canadian had actually trended very favorably from their previous runs. Definitely more on edge than 24 hours ago but still feel like central NC-east is in a good spot 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beach Snow Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 I think we need to see what RGEM will show. The RGEM is superior to the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VARTV Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 14 minutes ago, EverythingisEverything said: Va Beach here....looks like this may really happen. You just jinks us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 RGEM looks much like the 0z Euro. More suppressed than last run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 RGEM is decent for Raleigh east but definitely not the amounts from 6z 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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