January 20-22 “bring the mojo” winter storm threat

[Prismshine Productions]

Just want to point out that 18z ECMWF has that streak of moisture in the Gulf that was not on the 12z run... This might be a Daily Double on the 0z if it holds

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[StantonParkHoya]

1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said:

Hate to say this, but this goes for especially up my way, watching the models the past few days on this has proven , the EURO is no longer the King.... GFS has dethroned it. Change my mind.

I think they met in the middle 

[PantherJustin]

3 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

One run isn't a trend really..  Gotta keep watching.  For those with access to the ECMWF, what in the synoptics changed?

Exactly …..if ever a storm to ignore Anything but ensembles it’s this one…. A “Trend” would be 2-3 straight runs of majority of ensemble movement one way or another …. The Ops are useless Jmo 

[TARHEELPROGRAMMER88]

2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Folks like me in Virginia. Eastern NC still looks good.

Thanks. I wish the snow would come down in bunches for all of us in VA, NC, SC, and GA

[Prismshine Productions]

Thanks. I wish the snow would come down in bunches for all of us in VA, NC, SC, and GA

0z UKIE

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[BornAgain13]

2 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

I think they met in the middle 

GFS has been pretty consistent with not amplifying the system.... Euro went from amplifying to almost "poof." for VA except for extreme SE VA. Will have to keep an eye out.

[NorthHillsWx]

I mean, we’re talking about consecutive days now of model runs and if you’re in central NC-SE Virginia you have to be feeling pretty good right now. Western areas, I get the concern. Just make sure you’re posting what area when making blanket statements about trends looking bad or models looking dry bc there is a large, snow deprived chunk of this forum that continues to look really really good for a moderate snowstorm at this point 

[Beach Snow]

1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I mean, we’re talking about consecutive days now of model runs and if you’re in central NC-SE Virginia you have to be feeling pretty good right now. Western areas, I get the concern. Just make sure you’re posting what area when making blanket statements about trends looking bad or models looking dry bc there is a large, snow deprived chunk of this forum that continues to look really really good for a moderate snowstorm at this point 

My bust on that. However as a whole and this particular forum is the SE that run was “drier” as a whole for the said forum. Trust me I’m in SE Va and elated but when you see QPF backing off in the western part of the state opposed to 12z well you have to wonder what future runs will hold. That run was drier qpf wise for everyone.

[wncsnow]

I do hope SE VA cashes in, they haven't had a good storm in a while

[KeepPounding]

More shortwave fun. This time the southern wave gets strung out hence it being drier.

Prior to that it was actually similar to the RGEM with the northern waves. There’s a second piece of energy that starts to interact with the southern wave. But the RGEM doesn’t leave as much of the southern wave behind as the Euro does.

The prior Euro run didn’t have that second piece of northern energy. So while drier now it looks like a closer consensus on what waves are available but how they interact is still up in the air.




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[Ghicks]

im in surry county northwest nc and i feel like this one is almost a done deal for being a miss. I am hoping folks elsewhere reel this one in however with these models who knows whats gonna happen. i'd be worried about this system getting to far suppressed for central and eastern nc but hopefully it wont 

[NorthHillsWx]

2 minutes ago, Beach Snow said:

My bust on that. However as a whole and this particular forum is the SE that run was “drier” as a whole for the said forum. Trust me I’m in SE Va and elated but when you see QPF backing off in the western part of the state opposed to 12z well you have to wonder what future runs will hold. That run was drier qpf wise for everyone.

It definitely was drier overall… But it was less amped, less mixing, and a lot of us started with this mornings euro output of 2-3 inches of sleet and are now looking at 5-8 inches of snow. Definitely trends to watch but imo it was playing catch up to some of the other solutions that have been less amped all day. 

[Beach Snow]

Just now, NorthHillsWx said:

It definitely was drier overall… But it was less amped, less mixing, and a lot of us started with this mornings euro output of 2-3 inches of sleet and are now looking at 5-8 inches of snow. Definitely trends to watch but imo it was playing catch up to some of the other solutions that have been less amped all day. 

Agreed, i truly believe and have been beating down the door that the Canadian has nailed this one. Run after run after run with the almost same solution except today but the OP wasn’t even close to the ensembles and most Mets discounted the OP because of that

[BornAgain13]

Anyone have the 18z EPS or Control?

[EarlGrey]

This far out, is the NWS usually over or under for snow totals?

[Prismshine Productions]

Anyone have the 18z EPS or Control?

Only out to hr42

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[TARHEELPROGRAMMER88]

2 minutes ago, EarlGrey said:

This far out, is the NWS usually over or under for snow totals?

Under, from my experience. Which is actually a safe bet.

[Prismshine Productions]

Anyone have the 18z EPS or Control?

NE trend continues, less precip

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[buckeyefan1]

18z  

12z

[NorthHillsWx]

14 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

18z  

12z

I mean, that’s almost identical. Thanks! 

[PantherJustin]

Just now, NorthHillsWx said:

I mean, that’s almost identical. Thanks! 

Actually went up 1/2” or so in Some Western areas 

[scottk]

Local forecasters starting to chime in here in NE SC, I think I’m starting to resign myself to a weekend of ice

[EarlGrey]

from WRAL. 
 

