SteveRDU Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 8 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: I think we're seeing a consensus with the models. Yes, the precip will be frozen for many of us lol - that much we know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 0z ICON is a hit for Eastern NC, SE VA... NAM ✔️ Rgem ✔️ Icon ✔️ for some 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 The resemblance on the 00z NAM vs the 00z RGEM is insane. Kuchera maps . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Don't want to jinx it but things look better on the GFS. I think a run with tangible improvements is on the way 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 How in the world is this a Snow sounding... Wouldn't this be ZR?Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 3 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said: How in the world is this a Snow sounding... Wouldn't this be ZR? Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Hard to tell but it looks like it might stay right at 32 F at 850 millibars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Welcome to the party GFS! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beach Snow Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 GFS looks better throwing precip all the way back to western NC 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Oz suite Nam ✔️ RGEM ✔️ Icon ✔️ (eastern NC/SE VA) GFS ✔️ 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Well, looks like this is trending towards a sleet storm for RDU and points SE. The more amped it is, the more sleet we get. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Could just about throw a wet snowball into the sleet zone from Cary 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LKN Winter WX Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 GFS out to 78 looks juicier for western NC parts and just as good for ENC.. definitely an expanded moisture field being thrown back west! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 The 0z NAM, RGEM and GFS kuchera maps all look almost identical 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 How's the saying go... To get the heaviest snow you gotta be able to smell the rain sleet. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 2 minutes ago, wncsnow said: A definite improvement in my neck if the woods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 I would take that over a black out Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunBlade Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 31 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: RGEM looks like the NAM... The NAM moved toward the 18z RGEM solution so good to see the 00z RGEM the same. 18z RGEM was the first I saw with the upper levels like we’ve seen the last few runs. And while the Euro was drier it was still similar earlier in the run to the RGEM and now NAM. RGEM is a little faster with the northern wave dropping down than the NAM so the low moves out sooner. If we can get some more interaction with the southern wave things would likely be even better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghicks Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 guess we will see what the canadian and euro have to say next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 4 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: Well, looks like this is trending towards a sleet storm for RDU and points SE. The more amped it is, the more sleet we get. I know I posted this entire sleet manifesto a little earlier but the caveat is that if that northern shortwave keeps digging southward and retains some of its punch/integrity, we really get the best of both worlds. Storm would be able to draw more moisture and heights would be depressed (and overall temp profiles would look a lot better). Amped doesn't necessarily mean more mixing issues if the shortwave that's being amped is also digging more to the south. 4 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 19, 2022 Author Share Posted January 19, 2022 7 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: The 0z NAM, RGEM and GFS kuchera maps all look almost identical Almost. Lol. NAM dumps almost nine inches here while the GFS is still zero. RGEM threads the middle of the two. However, the GFS was an improvement compared to earlier runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 GFS trending further west over the past 3 runs. We had a significant winter storm across much of the state on Jan 17, 2018 that reminds me of this setup. Seemed like the GFS trended further west with the moisture each run right up until go time and the NAM captured a much more organized system before the globals caught on. https://products.climate.ncsu.edu/weather/winter/event/?e=627 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunBlade Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Yea GFS is looking more like the others in the upper levels but the southern wave is still left out to dry, just not as bad as the 18z run. 18z GFS popped a second low off the coast of Florida because of the leftover southern wave. At least this run there’s more interaction between the waves. In the end, it’s another trend to the upper levels we are seeing in other models which is great to start to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshWeather Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 pretty much every model run tonight has put 8+ inches in my backyard. However i've been around too long to light the cigar yet. I do like how they are beginning to come to a consensus though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunBlade Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 9 minutes ago, WXNewton said: GFS trending further west over the past 3 runs. We had a significant winter storm across much of the state on Jan 17, 2018 that reminds me of this setup. Seemed like the GFS trended further west with the moisture each run right up until go time and the NAM captured a much more organized system before the globals caught on. https://products.climate.ncsu.edu/weather/winter/event/?e=627 I was thinking the same thing earlier. Transient slow moving front that popped a low off the coast with good ratios and ground temps if I remember correctly. Our other hope in these parts is a low bombing off the coast but that brings convection issues from the gulf and tight gradients as well. Always threading the needle around here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 0zSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 GEFS looks pretty similar to 18Z, a smidge more precip west of 85. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Hi-Res models consistently giving North GA a decent snow, globals and ensembles saying mostly bone dry. Not sure what to think. NWS Atlanta and GSP are in a really tough spot right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 NAM ✔️ RGEM ✔️ ICON ✔️ (Eastern NC/SE VA) GFS ✔️ GEFS ✔️ 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Models really look good for Charlotte northeast through the Triangle and up to SE VA. They are showing a definite consensus with the heaviest totals in that area. So, either the models are going to be totally off or they start falling apart 48 hours out if this doesn't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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