The wedge is real with a tight gradient.

[flotownsc]

Local forecasters starting to chime in here in NE SC, I think I’m starting to resign myself to a weekend of ice

What’s your location? Florence here.


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[WxJordan]

Quote

My current forecast for this system is pretty broad at the moment due to uncertainty in the models, but most of the data shows the best chance of wintry weather to be east of I-77 roughly. In matter of fact, some areas in northeast NC may see some large snow totals from this event (purple shaded). Blue areas may see moderate snow and a wintry mix from the front, while the red areas are expected to see the chance for damaging freezing rain. In the west, light freezing rain is expected in parts of South Carolina with the chance for light snow over the mountains, foothills, and western piedmont.

All the models really seem to be coming together on this general idea. Big snows (6+ inches) probably for many areas in northeast NC and southeast VA. I can even see some snow stretching back to CLT and GSO, but the main event will be towards the coast. I am really getting worried about the overrunning ice threat in SE N and NE SC. Could see a really bad situation in this area. Western NC will probably miss out unless something major changes.

[burrel2]

fwiw, (probably nothing). But the 48hr Hrrr lines up with the nam/rgem if not better with the phase.

[ILMRoss]

Going to put on my pessimistic hat on for a second... (I don't like making these posts so this is the only one I'm doing for this storm...)

The snow maps for the triangle are beautiful. Lovely. It's a picturesque spike that punctures straight through Wake County. I'll tell you how I'm interpreting it right now- I'm mentally taking it and shoving it 30 miles to the north. I've sat through so many of these storm threads and seen Wake County in a lovely position just to see sleet. I've been snakebitten so. many. times. We are consistently finding new ways to end up with sleet. So as I see more of these perfect snow maps the pit in my stomach just grows larger.

I'm currently put off by how skinny and shaky the modeled snow corridor is, it really leaves no margin of error. If our system ends up weaker and strung out, the snow corridor isn't simply shoved south- it will shrink with decreased lift and precipitation will struggle to get past, say, highway 1. A stronger version of our current system will likely shift the sleet line north of Wake County. Raleigh folks: we look good right now but man I don't like this tenuous balancing act. 

What I'm looking and hoping for tonight is our northern shortwave somehow beefing up a little more- dropping down with a little more pep in its step- and being able to dig south more. qpf wouldn't be an issue and I think this would depress heights enough to make mixing in the triangle way less of an issue. 

[GunBlade]

Let’s see where the next few NAM frames go. Short waves looking more like the RGEM and Euro to this point which could be an improvement over the last run where the southern stream ejected the northern stream. 

[StantonParkHoya]

12 minutes ago, ILMRoss said:

Going to put on my pessimistic hat on for a second... (I don't like making these posts so this is the only one I'm doing for this storm...)

The snow maps for the triangle are beautiful. Lovely. It's a picturesque spike that punctures straight through Wake County. I'll tell you how I'm interpreting it right now- I'm mentally taking it and shoving it 30 miles to the north. I've sat through so many of these storm threads and seen Wake County in a lovely position just to see sleet. I've been snakebitten so. many. times. We are consistently finding new ways to end up with sleet. So as I see more of these perfect snow maps the pit in my stomach just grows larger.

I'm currently put off by how skinny and shaky the modeled snow corridor is, it really leaves no margin of error. If our system ends up weaker and strung out, the snow corridor isn't simply shoved south- it will shrink with decreased lift and precipitation will struggle to get past, say, highway 1. A stronger version of our current system will likely shift the sleet line north of Wake County. Raleigh folks: we look good right now but man I don't like this tenuous balancing act. 

What I'm looking and hoping for tonight is our northern shortwave somehow beefing up a little more- dropping down with a little more pep in its step- and being able to dig south more. qpf wouldn't be an issue and I think this would depress heights enough to make mixing in the triangle way less of an issue. 

I feel like I just watched a horror movie

[CaryWx]

13 minutes ago, ILMRoss said:

Going to put on my pessimistic hat on for a second... (I don't like making these posts so this is the only one I'm doing for this storm...)

The snow maps for the triangle are beautiful. Lovely. It's a picturesque spike that punctures straight through Wake County. I'll tell you how I'm interpreting it right now- I'm mentally taking it and shoving it 30 miles to the north. I've sat through so many of these storm threads and seen Wake County in a lovely position just to see sleet. I've been snakebitten so. many. times. We are consistently finding new ways to end up with sleet. So as I see more of these perfect snow maps the pit in my stomach just grows larger.

I'm currently put off by how skinny and shaky the modeled snow corridor is, it really leaves no margin of error. If our system ends up weaker and strung out, the snow corridor isn't simply shoved south- it will shrink with decreased lift and precipitation will struggle to get past, say, highway 1. A stronger version of our current system will likely shift the sleet line north of Wake County. Raleigh folks: we look good right now but man I don't like this tenuous balancing act. 

What I'm looking and hoping for tonight is our northern shortwave somehow beefing up a little more- dropping down with a little more pep in its step- and being able to dig south more. qpf wouldn't be an issue and I think this would depress heights enough to make mixing in the triangle way less of an issue. 

It does look like a little of your hope might be happening on the 0z NAM.  Not a lot, but some